236 FXUS65 KBOI 071559 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 959 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025 .DISCUSSION...The center of an upper level trough will move east across Washington into the Idaho Panhandle today. As a result, a few showers have developed this morning near Baker City. Showers and thunderstorms will increase near the low center this afternoon and early evening which will impact our northern areas, mainly north of a Baker City to Cascade to Stanley line. Stronger storms may bring brief heavy rain, small hail, and gusts to 35 mph. Elsewhere, it will be dry, but the trough will bring a 5 to 10 degree temperature drop from yesterday and breezy winds. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph will be common, with a few gusts to 35 mph. This is handled by the current forecast and no updates are anticipated this morning. && .AVIATION...VFR. Scattered showers, isolated afternoon thunderstorms KBKE-KMYL. Some storms w/ gusts to 35 kt, small hail, brief heavy rain. Surface winds: SW to NW up to 10 kt, then W to NW 10-15 kt with 20-30 kt gusts this afternoon/eve. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W 15-25 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: W to NW 5-10 kt this morning, increasing to 10-15 kt with 20-25 kt gusts this afternoon/eve. Weekend Outlook...VFR. Surface winds: generally W-N 5-15 kt, afternoon gusts to 15-25 kt. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night...A mostly dry cold front will move through the area from late this afternoon through the overnight hours. The only chance for showers and thunderstorms will be confined to the northern quarter of the CWA...generally from Baker County east through Adams and Washington counties and finally through Valley County. Any showers or storms that do form will move east into Valley County by 6 PM MDT, then end completely by 9 PM MDT. It will be breezy along and behind the front for several hours, with gusts 20-30 mph lasting well into the evening and even after midnight from around Mountain Home south and east into the western Magic Valley. Friday through Saturday night will be dry, and after a relatively cool Friday (highs 10-15 degrees below normal), temps will start to warm back up on Saturday. LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Dry, northwest flow aloft is anticipated Sunday and Monday while high pressure attempts to build from the west and south. This will result in a warming trend for E Oregon and SW Idaho, with temperatures rising a few degrees for Sunday and near-normal by Monday. Further warming, along with breezy winds, will develop Tuesday ahead of a Canadian trough expected by early Wednesday. The cooler air mass of the trough should bring temps back down by a few degrees for Wednesday and Thursday. Some ensemble members pull in weak, mid-level Pacific moisture along the NV border with the trough on Wednesday, but precipitation chances remain low at this time. Uncertainty arises after Wednesday in the models, but there are hints of a secondary trough to arrive Thursday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...ST AVIATION.....BW SHORT TERM...SP LONG TERM....SH