796 FXUS63 KDVN 110410 CCA AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1110 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 ...Updated for 06z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon will dissipate by late this evening into early tonight. - Above normal temperatures for the weekend. Warm and windy conditions Sunday suggest the potential for an elevated fire risk. - Around or above normal temperatures look to be in store for much of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 An area of clear skies across portions of central and eastern Iowa during the late morning to early afternoon has led to a quick build up in SBCAPE and development of scattered showers and isolated storms. The main corridor of showers stretches from around Benton County toward Hancock County and extends to the west and soutwest. SPC mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, negligible effective shear, and steep mid-level lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. Some of the stronger cells this afternoon into the early evening could produce small hail and gusty winds, but no severe weather is expected. As the instability wanes late this evening, expect the majority of the showers and isolated storms to dissipate. For the rest of the night, low clouds will move back over the region from the N/NE and there could be occasional sprinkles or light isolated showers through this period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Friday through Saturday night Assessment...Very high (>90%) confidence of temperatures going above normal. After cooler than normal temperatures Friday, the building upper level ridge in the Plains will push temperatures above normal for Saturday. Sunday and Sunday night Assessment...A near certainty (>95%) of temperatures above normal. Low (<25%) confidence on rain. Windy and warm conditions will be seen across the area on Sunday. The warm temperatures and wind may combine to create an elevated fire risk during the daylight hours. The global models indicate a weak upper level disturbance will move across the upper Midwest during the day and potentially bring a risk of rain. Moisture is somewhat limited and the better forcing associated with the system runs from Minnesota into Wisconsin. Several of the deterministic model runs suggest dry conditions. While most of the ensemble members of the GEFS/EPS/GEPS suggest dry conditions, there are some members of each ensemble group suggesting a risk of rain for the area. As such the model consensus now has a 20 to 25 percent chance of showers and some thunderstorms for areas north of Highway 30 during the daylight hours Sunday. Timing of the disturbance will be the key but if rain occurs, it would be more favored during the afternoon and early evening. Much of the area will likely see dry conditions Sunday and Sunday night. Monday through Wednesday Assessment...medium to high (60-80%) confidence of a trend toward above normal temperatures. Temperatures early next week will initially start out above normal on Monday before a cold front sweeps through the area and lowers temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. As mentioned yesterday moisture is somewhat limited ahead of the front and the timing of the front will dictate how warm Monday gets. The new model suite now suggests the front moving through during the morning which is faster compared to 24 hours ago. Max temperatures as a result have trended lower but are still at or slightly above normal. Like yesterday, the models continue to indicate any rain will be along/ahead of the front with fairly good subsidence behind the front. This means that the rain that occurs Monday will be fairly brief in nature for any one location. Right now the model consensus has a 20 percent chance of rain Monday morning across southeast portions of the area with a dry afternoon. Tuesday and Wednesday will be a bit cooler as a cool Canadian high moves into the Midwest. However, temperatures look to be close to normal for mid-April. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Cold advection will continue to usher in lower clouds with MVFR to VFR ceilings overnight and Friday morning. Some spotty sprinkles can`t be ruled out, but no impacts are expected. Eventually any ceilings should become VFR by late Friday morning and Friday afternoon with aid of daytime heating and backdoor dry advection on NNE flow just off the surface (925-850 mb). && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...08/Uttech AVIATION...McClure