390 FXUS65 KPIH 161728 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1128 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Last warm day today. - 20 to 30 degree drop in temperatures on Thursday with light snow possible even down to valley floors. - Gusty north winds Thursday afternoon across upper Snake Plain. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1250 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Low pressure system is working its way here from the north. We will still see warm conditions across the region today with highs in the Snake Plain and Magic Valley likely in the low 70s once again. However, moisture associated with this system will interact with some of our higher terrain this afternoon. This should produce scattered showers across the mountains and highlands with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms as well. Winds will begin to pick up in the afternoon as well. The best winds are out across the Arco Desert where peak gusts will likely be 40 to 45 mph which is very close to wind advisory levels. At this point though seems just a bit too marginal for an advisory. On Thursday, the low will move overhead bringing noticeably colder temperatures and better chances for precipitation across the region. Precipitation amounts with this system as a whole look fairly light, but there could be some areas where the snow could be somewhat impactful. Most likely area is around Island Park where 2 to 4 inches of snow is likely Thursday into Friday. Many of the models are also indicating a persistent area of snow developing in the lower Snake Plain into the Magic Valley Thursday afternoon and evening. Although thinking ground temps are probably too warm to support much if any accumulation there. Winds will switch around to the north Thursday and still remain fairly brisk, especially out towards Dubois and Mud Lake. The need for a wind advisory for Thursday afternoon looks better as peak gusts are in the 45 to 50 mph range across Clark County into the Arco Desert and working down the Snake Plain to near Rexburg and Idaho Falls. As we head into Thursday Night the low will begin shifting south and some models are hinting at a band of heavier snow developing which combined with upslope flow into the southern highlands, could potentially be impactful for areas such as Pocatello. However, confidence is really low at this point if this band develops and where it would set up. In terms of higher confidence amounts, those numbers are best across the eastern highlands with but are most likely in the 1 to 3 inch range. So will hold off on any winter headlines for now. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1250 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Showers will remain Friday south of the Snake Plain before diminishing later in the day. We will be dry Friday night and most of Saturday as we remain in between storms. The pattern remains active overall though in the weekend and next week. We will see showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms Sunday with a weakening wave crossing the state. Beyond that, we will see multiple waves of moisture crossing through central and eastern Idaho. Nothing looks terribly impressive at the moment in terms of a big dump of rain and snow on any given day. Temperatures remain on the cool side Friday with highs barely reaching 50/low 50s at lower elevations. Beyond that, highs will return to 50s or 60s daily. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1103 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Will see winds increase this afternoon to 10 to 15 knots at BYI, PIH and IDA with gusts 20 to 25 knots at PIH and IDA with southwest winds after 20Z at SUN. Cold front moves through Thursday and expect winds to continue with the 10 to 15 knots and gusts 20 to 30 knots late tonight early Thursday with frontal passage. AT this point expect VFR conditions continue through Thursday morning with only VCSH for the most part at all sites overnight into THursday with only predominate -SN at DIJ Thursday morning as much colder temperatures move in. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday for IDZ052-067- 068. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM...Keyes AVIATION...GK