870 FXUS65 KPIH 120835 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 235 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon. - Isolated showers and storms in the central mountains and Montana Divide region on Friday. - Above normal temperatures through the duration of the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 235 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Upper level trough situated along the West coast will keep moisture streaming into Southeast Idaho in southwest flow aloft for Thursday and Friday, supporting another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today. HREF shows convective initiation around 2 PM across central Idaho, with storms and showers lifting northeastward throughout the afternoon and early evening. Models indicate a widespread 15% to 30% thunder risk today with the entirety of Southeast Idaho in the Storm Prediction Center`s general thunder risk. Storms will be capable of producing gusty outflow winds 40 to 50 mph and small hail. Precipitation amounts look to be very modest, with only a few hundredths expected out of most of these showers, although a stronger storm or training storms could result in a tenth or more in isolated areas. Looking ahead to Friday, the bulk of activity will be to our north, with the northern half of the CWA in a general thunder risk outlook on Friday. Temperatures will continue to run around 10 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 235 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Strengthening high pressure over the Southwest will mean warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions across Southeast Idaho over the weekend. Daytime highs will reach up to 15 degrees above climatological norms, with 80s and potentially even low 90s across the valleys with 60s and 70s in the mountains. 500mb ensemble clusters suggest the breakdown of the ridge Monday into Tuesday as a trough swings through, although long-range models show the bulk of moisture confined to the northeastern mountains and further north. This system will bring breezy winds and cool temperatures by several degrees early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1011 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Most of the clouds and storms have cleared out this evening, although we could still see something around until just after midnight around SUN. We will see another round of showers and storms on Thursday, although not as widespread and organized vs Wednesday. Expect VFR conditions, although like today conditions could quickly worsen with heavy rain, gusty winds, or even some small hail. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Look for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening with moisture moving into the area in southwest flow aloft. Gusty outflow winds of around 30 to 40 mph are likely with any thunderstorms. Small hail is also likely with thunderstorms. High temperatures today will be in the 70s and 80s across the area. The area begins to dry out again by Friday and into the weekend with temperatures rising back to the 80s and 90s by the weekend. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cropp LONG TERM...Cropp AVIATION...Keyes FIRE WEATHER...TW