547 FXUS65 KBOI 271201 CCA AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Boise ID 601 AM MDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue today as a cold front moves through the area. NW winds will become stronger in eastern OR, with gusts 30-40 mph likely this afternoon. Mesoscale models are consistent in showing a NW-SW band of showers with embedded thunderstorms forming late this morning and lasting through the afternoon. The band will most likely extend from the West Central Mountains through the Boise metro area and into far SE OR. Rainfall amounts under this band in the mountains are forecast to range from a quarter to a half inch, with localized amounts up to an inch. In lower elevations, expected one to three tenths of an inch. The band will move east into the western Magic Valley this evening as it weakens, dissipating after midnight. Monday should be mild with a chance of showers remaining only in our far eastern area (mainly the eastern Boise Mountains and the western Magic Valley, along with SE Owyhee County. Monday night should be mostly clear and dry as ridging builds in aloft, but this will quickly be replaced by a trough moving in from the NW Tuesday. This trough will bring a chance (15-35% in the south, 40-80% in the north) of showers back to the region. These showers will move off to the east Tuesday night as another ridge, this one significantly stronger, builds in. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Wed and Thu will be dry with a warming trend as the influence of the strong upper ridge is felt. Next, a strong trough is expected to approach the coast Friday, bringing warm and moist SW winds aloft and re- introducing a chance of showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms to the area. This will continue Saturday, and a cold front should move through as well. After high temperatures reach around 15 degrees above normal Friday, highs on Saturday will fall to around 5 degrees below normal. That 20-degree change is going to noticeable! The long range models are in well-above-average agreement that the trough will "pinch off" and form a closed low to our south or southwest Saturday into Saturday night, with the trough axis passing overhead sometime between late Saturday and early Sunday. This should keep unsettled (showery) weather going into Sunday, and keep temps below normal. && .AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms areawide today, producing local IFR conditions and obscuring mtns. Surface winds: N-NW 10-20 kt. SE OR will gust up to 35 kt this afternoon and evening. Winds aloft at 10kft: NE to E 5-15 kt this morning, becoming mostly N-NW 20-30 kt this afternoon. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds mostly light southerly early, becoming SE-S 10-15 kt late this morning. Showers this afternoon, potentially long-lasting, with a 20% of thunderstorms. Brief IFR conditions in heavy rain and gusty winds would accompany thunderstorms. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...SP LONG TERM....SP AVIATION.....SP