300 FXUS63 KILX 141022 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 522 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers will linger today across portions of east- central and southeast Illinois. Severe weather is not a concern, but there could be a few funnel clouds this afternoon. - A more active weather pattern will bring additional periods of showers and thunderstorms to the region each day between Tuesday and Thursday, with an attendant severe weather and flood risk. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 A compact upper-level trough will continue to meander along the lower Ohio River Valley today, with enough moisture and lift to support widely scattered showers. Hi-res ensemble guidance points the greatest coverage near and south of I-72, with activity increasing later this morning with the heat of the day, then diminishing by evening. Much like yesterday, thunder chances for today are slim. This is primarily due to poor mid-level lapse rates (< 6 C/km) and weak deep-layer shear (< 20 kts), suggesting updrafts will struggle. Additionally, the risk for urban flooding is lower today compared to yesterday. While cloud-layer winds and Corfidi upshear/downshear vectors remain slow, the more anomalous PWATs have begun to peel eastward out of the area. Rather than pockets of 1-2 like we had yesterday, localized amounts between 0.5-1 seem more reasonable for today, and this is supported by the latest HREF QPF guidance. Funnel clouds will be a thing to monitor for today. Guidance from both the HRRR and RAP13 depict quite a bit of vorticity along a sfc boundary positioned somewhere in between I-72 and I-70 by this afternoon. If we can get enough breaks in the clouds to boost low-level lapse rates and low-level vorticity beneath the upper low, there should be enough stretching to support funnel clouds through the afternoon hours. For what its worth, the NST parameter exceeds a value of 3 at times this afternoon across SE Illinois. Dry and seasonably hot conditions return Sunday and Monday as we find ourselves in a bit of blocking pattern (split flow). Deterministic NBM guidance is offering daily highs in the mid 80s, and we see no reason to stray from that forecast. The synoptic pattern becomes more conducive for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday onward, particularly across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley where a moderately buoyant airmass will build beneath a strengthening mid-level jet core. This influx of CAPE & shear will increase the specter of severe weather as early as Tuesday night across our north, perhaps becoming more widespread Wednesday or Wednesday evening. Mid-range guidance remains in reasonable agreement for the back half of next week, with an expansive 594-mb summer high building across the central US. This would provide a spell of dry and hot weather. Current deterministic NBM guidance offers daily highs in the upper 80s by Saturday of next week, but with an upper tail of its guidance in the lower 90s. MJA && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning) Issued at 506 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 IFR/LIFR conditions will gradually improve to MVFR this afternoon as a slow-moving weather system begins to depart eastward. Most guidance supports the stratus lifting and breaking to MVFR prior to 18z, and then improving to VFR by 00z as a shortwave ridge builds into the region from the west. Otherwise, light NE winds will persist through this TAF period. MJA && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$