157 FXUS63 KDVN 141036 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 536 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 ...Updated for 12z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy/windy through Tuesday with an elevated fire risk. - Chance (30-60%) for showers late this afternoon and evening. Some showers could produce 40-50+ mph wind gusts. - Cooler weather midweek with the potential for freezing lows and frost late Tuesday night/early Wednesday, particularly north of I-80. - Wetter pattern setting up for the latter half of the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 310 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough traversing the Upper Midwest early this morning. This has aided in sending a cold front into the area, which is in the process of moving through our far eastern counties. A brief bout of gusty winds 20-30+ kt have been occurring after the frontal passage, particularly across parts of east central/southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri within a corridor of 3-4 mb/3 hr pressure rises. This has also tapped a residual wedge of warmer air just off the surface and actually led to a brief temperature rebound/rise into the lower to mid 60s with those initial gusty NW winds. However, the cold advection is now beginning to strengthen into our northwest as readings have dropped back down into the lower to mid 50s. The windy conditions combined with dry vegetation will lead to an elevated fire danger today, especially north of I-80 where GFDI values are more widespread in the very high range. Outdoor burning is discouraged! Regional radar imagery shows a narrow ribbon of precipitation from northern Colorado through southern and eastern Nebraska. This is in response to a shallow mid-level band of frontogenetical forcing within the right entrance region of a cyclonically curved 100+ kt 300 hPa jet on the southern periphery of the Upper Midwest shortwave. The sub-cloud layer to the west is very dry and thus a lot of this is evaporating before reaching the ground, but still some sprinkles are being observed in spots. This will shift across the area this morning with similar results in mostly sprinkles and low chances (<20%) for .01 inch of rain with any isolated showers. Otherwise, brisk/windy conditions are in order for today with aid of a tightening pressure gradient and cold advection while nearly unidirectional winds prove efficient for momentum transfer. Soundings show around 25-35+ kt atop the deeply mixed profiles supporting gusts potentially as high as around 40 mph. HREF and NBM probabilities for wind advisory criteria (30 mph sustained and 45+ mph gusts) are less than 20% mainly along and north of the Hwy 30 corridor, thus no headlines for wind but always have to keep an eye out for any overachieving in CAA regimes. It will also be notably cooler today for many compared to yesterday, but still around average with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Late this afternoon through this evening, CAMs are in agreement on shuttling convection (30-60% coverage) down across the area in response to digging energy on the backside of the exiting shortwave into the Great Lakes. What will need to be monitored closely is the potential for this convection (showers and a few weak storms) to bring down very strong winds of 40-50+ mph potentially near severe criteria in isolated instances, with soundings depicting around 50-100+ j/kg of MUCAPE at the top of the mixed layer. This activity will begin to fade in coverage and strength after sunset. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 310 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 We`ll start off the period on a continued cool and brisk/windy note Tuesday, with additional elevated fire danger. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, high pressure will build in leading to cold conditions with lows near or just below freezing for some, particularly north of I-80. Beyond, the forecast becomes active/unsettled over the latter half of the week, as a series of troughs in the western CONUS will aid in strong moisture advection in S/SW flow. The increase in moisture combined with a frontal zone and likely a couple of waves rippling along it (attendant to lifting energy in SW flow aloft) will lead to a period of wetter/stormier conditions Thursday and Friday. A few machine learning applications along with SPC guidance continues to highlight the potential for organized convection, but this is of lower confidence as there remains several uncertainties (timing of front, amount of instability, etc.) that will play into the severe weather potential, so stay tuned as we go through the week as these details become better defined. WPC QPF is generally around 0.25 to 0.5 inch, with NBM probabilities of >0.5 inch for 72 hr period ending 12z Saturday at 30-40%. Meanwhile the ECE probabilities for >0.5 inch are higher at 60-70% for much of the area, so there`s still plenty of potential for the QPF to change. Any precipitation would of course be welcomed with a good portion of the area still in abnormally dry (D0) or moderate drought (D1) conditions per the drought monitor update on April 10th. Temperatures will likely warm up late week with the increase in moisture. As we get to next weekend, we`re starting to see more of a signal for the front to slip far enough south to give us a cooler and drier start at least to the weekend. However, the lingering trough in the west is likely to eject out across the central CONUS late in the weekend and early next week, bringing a return of showers/storms. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 530 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Gusty NW winds will dominate the period with gusts 25-35+ kt. A transient band of mid-level frontogenetical forcing will sweep through the area this morning. Sub-cloud dry air will lead to much of the precip evaporating before reaching the ground, but still a few sprinkles are possible south of I-80 with a low chance (20%) for a brief shower near to south of BRL mid to late AM. Otherwise, predominantly VFR conditions are expected with a brief bout of MVFR ceilings possible near DBQ and CID later this morning. An upper level disturbance approaching from the northwest late in the day will bring the potential for scattered shra and isolated tsra to the terminals mainly 22z-04z. Greatest coverage (40-60%) will be found near CID and DBQ with more isolated coverage (10-30%) at MLI and BRL. Some of these showers could enhance wind gusts to 35-45 kt. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...McClure LONG TERM...McClure AVIATION...McClure