099
FXUS63 KIWX 140724
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
324 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Have removed chances for rain and isolated thunderstorm today.

- Mild today with highs around 65 to 70, turning cooler Tuesday.

- Strong to severe storms possible Friday into Friday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025

The initial environment remained quite dry in the low levels.
Have removed rain chances for today given the upper low
remaining west of the area and the front well to the south near
the Ohio River. The upper low will move east and bring chances
for mostly light showers to the forecast area early Tuesday.
There will be a break in the precipitation from late Tuesday
into Thursday before chances increase for severe thunderstorms.
An elevated mixed layer (EML) is expected to arrive Thursday
night and be over the area Friday and persist over the area
Saturday. The EML may be initially capped near the base of the
inversion, but should accentuate severe storms chances Friday
and Friday night. Given the dynamics of the EML with a potential
cap >2.0C it appears the best chances for severe thunderstorms
will be late in the day Friday and into Friday evening.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Warm front will lift across the region early this morning but
latest obs and model guidance indicate lower levels will remain
too dry for any lower ceilings to develop. Anticipate VFR
through the morning (and beyond) with just high clouds. Weak
cold front will then quickly cross the area later in the
morning through early afternoon. Here again guidance suggests
low levels too day for any precip (even at KFWA). Will
therefore hold dry/VFR for now. Better chance for showers and
MVFR ceilings arrives early Tue morning (just beyond this
forecast window) as CAA ramps up behind passing midlevel
shortwave.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...AGD