105 FXUS63 KDVN 140817 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 317 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for locations along and south of Interstate 80 this morning - Periodic chances of showers and storms will be in the picture for late Tuesday through Saturday, with the highest chances coming Wednesday afternoon and evening (40-70%) - Flooding is occurring or expected to occur on some area rivers; please see the hydrology section below for more details && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 The work week starts off with dense fog being seen on local webcams and airport observations for locations along and south of Interstate 80 where a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 9 AM this morning. An area of high pressure remains overhead, with light winds and clear skies leading to ideal radiational cooling conditions, coupled with lingering wet ground from Thursday and Friday`s widespread severe storms. Eventually, the boundary layer should mix after sunrise this morning to help dissipate the dense fog. After AM fog dissipates, pleasant conditions are expected today, with mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures compared to yesterday, with highs in the middle to upper 80s. Surface high pressure will remain with us tonight under continued zonal flow aloft. Lows tonight should dip to the middle 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Periodic chances of showers and storms will be with us for late Tuesday through Saturday, particularly for mid-week (chances as high as 40-70% for Wednesday PM). Overall, ensemble guidance suggests zonal flow will be the norm, depicted well in the 14.00z LREF 500 mb height cluster analysis. A few mid-level impulses embedded within the zonal flow will support more active conditions starting late Tuesday. The bulk of our attention for this week remains on Wednesday, which looks to be our next chances for strong to severe storms. A few key features we will keep an eye on is the potential for an MCV to approach the area by Wednesday afternoon, which can be seen in the 14.00z RRFS. Additionally, a surface cold front is progged to quickly follow behind the MCV, which could also provide forcing for thunderstorms. Instability should be adequate for storms as MLCAPE values a progged around 1000-2000 J/kg, along with strengthening kinematics but generally meager deep-layer shear (around 20 to 30 knots). With this said, along with a continued signal in the various ML output for severe convection on Wednesday, SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for most of our CWA. How things evolve Wednesday will greatly depend on how convection develops for locations upstream over the Plains. Stay tuned to the forecast over the next few days! The active period appears likely to continue into the end of the week as strong upper-level ridging develops over the southeastern CONUS region, which could act to stall the aforementioned cold front/baroclinic zone over the Corn Belt region. Temperatures will remain slightly warmer for Tuesday and Wednesday before the cold front arrives, with highs in the middle to upper 80s each day, gradually cooling off after Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Light winds and mostly clear skies overnight under an area of high pressure should help support widespread fog development through sunrise Monday morning. Confidence in MVFR to IFR fog continues to increase, so decided to include them for all local TAFs. The question will be just how low will the visibilities fall overnight and how quickly will they fall. As of TAF issuance, there are already some locations seeing MVFR/IFR, so things may be deteriorating quicker than expected. LIFR conditions also appear possible, most likely for MLI and BRL, so have used TEMPO groups for now, but it`s possible these conditions could become prevailing. Fog/low stratus that develops should diminish after sunrise Monday, leading to VFR conditions through Monday evening. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 What is new with this issuance? The flood warning for the English River at Kalona was canceled with the river falling below flood stage. The flood watch for the Wapsipinicon River at Anamosa was canceled as the river is forecast to remain below flood stage. The flood watches for the Mississippi River at Gladstone and Burlington have been upgraded to warnings. The flood warnings for the Skunk River at Sigourney and the Iowa at Marengo remain in effect. There is lower confidence that the Skunk River at Sigourney will make it to flood stage with the river level remaining steady since yesterday morning. The flood watch remains in effect for the Wapsipinicon River at DeWitt. Dry conditions are forecast across the area through Tuesday morning. In bank rises will continue on area rivers before falling in the latter part of the week. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for IAZ063>065- 067-068-076>078-087>089-098-099. IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ015-016- 024>026-034-035. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ009-010. && $$ SHORT TERM...Schultz LONG TERM...Schultz AVIATION...Schultz HYDROLOGY...Cousins