069
FXUS63 KLOT 082330
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
630 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued dry and seasonably warm through Thursday.

- Unseasonably warm and breezy with the potential for an
  elevated risk of brush fires Friday afternoon.

- Significant cooldown early next week with the potential for
  nighttime widespread frost and localized freeze conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

A strengthening low-level ridge over the western Great Lakes
will shift across the area through Wednesday as a prominent mid-
level ridge edges eastward across the northern Great Plains. A
weak backdoor cold front associated with a synoptic NE wind
shift behind the passing surface ridge will wash out across the
southwest CWA on Wednesday before winds veer SW by Friday amid
warming conditions. Gusts to 25 mph or higher combined with RH
values potentially under 30% will result in another elevated
fire risk Friday afternoon. A low over northern Ontario Thursday
night will then push a weakening dry cold front over the area
Friday night into Saturday.

After an extended period of near to above normal temps, a
significant cool down is expected late weekend into early next
week. Blustery northwest winds will usher in the coolest air so
far this season as a core of H8 temps as low as -5C shift across
the Great Lakes region. After max temps struggle to rise out of
the mid 50s Monday and Tuesday, widespread low temps in the low
to mid 30s are becoming more likely, with perhaps some
localized temps below freezing. With the main surface ridge
remaining west of the forecast area Monday night, continued
light NW gradient flow may limit coverage of frost.

Widespread precip this weekend into next week looks unlikely as
current guidance suggests that better dynamic support with a
series of embedded waves will remain north of the area. But
moisture does appear sufficient for some sporadic diurnally
driven showers Sunday and Monday we well as a higher coverage of
lake effect showers in northwest Indiana Sunday morning into
Tuesday.

Kluber

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds out
of the northwest around and less than 10 knots are expected to
diminish after 01Z region wide. A weak lake breeze moving
onshore should wash out just as it passes over ORD/MDW,
prompting the lighter prevailing conditions there out of the
gate. Winds will turn to the northeast Wednesday morning
increasing to just around 10 knots in the afternoon.

DK

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

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