528
FXUS66 KOTX 082200
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
300 PM PDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures cool Wednesday as a weather system moves through
bringing some breezy to locally gusty winds to the region.
Precipitation chances will be confined to the Cascade crest and
higher peaks of the Selkirk mountains along the Canadian border.
Temperatures rebound back into the low 70s again for the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday night: A broad upper-level trough is
working its way inland but is doing in a subtle manner.
Consequently, the air mass will cool and temperatures will be 5-8
degrees cooler on Wednesday but still remain a handful of degrees
for what is considered average for this time of year. There will
be a noticeable increase in mid and high level cloud cover but any
potential for rain will be restricted to the Cascade Crest and
possibly a higher peak in the Selkirks along the Canadian border.
Folks across the Inland NW will likely notice the increase
movement of air in the horizontal spectrum, aka wind. We have
experienced several days of light, variable winds, this will
change. The push of breezy winds will arrive in the Cascade gaps
this evening with gusts up 20 mph. On Wednesday, the breezy
conditions will expand region-wide but with minimal impacts.
Sustained speeds of 10-18 mph will be accompanied by gusts of
20-25 mph in our wind prone areas stretching from the Cascades to
the Idaho Panhandle. The latest HREF does introduce 40-60%, chance
for isolated gusts of 30 mph around Entiat, Coulee City, Ephrata,
Quincy, and Wenatchee. In the mountains, the increased winds will
be experienced along the ridgetops and southwest exposed aspects
with generally light speeds on the sheltered northerly aspects.

The one other difference noted with the latest HREF is a bit more
dry air in place Wednesday afternoon in Central WA. This has
resulted in increased joint probabilities of RH < 20% and WS > 15
mph around Coulee Dam, Mansfield, Ephrata, and Wenatchee varying
from 10-40%. Will highlight this in the fire weather forecast but
do not anticipate any fire weather highlights.

There will be a good deal of dry air arriving Wednesday evening.
PWATS will plummet from 0.7 to 0.2. Decreasing winds, clear
skies, and dry air will allow for very chilly temperatures.
Forecast was lowered further from the NBM and a hard freeze is
expected in the mountain valleys of NE WA Thursday morning. The
system will slowly depart on Thursday with shortwave ridging
returning to Central WA. Thursday will be the coolest day of the
week with highs only warming into the 60s but should feel warmer
with an abundance of sunshine and light winds. /sb

Friday through Monday: Another low will move onshore over the
weekend and will then track eastward along the Oregon/California
border. Because the track of the low will be to our south, we won`t
see much in the way of precipitation or breezy winds. Expect mild
weather here in the Inland Northwest with mainly clear skies and
afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. The Cascade crest may
see light intermittent showers, but the rest of the region should
stay dry. Increasingly long nights combined with minimal cloud cover
will allow most locations to cool into the 30s and 40s each night.
Early morning frost will be likely in some of our cooler northern
valleys where temperatures will drop near to below freezing. Lows in
the 20s won`t be out of the question for our coldest locations
including Chewelah and Republic. Ensembles are suggesting chances
for showers will increase into the middle of next week, but it`s
hard to say for sure this far out. More on that as it gets closer.
/Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Mid and high clouds will pass through the region with
the passage of a slow cold front. Main impacts to aviation will be
lowering cigs over the Cascades and increase in winds. Winds will
be breezy through the Cascade gaps and at KEAT this evening then
across the forecast area on Wednesday. Gusts of 20-25 mph will
impact most terminals across the Columbia Basin from Wenatchee to
Ritzville to Pullman to Spokane, and into the lower Okanogan
Valley.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence is
high for VFR conditions across the TAF sites. On Wednesday, there
is a 60-70% chance for gusts 25 mph or stronger in central WA
around Ephrata, Entiat, and Wenatchee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  68  30  65  36  67 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  45  68  32  64  36  65 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Pullman        45  67  32  63  39  66 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Lewiston       52  75  40  68  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       36  68  23  64  27  64 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  65  27  62  34  63 /   0  10  20  10   0  10
Kellogg        50  66  35  63  42  67 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Moses Lake     44  72  34  66  36  67 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      52  69  40  65  43  67 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           46  73  34  67  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$