174 FXUS63 KILX 140920 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 420 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy to windy conditions will prevail today through Tuesday across central and southeast IL. Winds will turn WNW in wake of cold front passage into mid morning, with gusts 25-35 mph over central IL into tonight. NW wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph is likely across the area on Tuesday. - An unsettled weather pattern takes shape over IL Thursday through Monday. There is a risk of strong to severe storms late Friday afternoon and Friday evening as a stronger cold front moves southeast across the prairie state. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 The 09Z/4 am surface map shows a cold front nearing I-55 and extending northward to 998 mb low pressure east of Thunder Bay Canada along the northwest shores of Lake Superior. Broken mid/high clouds were over the IL river valley while mostly clear skies prevailed from I-55 southeast ahead of the cold front. Mild temps were in the upper 50s and lower 60s over central IL and mid 60s along and south of highway 50. The latest CAMs have trended quicker with cold front moving se from I-55 to se of Lawrence county during mid morning. Most of the CAMs look pretty dry over CWA today but continued to carry a slight chance of showers for a few hours this morning (mainly se of the IL river) as front moves through. SPC day1 outlook keeps marginal to slight risk of severe storms this afternoon well east of IL over WV, central/eastern KY, central/southern Ohio and se Indiana. It has general risk of thunder this morning in eastern IL but fell the chance of thunderstorms is fairly low (less than 20%) so did not mention thunder this morning in east central/se IL. WNW winds behind cold front to gust 25-35 mph over central IL especially from I-72 north and winds remain gusty tonight and into Tue as they turn more NW. Highs today in the mid 60s over much of central IL with some lower 60s north of Peoria, and upper 60s to near 70F in southeast IL. Clouds to increase se of I-55 during this morning, while clouds then decrease from the nw during the afternoon over central IL (though increasing again during this evening as short wave trof approaches from the NW). A strong upper level trof digging into the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes tonight to bring chance of showers to Iowa and WI during this evening and have slight chance of showers for areas nw of Peoria late evening and then slight pops shift northeast of CWA overnight. Cooler lows overnight in the lower 40s. The deep upper level trof is over the Eastern US on Tue with IL in a NW upper level flow and shower chances east/ne of IL. More stratocumulus clouds to be over ne CWA and east central IL on Tue with these clouds decreasing from the west during Tue afternoon as upper level trof shifts further east. Breezy NW winds gusting up to30-35 mph on Tue over much of CWA. Cooler highs Tue in the mid to upper 50s, coolest ne CWA. High pressure settling into the MS river valley Tue night to bring fair skies and winds to diminish. This will be our coolest night this week in the mid to upper 30s. Some frost possible overnight Tue night into early Wed morning especially from Lincoln northeast where a frost advisory may eventually be needed. Wednesday should be a nice spring day with nearby surface high pressure drifting east of IL by Wed afternoon and upper level ridge building into the eastern Plains. Highs in the low to mid 60s with lighter winds with increasing high clouds from the west during Wed afternoon. A disturbance ejecting out of Colorado into MO by Wed evening could bring chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms portions of central and especially west central IL by overnight Wed night. Chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms spread eastward over rest of CWA on Thursday as warm front passes through. Breezy SSE winds brings milder highs Thu of 65 to 70F, warmest in west central IL. Thu night we have best chances (40-60%) of showers and thunderstorms over northern CWA closer to warm front with slight chance in southeast IL from I-70 south. SPC day4 outlook has 15% chance of severe storms over much of Iowa into far ne IL near the Iowa border for Thu night. Will need to watch nw CWA for hail chances Thu night. A cold front will be nw of central IL during much of the day Friday with breezy sw winds bringing warm highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s and higher dewpoints in the upper 50s/lower 60s. We have a 30-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday with better chance northern/nw CWA closer to cold front. This cold front to push se through CWA during Friday night though Ecmwf is quicker with pushing cold front into the IL river valley as early as Friday afternoon. We should see an uptick in convection chances as front moves into area late Fri afternoon and Friday evening and SPC day5 continues 15% risk of severe storms over all but far southern IL. Cold front to slip south of IL on Saturday with northern CWA drying out while carried 30-50% of showers from I-72 south with isolated thunderstorms in southeast IL. Cooler highs Sat in the mid to upper 60s, with lower 70s by Lawrenceville. Forecast models continue to show a strong cutoff low/trof moving into central/southern plains on Easter Sunday and pushing front back ne as a warm front toward central IL. Will see increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from sw to ne later Sat night and Easter Sunday and good chances of showers/thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday as storm system moves near IL. Highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s Sunday/Monday with mid 70s far se IL by Lawrenceville. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8-14 Day outlook for Apr 21-27th has 60-70% chance of above normal temperatures over central IL and 70-75% chance of above normal temps in southeast IL. There is a 35-45% chance of above normal precipitation during this period. So the mild and unsettled weather pattern looks to continue during Easter week. 07 && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Broken high cirrus will remain over the sites overnight and into the morning. Then cigs will drop to around 15kft at SPI, DEC, and CMI; while cigs around 25kft remain at BMI and PIA. Mid level clouds around 11-15kft will remain over the sites for the afternoon and into the evening hours. Winds will be southwest-west to start but during the overnight hours, all sites will see winds switch to westerly as a front moves across the area. Speeds will increase tomorrow with gusts of 23-26kts at all sites in the afternoon. Auten && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$