301
FXUS66 KOTX 162250
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
250 PM PST Tue Dec 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High confidence for high winds Tuesday night into Wednesday
  morning with a 40% to 80% chance of wind gusts greater than 60
  mph across much of the region. Tree and powerline damage and
  widespread power outages possible.

- Rain and high mountain snow through early Wednesday to bring
  additional river rises and mud and rock slide concerns to
  Cascades and Idaho Panhandle.

- High confidence for heavy mountain snow impacting the Cascades
  starting overnight Tuesday. There is a 90% chance of 2 feet
  or more of snow at Stevens Pass through Friday afternoon.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
An extremely active pattern will continue to impact the Inland
Northwest through Thursday. Rain and high mountain snow through
Tuesday night, will bring additional river rises with mud and
rock slide concerns in steep terrain of the Cascades and Idaho
Panhandle. Strong, potentially damaging winds, then develop
Tuesday night into Wednesday, as well as rain transitioning to
heavy snow at some pass levels. Temperatures cool toward the
end of the week but still remain above normal. Additional
weather systems are forecast to bring more snow to the mountains
and a wintry mix to rain to the valleys heading through the
rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
RENEWED FLOODING CONCERNS FOR CASCADES AND NORTH ID PANHANDLE
TUESDAY, HIGH WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AND HEAVY
MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...

Tonight through Wednesday: Expanding precipitation, lowering
snow levels and damaging winds will be the weather picture of
the period. A cold front rapidly pushes across the area late
tonight into Wednesday morning. This feature is currently off
the coast and it projected to push onto the coast before
midnight and rapidly move into eastern WA overnight into early
Wednesday. Precipitable water values rise to around 0.50 to 0.80
inches (180-250% of normal), peaking with thaT front. Tuesday
overnight into early Wednesday morning will have the highest
precipitation potential outside the mountains. The mountains
will see a more prolonged high precipitation potential, relative
to the lowlands. This moisture tap is not at deep or at
prolonged as recent ones. The front will lower snow levels
bringing rain changing to snow in the mountains. So the higher
impacts from snow will be developing overnight into Wednesday,
especially near the Cascades. The Idaho Panhandle and northern
mountain passes could also see some light snow accumulation
impacts Tuesday overnight into Wednesday. The other feature of
the cold front will be the potential for embedded t-storms.
Models are depicting a could hundred joules of CAPE along the
front which will contribute to that t-storm potential. Those
thunderstorms will have the potential to enhance the already
strong winds expected to impact the area.

 * Winds: Winds are already breezy this afternoon and will
   remain breezy this evening, but the biggest increase is
   expected overnight into Wednesday morning. The strongest wind
   gust potential of 50-60 mph are in the forecast or even near
   70 mph are expected with that cold front and just behind.
   That potential for the near 70 mph winds will be especially
   possible with any convective enhancement, i.e. t-storms with
   the front. So the period between about 11 to 17 UTC/3 AM to 9
   AM Wednesday is the window for the highest winds, then
   speeds slowly decline. This continues to look like a
   significant event, with damaging winds and the potential for
   power outages and difficulties for high profile vehicles.
   High wind warnings remain in place from 10 PM tonight through
   4 PM Wednesday.

 * Precipitation Amounts: Precipitation becomes widespread
   across the region tonight into Wednesday. Forecast totals by
   Wednesday night range from 3 to 5 inches along the Cascade
   Crest, 1 to 3 inches along the mid slopes, and 0.10 to 0.40
   inches for valley floors. The deeper Columbia Basin will see
   the lightest amounts with less 0.10 inches forecast. The ID
   Panhandle will generally range from 0.40 inches to 1 inch
   with higher amounts for the mountains.

 * Snow: Snow levels will rise between 4500 and 6500 feet this
   afternoon, locally lower near the Upper Methow Valley, are
   forecast to rapidly fall to between 1000 and 2000 feet by
   Wednesday morning following the passage of a cold front. This
   rapid drop in snow levels will coincide with precip chances
   ending due to dry air moving in behind the front, so lowland
   snow accumulations are not anticipated. For the Cascades,
   snow will ramp up Tuesday night into Wednesday with 10-20
   inches forecast by Wednesday night near the Cascade crest.
   This is expected to come with the strong winds. Thus, the
   winter storm warning was upgraded to a blizzard warning as
   the winds may result in blowing snow, reducing visibility.
   Other mountain passes including Sherman and Lookout are
   forecast to receive 1 to 3 inches of snow.

Thursday to Tuesday: Another system will spread across the area
Thursday into Friday, with another around of significant
precipitation amounts and breezy/gusty winds. This go-around
snow levels will start lower at around 2-3kft before rising to
around 3-6kft in the afternoon. This will likely bring some
moderate to heavy snow in the mountains again, with the Cascades
potentially seeing feet of snow and the other passes mountain,
such as Sherman and Lookout, seeing moderate snow. So stay tuned
because impacts are possible if heading into the mountain
passes, as highlights will be possible. Lowlands may see a
rain/snow mix to start, then rain. From Saturday to Tuesday a
zonal flow pattern will start to set up over the region.
Precipitation chances will continue, with the higher potential
around the mountains but still moderate outside. The Inland
Northwest will have seasonal temperatures with highs in the 30s
and low 40s. Overnight lows will be in the 20s and low 30s
/Solveig

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs:

.STRONG COLD FRONT TO BRING CONVECTION AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE
INLAND NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

Major to extreme impacts from winds are expected late tonight
with a vigorous cold front passage between 09-14Z. The front
will be preceded by rain and strong dynamics along the front
will bring a threat of convection that will lead to the
potential for heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms. Higher
threat for convective enhancement with precipitation will be
east of a line from KMWH to KOMK. Cold front passage will bring
the potential for wind gusts of 50+ kts out of west to southwest
and convective cells will only enhance this potential for 60-70
kt wind gusts.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate to
high confidence for a convective line with cold front late
Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. There is a 20% for
thunderstorms to impact KLWS/KPUW/KGEG/KSFF-KCOE between 10-14Z
Wednesday.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        38  47  33  44  33  41 / 100  40  10 100  70  40
Coeur d`Alene  38  47  32  44  34  40 / 100  70  20 100  90  50
Pullman        36  47  32  46  36  41 / 100  70  10 100  90  80
Lewiston       44  53  38  48  41  46 / 100  60   0  90  90  70
Colville       35  47  28  40  25  39 / 100  50  20 100  70  30
Sandpoint      37  45  31  40  31  38 / 100  90  30 100  90  60
Kellogg        35  46  33  43  34  38 / 100  90  40 100  90  80
Moses Lake     40  48  34  43  32  44 /  90  10  10  90  50  20
Wenatchee      37  44  34  40  30  40 / 100  40  30 100  70  30
Omak           36  45  31  39  26  37 /  90  20  10 100  60  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST
     Wednesday for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-
     Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-
     Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County.
     Flood Watch until 2 AM PST Wednesday for Central Chelan County-
     Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan
     County.
     Blizzard Warning from 2 AM to noon PST Wednesday for Western
     Chelan County.
ID...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Central Panhandle
     Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Northern
     Panhandle.
     High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST
     Wednesday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene
     Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-
     Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle.

&&

$$