832 FXUS63 KDVN 110712 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 212 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near freezing lows and frost possible for some early Saturday morning. - Above normal temperatures for the weekend. - Cooler weather toward the middle of next week with the potential for more near freezing lows and frost for some next Wednesday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Latest GOES Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows a large expanse of stratus from northern MN through eastern IA and northern IL within a cool advection regime. Regional and local radar has also shown some spotty returns - mainly sprinkles or isolated very light rain. There is however, a large area of clearing taking place into WI aided by dry advection in the low/mid levels on E/NE flow. Overall, the general consensus of the guidance has this drier air advecting into our region supporting decreasing cloudiness for many areas this morning from east to west. CU rule would then support the potential for some BKN cumulus developing with surface heating by afternoon, especially along the Hwy 20 corridor and also across our far western service area. Thus, anticipate generally partly to mostly sunny skies for today. With the anticipation of solar insolation we should get highs back into the mid to upper 50s for most areas, with lower 50s possible where any period of BKN clouds lingers while lower 60s are possible with any longer duration of full sunshine. Tonight, we should see skies become mostly clear as a surface high pressure ridge traverses the area and sets up shop from downstate IL into southern MO by 12z Saturday. As we get on the backside of the ridge late tonight, a developing southerly puff and weak warm advection may prevent a complete bottoming out of temperatures for many. Still, a chilly night is on tap with lows expected to be generally in the low to mid 30s with patchy frost possible. However, sheltered and low lying areas, river valleys, etc. will be favored to be on the cold side of guidance with lows near progged 850 mb temperatures of -1c or 30F, particularly in far eastern IA and northern IL bringing the low risk for some sub-freezing temperatures. Latest NBM probabilities of lows <32F by Saturday morning are around 15-25% in an area bounded by Independence to Cedar Rapids to Macomb to Freeport. The growing season is still not quite in full swing and thus no headlines will be issued, but if you have any outdoor sensitive vegetation it may be a good idea to be a little cautious and either bring it indoors if possible or cover it, although the time period for below freezing doesn`t look to be climatologically significant where it may occur. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 An upper level ridge will shift eastward into the region over the weekend. Attendant height rises will foster a broad warm advection regime. Accompanying southerly surface winds will become gusty both Saturday (west of the Mississippi) and Sunday (area-wide mainly in the morning). This coupled with ample sunshine will boost highs well into the 60s and 70s. Winds don`t look to be too much of a hindrance, and in fact seeing more consensus toward a surface low approaching by Sunday afternoon to slacken the gradient and ease any fire weather concerns. The surface low is attendant to an advancing a progressive shortwave trough that will shift from the Pacific Northwest early in the weekend to the Great Lakes region by late in the day on Monday. Elevated moisture advection late Saturday night and Sunday in advance will lead to shower chances (20-40%) mainly north of Hwy 30. Prior to the shortwave moving into the Great Lakes on Monday it will usher in a cold front late Sunday night. Forcing and moisture look quite limited to support any organized rain chances. Arriving post-frontal on Monday will be some additional shower chances with a bout of mid level frontogenetical forcing in the right entrance region of a 120+ kt Upper Midwest 250-300 mb jet streak. Right now NBM PoPs are low at 15-20% and mainly south, as there will be some dry air to overcome. In the wake of this system, a period of cooler weather is on tap heading into the middle of next week, as high pressure builds in. The threat for near freezing lows and frost will exist, particularly along and north of Hwy 30 late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning where the latest NBM probabilities are 30-50% for temperatures less than 32F by 12z Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Cold advection will continue to usher in lower clouds with MVFR to VFR ceilings overnight and Friday morning. Some spotty sprinkles can`t be ruled out, but no impacts are expected. Eventually any ceilings should become VFR by late Friday morning and Friday afternoon with aid of daytime heating and backdoor dry advection on NNE flow just off the surface (925-850 mb). && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...McClure LONG TERM...McClure AVIATION...McClure