695 FXUS63 KILX 112344 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 644 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - While isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Illinois River valley Thursday afternoon, the highest rain chances will be Friday and Saturday afternoons, primarily southeast of I-55. Severe weather chances appear low at this time. - While noticeably more humid the next several days, no extreme heat is expected through the period. However, the risk of hazardous temperatures begins to build later next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Mainly thin high clouds with a bit of smoke across the forecast area this afternoon, with some thicker cirrus to our southwest headed our way. With south winds, some moisture has been advecting into central Illinois, with dew points into the lower 60s in many areas. Water vapor imagery continues to show a large upper low over western Texas, which should slowly lift northeast into eastern Oklahoma by Thursday afternoon. For the most part, dry weather should prevail during this period. However, both the NAM and GFS are showing some surface based CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg by late afternoon northwest of I-55, ahead of a weak ripple in the upper flow near a nearly stationary front north of I-80. Some 20% PoP`s are in place for late afternoon across the Illinois River valley. However, better rain chances would be closer to early Friday morning as the upper low begins to move into Missouri, with the HREF showing about 40-50% probabilities of measurable rain between midnight and sunrise Friday. .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 The upper low should gradually become more of an open wave as it lifts into the lower Ohio Valley to start the weekend. Rain chances appear highest both Friday and Saturday afternoons. Temperatures will be held down somewhat with the rain, though the humidity will remain quite noticeable with the extra moisture. Longer range models seem to be coming into better agreement with the trends for early next week. While an upper ridge tries to amplify over the western Plains, a series of shortwaves will ride along its periphery. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will help provide some dry periods Monday through Wednesday, but several ensemble members suggest increasing potential for MCS activity in this pattern. Geelhart && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening) Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 00z TAF period. BKN-OVC high clouds will persist tonight into Thursday...with diurnal Cu developing toward midday. NAM Cu-rule and forecast soundings suggest SCT to perhaps occasionally BKN Cu at around 5000ft, especially along/west of I-55. Several CAMs are showing widely scattered convection popping up during peak heating across this area as well...similar to what is currently happening across western Missouri. Areal coverage will remain low, so have opted not to include thunder at the western terminals at this time. Winds will be S at less than 10kt tonight, then S/SW at around 10kt on Thursday. Barnes && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$