293
FXUS66 KOTX 240534
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
934 PM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The weekend into early next week will feature seasonal
temperatures and chances for valley rain and brief snow and
periods of mountain snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Scattered showers associated with a mid level
disturbance over the Upper Columbia Basin will continue to move
east overnight. This is a slow moving feature, and POP`s were
adjusted upward into the overnight hours for the Spokane/Coeur
d`Alene area up into Deer Park and Athol as this system slowly
migrates northeast over these areas. With dew points in the mid to
upper 30s and only slight cooling overnight, snow levels were
increased a bit for these areas with mainly rain or a rain/snow
mix as showers move overhead. Snow will be confined to elevations
above 2500-3000 feet, except above 2000 feet near the Canadian
border. Low temperatures were increased slightly as well. The
next weather system will spread precipitation into Central WA
Sunday morning. With dewpoints in the upper 30s at Ephrata and
Omak, precipitation will be mainly rain in the valleys, except the
Cascade East Slopes where wet bulb temperatures near freezing
down to the valley floors is expected to bring mainly snow. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A moist boundary layer and light southwest winds
overnight will bank stratus up into NE Washington into the ID
Panhandle as well as the Palouse with IFR/MVFR conditions. Fog is
also out there impacting some airports such as Methow Valley, and
Colville. A band of showers nearing KGEG as of 05z will move east
overnight towards KDEW/KSFF/KCOE.  On Sunday increasing south-
southeast boundary layer winds will bank up the stratus over the
northern valleys and areas near the Cascades while the Palouse
sees improving conditions. These winds will be in response to an
incoming weather system that will spread rain and snow across
Central and NE Washington into the N Idaho Panhandle through the
day. There is some disagreement in the models how far south this
precipitation will make it with some solutions bringing rain down
to Moses Lake, and Spokane/Coeur d`Alene area. But with the NBM
and HREF favoring rain staying north of these areas the forecast
leans towards dry weather for these sites.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Showers around KGEG/KSFF/KCOE overnight may bring fluctuating
conditions. Breaks in the clouds around KMWH may allow ground fog
to form but confidence is low on if this will impact the airport.
For KEAT/KMWH, if precipitation changes to snow Sunday morning
visibility will be lower than current forecast. For
KMWH/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE if the band of precipitation sets up further
south there would be more precipitation Sunday afternoon than
what the current forecast has. JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  41  31  43  32  40 /  40  10  20  40  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  35  41  29  41  32  39 /  60  40  20  60  30  60
Pullman        33  42  31  42  31  38 /  40  10  10  30  40  60
Lewiston       36  45  31  47  36  44 /  30  10  10  10  20  40
Colville       30  38  28  38  25  39 /  20  20  40  60  30  20
Sandpoint      33  36  27  37  30  41 /  60  60  30  80  60  60
Kellogg        33  39  25  39  32  38 /  60  40  20  70  50  80
Moses Lake     33  42  35  44  31  43 /  20  20  30  20  10  10
Wenatchee      32  37  31  41  32  43 /  10  60  50  20  10  10
Omak           30  38  34  39  29  38 /  10  60  60  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$