132 FXUS65 KPIH 021122 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 522 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry today and much cooler with highs in the 60s and 70s. Winds should gradually diminish in the afternoon. - Showers in the eastern mountains and central mountains on Tuesday but little precipitation expected. Remaining cool. - Afternoon highs back above normal by Wednesday with 80s in lower elevations by the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 252 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Expect dry conditions today for the most part as westerly flow aloft sets in behind cold frontal passage. It will be significantly cooler however with highs back down to the 60s mountains and 70s valleys. Winds will diminish this afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the 20s and 30s mountains and 40s valleys. Tuesday will be the coldest day of the forecast period with highs in the 50s and 60s mountains and upper 60s to lower 70s valleys. There will be a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms in the eastern mountains and Upper Snake Plain as a weak upper level wave drops south from Canada. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 252 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 The long-term period continues to look fairly low-impact despite broad/longwave troughing remaining in place from the Rockies east into the Plains and multiple shortwave troughs/disturbances riding through the region every day or two. None seem to bring more than light chances of showers/thunderstorms generally in the highlands along the Wyoming border and Island Park/Montana border region, with the rest of the forecast area remaining predominantly dry. Cluster differences in 500mb height analysis are pretty modest and low- impact as well...likely with some of the details/smaller disturbances being washed out in that analysis. We continue to expect a warming trend throughout the period, and breezy conditions Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons as the pressure gradient tightens in response to a more organized low pressure system to our northeast dropping across Canada. Held with NBM guidance for the forecast, and removed some QPF on a few days where it didn`t line up with significant PoPs or confidence in precip coverage was low. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 522 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 VFR conditions are expected today and tonight as our latest low pressure system pulls away to the east. Ongoing breezy winds will gradually lessen with time today, dropping off more definitively around sunset this evening. Varying degrees of mid to high level clouds will drift across the region at times as well. Expect a shift to a SW runway crosswind again this afternoon at KSUN. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 252 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Will be much cooler today after a cold frontal passage on Sun day. Highs about 10 degrees colder than they were on Sunday. Strongest winds will be in zones 425 and 427 with 10 to 20 mph sustained winds expected. Tuesday will be even cooler with highs in the 50s and 60s high elevations and 60s to lower 70s low elevations. Any shower and thunderstorm activity Tuesday and Tuesday night will be in zones 476, 411, and 413. Not expecting high QPF totals through the week. Mainly dry conditions will persist through the week. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GK LONG TERM...KSmith AVIATION...01 FIRE WEATHER...GK