677 FXUS63 KLOT 130530 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1230 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and possibly a couple of thunderstorms Friday into Saturday, especially south of I-80. - Very warm and humid with occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms early to mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Through Friday night: Weakening surface boundary is draped across northern IL, but outside of areas influenced by the marine layer, there is very little theta-e difference across the boundary. We are seeing a modest, albeit rather mushy, cumulus field developing near and south of this weak boundary beneath the cirrus canopy. Aided by little more than some weak low level convergence, the chances for any showers developing late this afternoon appears low. Opted to hang onto slight chance pops late this afternoon until around sunset on the off chance a couple of showers manage to develop. Upper low over the southern Plains is still progged to devolve into an open wave as it moves slowly northeast toward the mid Mississippi Valley. Scattered showers could encroach on our far southern late tonight with the shower chances spreading slowly northward Friday morning. Still appears the best chances of rain will be south of I-80, though some showers can`t be ruled out farther north. Any filtered sunshine through the cirrus shield Friday afternoon could theoretically allow for some weak boundary layer destabilization. Nearly moist adiabatic mid level lapse rates will further limit destabilization, but cannot rule out some isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon, with chances increasing the farther south. Some scattered showers could continue into Friday night as the slow moving system continues to meander ever so slowly east-northeastward across the region. - Izzi Saturday through Thursday: On Saturday, the open wave (remnant closed low) to our south and its associated weak surface low pressure reflection will track toward the central Ohio Valley. With this farther south low path and stabilizing influence of high pressure over the Great Lakes region, shower chances have trended markedly southward over the past few model cycles. There should still be some shower activity south of I-80, but probably more isolated to widely scattered in nature, with highest coverage (55-60% PoPs) generally south of US-24. Better mid-level moisture being focused down near the surface low (and 700-500 mb RH will be trending drier PM hours) and already sub-marginal (5.5C/km or less) mid-level lapse rates, there`s only a slight chance for a few isolated embedded thunderstorms where measurable precip may occur. High temperatures inland of Lake Michigan will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s inland, warmest west/northwest due to increasing sunshine and "coolest" southeast due to thicker clouds. Dew points generally in the 60s will translate to moderate humidity levels, common for mid June. Following a quiet and seasonable Saturday night into Sunday morning, a convectively modified impulse (possible MCV) may move toward the mid MS Valley by early evening. This could conceivably bring some threat for showers and isolated thunderstorms to far interior sections in the afternoon, particularly near/west of I-39 in north central/NW Illinois. With a sharp west-northwest to east-southeast instability gradient resulting in limited instability locally, suspect that the 12z ECMWF/EPS (ECMWF Ensemble) cycle was too bullish with the convectively driven QPF footprint. The 20-30% PoPs well away from the lake, highest northwest, in our official forecast, appear appropriate for now in light of the rest of the guidance being less bullish/farther west with their QPF output than the EC. Expecting high temperatures a couple degrees warmer on Sunday vs. Saturday, in the mid to upper 80s away from the lake, along with muggy conditions, especially south of I-80 (near 70F dew points). Temps may be able to climb a couple degrees lakeside as well, but still notably cooler. Looking ahead to next work week, we`ll enter into a classic summer-time pattern with very warm (aside from any lake cooling) and humid conditions and occasional shower and thunder chances. Modest forcing and weak flow aloft Monday-Tuesday should translate toward largely diurnally driven convection (peak coverage in the afternoon-evening) and the main thunderstorm threats being lightning, downpours, and localized gusty winds. Despite the day 6 lead time, there`s a decent signal in the ensemble guidance for a stronger synoptic system and associated cold frontal approach into the region in the Wednesday-Wednesday night timeframe. This may be a period to watch for organized convection and a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms in the region. If the Wednesday- Wednesday night timing comes to fruition, then Thursday would likely end up mainly dry and slightly cooler/less humid in the wake of the cold front passage. Castro && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Key Aviation Messages for the current TAF period: - 30 percent chance for showers during the afternoon and early evening - Potential for MVFR cigs after 00Z This evening`s shower chances have petered out. High clouds are still seen on satellite, but VFR conditions will prevail through Friday. Winds remain out of the northeast and are weakening, potentially becoming light enough to be variable at select sites around the region. No major changes to the shower chances in the forecast for Friday. As an upper level wave moves over the area, it brings the chance for showers. But weaker forcing lowers confidence in exact coverage which could range from isolated to widely scattered. Best chances look to be around KGYY and to the south during the afternoon, but could linger into the evening and spread northward depending on the movement of the wave. An eventual VCSH or TEMPO for -SHRA mention may be needed with later updates. Through much of the day, winds are expected to be at or less than 10 knots. Guidance is suggesting southeasterly winds in the morning ahead of the wave, then slowly becoming more easterly and eventually northeast Friday night. Guidance is in slight disagreement with cig trends overnight into Saturday morning. As that wave weakens in the evening, there was enough confidence to introduce MVFR cigs into the TAF (though lower confidence in timing of the cigs). Some of the guidance is being very aggressive in the potential for IFR cigs. But without a lot of agreement, it was only introduced as a FEW group at this time. DK && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago