801
FXUS65 KPIH 110658
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1258 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk for severe storms today.

- Flash flood watch over Wapiti burn scar in Custer County this
  afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1256 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Most likely looking at a very active day across east Idaho today. We
will start the day with some overnight showers drifting through the
central mountains and some cloud cover across southern Idaho. Models
remain insistent that enough instability and upper level dynamics
are in place for clusters of thunderstorms to develop over central
Idaho around midday. These storms are expected to rapidly intensify
and move east, possibly congealing into a broken line across east
Idaho before moving into Wyoming. But that may not be all of the
storms as the 3km NAM and HRRR both show another round of storms
emerging from the Lemhi area and into the upper Snake Plain late
afternoon and early evening. Also, the NAM is showing storms
potentially moving into the Bear Lake region around that time as
well. There still remains a threat for severe thunderstorms across
the region with large hail and damaging winds as the main threat.
The most likely time for severe weather is from 12pm to 8pm.
Ensembles are indicating that up to 0.50 inches of rain is possible
in these storms. A flash flood watch is in effect for the Wapiti
Burn Scar near Stanley. If one of these heavier storms would move
through that area, then there is a high chance of debris flows
there. Most of the convection should diminish by late evening.

On Thursday, looking at another round of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms as another shortwave passes through.
However, the strength of this system combined with instability over
the area and upper level dynamics aren`t nearly as supportive of
strong storms as we will see today.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Southwest flow is expected across the region through the weekend.
This will allow well above average temperatures to continue. Models
show a weak cold front arriving Monday which may allow temperatures
to return more normal for midweek. The extended forecast looks dry
as systems in the extended look too weak or not enough moisture
around to work with.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 830 PM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

We get a bit of a reprieve from thunderstorms overnight, though a
few of the HI-RES models want to bring some overnight showers near
SUN from 07-12Z, so do have some -SHRA in the forecast starting
around 08Z. The main show will begin closer to 16Z Wednesday as
stronger storms get going across much of Eastern Idaho. Have
included PROB30 at all sites for the late morning through afternoon.
Looking at the HREF ensemble max wind gusts for Wednesday, there is
the potential for the strongest storms to produce gusts of 60-70 mph
and hail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1256 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

A strong system/trough will move through the area
today bringing widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into the evening. Moderate to strong outflows and moderate
to large hail are expected with thunderstorms. Also, expect moderate
to heavy brief rainfall with thunderstorms. Isolated flooding is
possible, especially for the Wapiti burn scar north of Stanley.
Temperatures will drop 4 to 8 degrees (70s to 80s) today and
Thursday compared to yesterday but temperatures will still be above
normal. Isolated thunderstorms are expected Thursday as well.  The
area begins to dry out again towards the end of the week and into
the weekend with temperatures rising back to the 80s and 90s by the
weekend.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
IDZ072.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...TW