581
FXUS63 KPAH 162205
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
505 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- River flooding is ongoing across the region. Water levels will
  be slow to fall this week for many points after cresting.

- Warming through Friday.

- More active pattern comes back Friday night through the
  weekend. Strong to severe storms are possible. Heavy rainfall
  is possible as well.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 502 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Rising heights will help us warm through Friday with a lot of the
area hitting 80 on Friday. Tonight into tomorrow we`ll see some warm
air advection showers develop and move east across the area. Breezy
conditions tomorrow afternoon with gusts of 25-35 mph as the next
system approaches.

As a sfc low tracks from the Plains towards the Great Lakes it will
push a cold front into the area Friday night into Saturday. There is
a limited severe threat Friday night as evidenced by the Day 3 SPC
Marginal risk (level 1 of 5), but some training of storms may be
more of a concern as the front sits over our area for a bit. From
Friday through the weekend the heaviest QPF will be off to our
northwest, but our northwest counties will still see 2-3 inches of
rain possible.

Saturday and Sunday both sport a slight risk (level 2 of 5) right
now. Saturday looks to have 500-1,500 J/kg of MUCAPE present along
with around 60 kts of bulk shear and mid level lapse rates of 6.5-
7.5 degC/km. Sunday looks to have around 1,000 J/kg of MUCAPE,
around 60 kts of bulk shear, and mid level lapse rates of around 6.5
degC/km. Both days will have dew points in the 60s. However, a deep
negatively tilted trof aloft ejects out of the Plains Sunday and
could enhance the local environment further, but there is still some
discrepancy over the timing of this trof.

Next week the EC and the GFS both show dry conditions early in the
week (despite the slight chance, 20%, PoPs the NBM currently has).
Highs look to be pleasant in the 70s through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 502 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

A warm front`s lift north will bring some VFR bases into play,
lowering with time as we warm sector. This will result in
associated shower activity, with lower VFR CIGS and potentially,
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, whose best chance is late tonight-tmrw morning
as the passage occurs, after which we kick in southerlies with
some daytime gustiness.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$