132
FXUS65 KPIH 021122
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
522 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry today and much cooler with highs in the 60s and 70s. Winds
  should gradually diminish in the afternoon.

- Showers in the eastern mountains and central mountains on
  Tuesday but little precipitation expected. Remaining cool.

- Afternoon highs back above normal by Wednesday with 80s in
  lower elevations by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Expect dry conditions today for the most part as westerly flow
aloft sets in behind cold frontal passage. It will be
significantly cooler however with highs back down to the 60s
mountains and 70s valleys. Winds will diminish this afternoon.
Lows tonight will be in the 20s and 30s mountains and 40s
valleys. Tuesday will be the coldest day of the forecast period
with highs in the 50s and 60s mountains and upper 60s to lower
70s valleys. There will be a chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the eastern mountains and Upper Snake Plain as
a weak upper level wave drops south from Canada.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025

The long-term period continues to look fairly low-impact despite
broad/longwave troughing remaining in place from the Rockies east
into the Plains and multiple shortwave troughs/disturbances riding
through the region every day or two. None seem to bring more than
light chances of showers/thunderstorms generally in the highlands
along the Wyoming border and Island Park/Montana border region, with
the rest of the forecast area remaining predominantly dry. Cluster
differences in 500mb height analysis are pretty modest and low-
impact as well...likely with some of the details/smaller
disturbances being washed out in that analysis. We continue to
expect a warming trend throughout the period, and breezy conditions
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons as the pressure gradient
tightens in response to a more organized low pressure system to our
northeast dropping across Canada. Held with NBM guidance for the
forecast, and removed some QPF on a few days where it didn`t line up
with significant PoPs or confidence in precip coverage was low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected today and tonight as our latest low
pressure system pulls away to the east. Ongoing breezy winds will
gradually lessen with time today, dropping off more definitively
around sunset this evening. Varying degrees of mid to high level
clouds will drift across the region at times as well. Expect a shift
to a SW runway crosswind again this afternoon at KSUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Will be much cooler today after a cold frontal passage on Sun
day. Highs about 10 degrees colder than they were on Sunday.
Strongest winds will be in zones 425 and 427 with 10 to 20 mph
sustained winds expected. Tuesday will be even cooler with highs
in the 50s and 60s high elevations and 60s to lower 70s low
elevations. Any shower and thunderstorm activity Tuesday and
Tuesday night will be in zones 476, 411, and 413. Not expecting
high QPF totals through the week. Mainly dry conditions will
persist through the week.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GK
LONG TERM...KSmith
AVIATION...01
FIRE WEATHER...GK