268
FXUS66 KOTX 221029
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
329 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures and dry weather continues. Wednesday will be
  our warmest day over the next week with highs in the upper
  80s to mid 90s.

- Locally breezy winds will impact portions of Central WA Monday
  morning.

- Weather changes arrive late next week with cooler
  temperatures, gusty winds, and a chance of showers.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and dry pattern will last into mid-week as a ridge of
high pressure shifts inland over the region. The pattern shifts
toward the end of the week and into next weekend as a weather
system delivers cooler temperatures and a chance of showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday: The forecast remains on track for a
high pressure ridge to shift over the region early this week,
keeping conditions warm and dry. Most of the region will climb
into the Moderate HeatRisk category by Wednesday as temperatures
rise into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Moderate HeatRisk affects
those who are sensitive to heat, especially those without
adequate cooling or hydration.

As surface temperatures warm up and upper levels cool ahead of
an incoming trough, elevated instability may bring isolated
mountain showers and thunderestorms and increased fire weather
concerns. Latest runs of the NBM show a 10-15 percent chance of
thunderstorms across the Cascades, Northern Mountains, and ID
Panhandle Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday: Ensembles are still in strong
agreement on a significant pattern change taking place over the
second half of the week and into the weekend with an upper level
trough dropping into the region. Consensus is growing among
ensemble members on the timing of the trough with most model
clusters showing the trough moving over the region on Friday.
Differences remain on the strength of the trough and how far
south it will track, but there is high confidence on a shift to
a troughing pattern of some sort on Friday. Thursday will
likely stay warm ahead of the trough with high temperatures only
3-5 degrees cooler than Wednesday. Heading into Friday, spread
in the temperature forecast has decreased substantially since
yesterday, indicating higher confidence in the timing of the
trough`s arrival as well as the arrival of cooler temperatures.
Friday and Saturday will be nearly 20 degrees cooler than those
on Thursday with highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Gusty winds are inevitable with such a dramatic cooldown, so
expect a windy day or two toward the end of the week. In
addition to cooler temperatures and gusty winds, this system
will bring widespread chances for showers. Stay tuned for more
info in the coming days! /Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs: Conditions at regional air fields will continue at
VFR levels for the next 24 hours. A push of breezy north winds
Monday morning will impact the Okanogan Valley and Central WA
including KOMK and KMWH with gusts to 15-25 knots between
16-22Z. Winds will subside Monday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence
remains high for VFR conditions at all terminals through the
forecast period.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        84  52  85  54  89  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  82  53  85  56  88  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        82  50  84  51  87  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       89  56  90  58  94  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       84  49  87  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      80  54  83  58  86  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        80  51  83  54  87  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     89  56  91  57  94  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      88  64  89  64  92  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           87  58  90  59  92  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$