096 FXUS63 KDVN 122308 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 608 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and dry conditions tonight through Thursday. - Heat and humidity returns Friday through this weekend, with precipitation chances increasing Sunday into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 A mid-level trough and its associated surface cold front is currently tracking west to east across central Iowa. This will contribute to isolated showers and thunderstorms for much of the area through this afternoon, however coverage will be limited and the persistent cloud cover from this morning will somewhat limit instability. As such, severe weather is generally not expected, although with PWATs remaining near 1.5" and dewpoints in the low 70s that a few storms may produce locally heavy rainfall. Areas in NW Illinois may potentially see severe weather into this evening, with slightly better forcing/shear present, although overall confidence for this remains low. Skies will clear overnight as winds switch to NNW behind the aforementioned front. The residual moisture ahead of an approaching weak ridge combined with the light winds will bring fog/low cloud cover chances just before sunrise. Any fog should quickly burn off thereafter and a pleasant day will be in order for Wednesday, with mostly sunny skies, highs near 80, and lower humidity. Quiet conditions will persist into the evening. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Cooler and dry conditions will persist into Thursday despite an upper shortwave passing over the area. Its associated moisture should remain north of the CWA. A relatively strong upper ridge will build Friday into the weekend along with SSW surface flow and thus both temperatures and dew points will increase. This weekend will see highs in the low-to-mid 90s and heat indices of potentially 100- 105. The aforementioned ridge will stall over central Missouri Sunday into Monday and much of the storm chances look to remain on its periphery as shortwaves move around it, however widespread chance PoPs have been retained in the forecast given the uncertainty this far out. However, if the current pattern holds, chances would mostly be confined to the late Monday into Tuesday time frame as the ridge begins to break down. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 605 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through much, if not all, of the TAF period. Some uncertainty remains on the fog potential tonight, which we opted to leave out of the TAFs. Low-end chances (<20% chance) remain for fog tonight, with best chances east of the Mississippi River. Although, cannot be completely ruled out in river valleys. Will continue to monitor and update accordingly. Otherwise, light northwesterly winds will remain after 00z. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NWS LONG TERM...NWS AVIATION...Gunkel