385
FXUS65 KBOI 162039
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
239 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night... A low (10-20%)
chance of thunderstorms remain this afternoon/evening along the
ID/NV boarder. Current mesoscale analysis indicates instability
is already building in that area of interest, with CAPE values
of 500 j/kg in the Southwest Highlands. Northwesterly winds will
increase Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon following
the cold frontal passage. Winds aloft initially line up well
with the Snake Plain which should aid in the mixing down of
higher momentum. Sustained winds Thursday with reach 25-30 MPH
and gusting as high as 45 MPH. A wind advisory as been issued,
valid from 9a MDT (8a PDT) through 6p MDT (5p PDT). High-res
guidance indicates a surface low setting up to our east early
Thursday morning. Precipitation chances remain elevated (40-60%)
east of a line from Lowman to Grand View. With snow levels
dropping to 2500-3000ft MSL, snow and a snow/rain mix is
possible in the western Magic Valley early Thursday. Accumulations
will be slim to none outside of the West Central Mountains and
into the Elk Mountain region. We begin to dry out area wide
overnight Friday, as the upper trough and surface low exit our
region and make way for an incoming ridge.

High temperatures through Friday stay close (although leaning
to below) normal, with highs in the 50s to low 60s. A similar
trend is seen in the overnight low temperatures, with lows
ranging from high 20s to high 30s across our area.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Brief high pressure will
develop Saturday morning before the next shortwave trough clips the
northern portions of the forecast area Saturday afternoon/eve.
Moisture will be limited, maintaining only a slight chance of
showers (15%) for west-central ID mountains with snow levels
around 6000-7000 feet MSL. A colder and deeper trough is
forecast to arrive Sunday and Monday, bumping precip chances
up to 20-30% for west-central Idaho both days. Temperatures
will lower a few degrees Sun/Mon under the influence of the
trough, with snow levels dipping to 4500-5500 feet MSL. Enhanced
northwest flow aloft will create breezy winds on Monday on the
backside of this system. A general troughing pattern is expected
to linger Tuesday and Wednesday, though incoming drier air
should limit shower coverage. Temperatures are expected to warm
a few degrees Tue/Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...Generally VFR. Localized MVFR/IFR in snow showers for
west-central ID. Rain showers and slight chance (15%) thunderstorms
expected along NV/ID border, with 25-35 kt outflow winds. Surface
winds: W to N 10-20 kt with afternoon gusts 20-30 kt. Increasing to
15-25 kt with 25-40 kt gusts for east-central OR and W Snake Plain
tonight/Thursday. Winds aloft at 10kft: NW to N 20-40 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: W-NW 10-15 kt with 20-25 kt gusts. Period
of NW-N 20-25 kt with gusts around 30-35 kt between 17/03Z-05Z with
cold front.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM MDT Thursday
     IDZ012-014-015-029.
OR...Wind Advisory from 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ to 6 PM MDT /5 PM PDT/
     Thursday ORZ062-064.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM....SH
AVIATION.....SH