688 FXUS63 KIND 101327 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 927 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry with warming trend mid-week, increasing humidity - Precipitation chances return late week and will persist into next week && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 927 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Sunny but hazy start to the morning as high pressure has expanded across the Ohio Valley. 13Z temperatures were in the 60s with light W/SW winds. Quiet weather is expected today with high pressure in control across the region. Northwest flow aloft will aid in maintaining smoke from the Canadian wildfires in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere for much of the day with a hazy...milky look to the sky. Expect scattered diurnal cu development into the afternoon but model soundings do keep dry air within the boundary layer that should limit overall coverage of the cu field. Low level thermals support highs in the mid and upper 70s with westerly winds gradually becoming light and variable by this evening. Zone and grid updates out. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Early This Morning... Quiet weather will continue as a surface cold front has moved southeast of central Indiana. There will be some passing mid clouds, especially south, as they traverse through an upper trough. Today... The area will remain in northwest flow aloft on the back side of an upper trough, keeping some cooler air aloft over the region. This will allow scattered cumulus to pop up today, becoming broken at times. In addition, another round of elevated wildfire smoke will move in. This will keep skies hazier than normal. The result of the above will be partly cloudy conditions at times throughout the day. At the surface, high pressure will be in control. The available sunshine today will help temperatures peak in the middle and upper 70s. Tonight... A quiet night is expected with high pressure remaining the dominant influence. Cumulus will dissipate by early evening, just leaving some passing elevated smoke at times. Lows will generally be in the middle and upper 50s. && .LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)... Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Split flow will continue through much of the period, with the jet stream staying north of central Indiana. An upper level trough will eventually move northeast into the area, which will keep rain chances around. Wednesday into Thursday... Wednesday will be quiet with upper ridging in place. Warmer air moving in will bring highs in the mid 80s. On Thursday, the northern stream will bring a cold front into northern Indiana. Most of the chances for rain should remain north of the forecast area, but can`t absolutely rule out an isolated shower or storm reaching the northern forecast area. Will have some slight chance PoPs Thursday afternoon north, but with low confidence. Friday and beyond... Uncertainty remains higher than normal through the remainder of the long term period. As noted above, an upper trough will move from the south central part of the country northeast into the area. Models are not consistent with the timing of this though, which leads to the uncertainty. Before the trough arrives, the old surface front will remain in northern Indiana. Southerly flow will bring in moisture, and with high temperatures in the 80s, instability will thus build in the afternoons. Scattered showers and storms will be possible before the trough arrives. Will thus have PoPs throughout the long term period. At the moment, this weekend looks to have the highest chances for rain, but that could change. Even if the trough moves through quicker, zonal flow could set up, bringing occasional rounds of forcing which would bring periodic chances for rain regardless. Highs in the 80s with lows in the 60s will be the rule through the long term. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 613 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Impacts: - Broken VFR cumulus this afternoon for some sites Discussion: VFR conditions are expected through the period. Cumulus will pop up late morning and become broken at times this afternoon, mainly at the northern sites. These will dissipate with loss of heating this evening. Winds become west at around 10 mph during the day. A few gusts around 15kt are possible. Winds will diminish this evening. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ UPDATE...Ryan SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...50