374 FXUS63 KDVN 131047 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 547 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloudy and humid day today with chances for rain, especially along and south of I-80 as an upper level low lumbers into the area. - Active pattern expected to continue this weekend with the possibility of pop-up showers and storms. Into next week, pattern becomes more organized and chances for strong to even severe storms return to the region. - Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the period with slightly lower humidity this weekend before rich gulf moisture moves into the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 An upper level low south of the area was slowly moving north and east into the area this morning. Temperatures in the 60s with dewpoints also in 60s were found region-wide. Rain showers associated with this upper level were slowly moving across the southern CWA. Moisture is expected to increase across the layer, with dewpoints reaching into the upper 60s to low 70s across the area today. Two things of interest in today`s forecast, first the chances for showers and second the cloud cover and its impact on temperatures and humidity today. First, showers are expected to overspread the southern CWA this morning. CAMs and synoptic models keep better QPF along and south of I-80. Looking at lapse rates, thunder will be hard to come by with these showers, but can`t rule it out completely. With PWATs approaching 2 inches in our SE today, moderate to heavy rain is possible with any shower. If convection can get deep enough for lightning development, that storm will likely lead to short-lived heavy rain leading to ponding of water and reduced visibility. This will be isolated in nature and will include in the HWO. Looking at cloud cover, this will likely keep temperatures cooler across the area. Highs in the mid to upper 70s are expected. With dewpoints approaching 70 degrees, especially along and south of I-80, it will feel quite humid across the area. The higher Tds rapidly move east of the area tonight as easterly flow north of the upper low tries to usher in drier and cooler air overnight. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Ridging builds west of the area at the start of the period, as NW flow affects our area. This ridge flattens into the weekend as return flow starts to bring warmer more moist air into the area through the weekend. Multiple weak waves will transverse the area through the weekend, leading to pop-up showers and even some storms. Lapse rates don`t look at that impressive, so much like today, think mostly showers are expected from this pattern through the weekend. By Monday, PWATs over 2 inches move into the area as H85 temps in the low 20Cs overspread the area. Waves start to get more organized with the strongest wave Wednesday into Thursday as temperatures above average are forecast. This wave will bring better flow and shear to the area. This will lead to strong and even severe storms across the region next week. As earlier shifts noted, we are entering our typical summer MCS pattern where actual forecast skill is limited this far out. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 540 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 VFR cigs are becoming MVFR, especially at BRL and eventually MLI today as an upper level low moves across the area. Rain showers are making their way north towards MLI. This precip will miss CID and DBQ. IFR cigs could occur at BRL especially with the low overhead. Otherwise, thunder is on the low end today. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gibbs LONG TERM...Gibbs AVIATION...Gibbs