497 FXUS63 KIND 021841 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 241 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazy skies remain into Tuesday - Warmer temperatures into the 80s through Wednesday - Periodic storm chances from Wednesday through early next week - Potential for a few strong to severe storms Wednesday PM; isolated damaging wind gusts, severe hail, and locally heavy rain possible && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)... Issued at 239 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Surface high pressure and upper ridging will continue to provide quiet weather to central Indiana throughout the short term period. Elevated smoke will persist across the area through the period as well. Some cirrus will pass through from time to time into this evening. Overnight, some moisture will move northeast into the area and bring some scattered mid level clouds. The mid clouds will move through Tuesday morning, then, depending on how much low level moisture advects into the area on southwest flow, some cumulus may pop as well. The result of the previous will be partly cloudy conditions. As the surface high moves east on Tuesday, the increasing pressure gradient between it and an approaching cold front will bring breezy conditions, with wind gusts around 25 mph possible. Temperatures will be warmer than previous nights tonight with lows in the upper 50s to around 60. Warm advection on Tuesday will push temperatures in the middle to upper 80s. Wouldn`t rule out 90 degrees in the northwest where conditions have been drier than normal for a while. && .LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)... Issued at 239 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Upper ridging will shift eastward early in the extended with a more active pattern setting up across central Indiana. Initially, an approaching shortwave will push a frontal boundary into the region on Wednesday. A narrow band of deeper moisture ahead of the boundary and increasing dynamics supports the potential for numerous PM showers or storms within a moderately unstable environment. Guidance shows the associated upper wave weakening upon approach, but modest strengthening of mid-level flow over the unstable airmass could promote a few strong to severe storms. The primary threats are damaging wind gusts, severe hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Expect the aforementioned front to become quasi-stationary Wednesday night into Thursday once mean flow becomes parallel to the boundary. This will keep rain chances in the forecast at times through at least early next week as multiple upper level impulses track along the baroclinic zone. A low threat for more strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out late this week as even deeper moisture surges northward promoting moderate instability at times. The main uncertainty for organized convection is how much deep-layer shear will be present since the upper level disturbances moving through are rather weak. The flooding threat is also elevated late this week and possibly even into next week due to the potential for multiple rounds of storms. Latest guidance suggest convection on Friday should help to shunt the frontal boundary south providing a period of dry weather sometime Friday night into Saturday. However, increasing model variability by this point limits confidence so low POPs remain, predominately across southern portions of central Indiana where uncertainty is higher. Precipitation chances increase late weekend into early next week as another approaching system lifts the front back north. Forecast confidence is much lower by early next week due to significant model discrepancies. The weather pattern will likely remain active somewhere over the eastern CONUS though with an elevated flooding threat persisting. Expect temperatures to start off very warm early in the period thanks to antecedent ridging and increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching system Wednesday. Frequent opportunities for precipitation and greater cloud cover should then return temperatures closer to seasonal late this week. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1242 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Impacts: - Some gusts over 20kt possible Tuesday afternoon Discussion: VFR conditions are expected through the period. Elevated smoke will continue across the sites. Some cirrus will pass from time to time into the overnight. Later in the overnight into Tuesday morning, some scattered clouds around 6000ft may move through. Winds will generally remain 10kt or less until later Tuesday morning into afternoon. By Tuesday afternoon, some gust over 20kt are possible. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...Melo AVIATION...50