605 FXUS66 KOTX 130906 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 206 AM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds Monday into Tuesday with cold front passage. && .SYNOPSIS... Breezy and dry conditions will continue today with increasing winds this afternoon. Lighter winds and mild temperatures for the upcoming weekend. Warmer next week with an increasing risk for elevated fire weather conditions from gusty winds. && .DISCUSSION... Today and Tonight: An upper level low pressure system situated over the Gulf of Alaska will deliver a series of shortwave disturbances across the region over the next 24 to 36 hours. Their impact on our weather will be limited by a lack of moisture and instability. The first is push across northwest Oregon into southern Washington early this morning. Satellite imagery shows an area of mid to upper level clouds forming ahead of this disturbance. The NAM guidance indicates only a modest amount of Most Unstable CAPE, or MUCAPE on the order of up to 100 J/kg. It`s enough to get weak convection going at mid levels. The radar mosaic does show weak echoes developing with this convection and this may be enough to produce light showers or sprinkles, but I don`t expect much in the way of appreciable rainfall from this shower activity this morning. The next disturbance will be on the heals of the morning shortwave and track through in the afternoon. Surface based CAPE on the order of 100-400 J/kg is expected over the mountains of far north-central and northeast Washington, and also across the southeast portion of the region from the Northeast Blue Mountains and across the southern to central Idaho Panhandle. The CAPE off the models across the southeast portion of the region will be dependent on how much moisture we receive from the showers this morning: more rain would equate to better surface based instability for the afternoon around the Lewieston-Clarkston Valley, Pullman/Moscow, and to Clarkia and St. Maries in the Panhandle. The 00Z NAM shows a swath of around a quarter of an inch from convection this morning. That looks way overdone based on latest radar observations, and I`m thinking that its 400 J/kg of surface based CAPE for this afternoon in this area is inflated. The HREF guidance is more on the order of 100-200 J/kg and that seems much more reasonable. Expect convection with showers as that second shortwave swings through this morning, but the potential for thunderstorms is low with instability parameters looking rather anemic. Westerly winds will again be a little breezy today. Not looking to be as breezy as the past couple of days and less in the way of higher gusts across the region. The diurnal push of winds through the Cascade gaps will occur late in the afternoon with the Wenatchee area and Waterville Plateau blowing around 15-20 mph. Winds aloft won`t be as strong and we should see gusts having a harder time getting above 25 mph. A third and weaker shortwave disturbance moves through for tomorrow morning, and that will help force convection near the Canadian border over north-central Washington; however, this convection looks like it will be rather isolated and unlikely to impact our area much. Saturday through Sunday night: This weekend is looking fairly benign. There is a deeper shortwave trough of lower pressure that will round the upper level low, but it will take some time before it reaches the Northwest. Much of the Inland Northwest this weekend will stay dry. Temperatures will see a warming trend with highs trending back into the 80s regionwide. Winds look to weaken further over the weekend and will become mostly terrain driven by Sunday. A nice weekend to enjoy outdoor activities. Just keep in mind that temperatures will be warm and above normal for mid June. Pack the sunscreen and stay hydrated. Monday through Tuesday night: The shortwave trough of lower pressure rounding the upper low over the Gulf of Alaska will push across the Northwest early next week. Models are not exhibiting much in the way cold air advection though. The disturbance stretches and weakens. It will reinforce the westerly gradient and we`ll see a push of winds through the Cascade gaps. Monday will be our warmest day of the period with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s across much of the region. Relative humidity will bottom out in the upper teens in the lee of the Cascades and into the Upper Columbia Basin. Fire weather conditions will be elevated for those late afternoon into early evening hours. This breezy and dry period will be different that what we experienced earlier this week in the sense that temperatures won`t get as hot and relative humidity as dry. The marine layer looks to deepen considerably by Tuesday, and will more likely squeeze through the Cascade gaps. Cooler, marine air pushing across into eastern Washington will result in breezier westerly winds, but will also help to increase the relative humidity as well. Wednesday through Friday: Medium range model guidance are consolidating around a cold front passage for mid week with Wednesday looking like the most likely day. The cold front doesn`t look to be particularly strong, but will be more that just an onshore push of marine air into the Northwest. Western Washington stands a chance to pick up light precipitation, but the front looks to be mostly dry as it crosses the Cascades. Best chances (at around a 30% chance) for precipitation across the Inland Northwest will be across the northern mountains. Otherwise, all other areas will continue to be dry with passing cloud cover. The pressure gradient will increase with Wednesday looking to be the breeziest with wind gusts between 20-30 mph across the exposed areas of the Columbia Basin. The cold front will cool temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. /SVH && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: Light showers will develop across southeast Washington into the southern to central Idaho Panhandle between 12-18Z. Smoke from fires burning may result in hazy skies. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 77 49 77 50 80 53 / 10 0 0 0 10 0 Coeur d`Alene 77 49 77 50 80 51 / 10 0 0 0 10 10 Pullman 73 43 73 48 77 48 / 20 10 0 0 10 0 Lewiston 83 55 83 55 85 58 / 30 10 0 0 0 0 Colville 76 42 77 42 80 44 / 10 20 10 0 10 10 Sandpoint 76 49 77 46 79 47 / 10 10 0 0 10 10 Kellogg 73 52 74 54 77 56 / 20 10 0 0 10 10 Moses Lake 82 48 82 50 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 80 53 81 54 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 79 50 81 50 85 53 / 10 20 0 0 10 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$