919
FXUS65 KBOI 151508
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
908 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.DISCUSSION...Southwest flow continues over the area, bringing
high clouds, light breezes, and temps just above normal. We`re
still watching a weak trough on Monday, and updated the coverage
of thunderstorms. Latest model runs seem to hint at more Snake
Plain activity, chances for precipitation and thunder were
increased by about 10% in the Lower Snake Plain. HRRR wind gusts
suggest storms Monday afternoon could produce outflow gusts
around 25-30kt on average. Otherwise the forecast remains
unchanged.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with high clouds. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15kt. Winds
aloft at 10kft MSL...SW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR with high clouds. NW wind less than 10kt. Gusts to 15 kt
after 17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...With a strong ridge
centered over the desert southwest and troughing observed over
the e-Pacific, OR and ID will be sandwiched into warm southwest
flow aloft today into Monday. A very weak disturbance will
spread broken high clouds over the area throughout the day, but
temperatures are still expected to rise 5 degrees above normal
by this afternoon. By mid-day Monday, a shortwave Pacific trough
will move inland and support a 10-25% probability of high-
based showers and thunderstorms ahead/along a weak cold front.
Current hi-res ensemble guidance suggests 30-40 mph outflows could
generate from storm activity. Outside of storms, winds will shift to
northwest and become gusty Monday afternoon/evening with the cold
front. Zonal flow will then develop Tuesday behind the trough, with
the return to dry and mostly clear conditions.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...The ridge residing over
the desert southwest will build northward over the Intermountain
West Wednesday through Friday, placing E Oregon and SW Idaho
back into the warm southwest flow regime. Toward the end of the
week, a stronger trough will enter the Pacific Northwest and
bring a prominent cold front through the forecast area Friday-
Saturday. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase
(20-40%) over the weekend for the northern areas, with lower
chances closer to the NV border. Strong, gusty surface winds are
expected to develop from the tightening pressure gradient with
the cold front. Temperatures are currently forecast to lower 10
degrees by Friday and an additional 10 degrees by Saturday/Sunday.
In correlation, snow levels are also forecast to lower over the
weekend, potentially dipping as low as 5500-6500 feet MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION.....BW
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM....SH