504 FXUS65 KPIH 131137 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 537 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and storms in the central mountains and east and southeast mountains and highlands today. - Dry conditions this weekend with breezy afternoon winds. - Above normal temperatures through the duration of the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 315 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025 A weak shortwave will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to the central and east/southeast mountains and highlands, as well as breezy winds with gusts 20 to 30 mph during the afternoon. HREF shows moisture shifting into central Idaho beginning shortly after sunrise. By around 2 PM MDT, storms and showers will begin lifting northeastward across the southern and eastern portions of the state. The highest probability of thunder will be along the ID-WY border and MT Divide region, with HREF probability of thunder 30% and lower. Stronger storms will be capable of producing 30 to 40 mph outflow winds and small hail. Dry conditions will return on Saturday as high pressure amplifies over the Southwest and moisture remains further north. Temperatures will continue to run around 10 or more degrees above normal, with daytime highs in the 80s across the low elevations and 60s and 70s in the mountains and mountain valleys. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 315 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Strengthening high pressure over the Southwest will mean warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions across Southeast Idaho over the weekend. Daytime highs will reach 15 degrees, give or take, above climatological norms, with temperatures warming into the low 90s across the valleys and 70s and 80s in the higher elevations. 500mb ensemble clusters indicate that models are trending later with the timing of the next incoming trough, with the suppression of the ridge looking more likely Tuesday into Wednesday. Even heading into mid-week, the vast majority of solutions now maintain weak ridging or at least zonal flow over Southeast Idaho with predominant troughing not suggested until potentially late week. That said, long-range models continue to show the bulk of moisture confined to the northeastern mountains and further north, although some weak moisture signals could reach the ID-MT border region. At this time though, the main impacts of this system look to be breezy winds and slightly cooler temperatures early next week. In spite of this minor cooldown, temperatures will remain in well-above normal territory throughout the extended timeframe. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 530 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Expect VFR conditions through the period. There are mostly clear skies over the area currently. A weak wave moving will bring scattered clouds over the area this afternoon with increased winds, gusts of 20 to 25kts for all TAF sites. KDIJ has the best chance of thunderstorms. Have kept the PROB30 for thunderstorms this afternoon for KDIJ. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 315 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Look for isolated showers and thunderstorms today, mainly over our northern areas and the Southeast Highlands. Gusty outflow winds of around 30 to 40 mph are likely with any thunderstorms. Small hail is also likely with thunderstorms. High temperatures today will be in the 70s and 80s across the area. The area begins to dry out again by Friday and into the weekend with temperatures rising back to the 80s and 90s by Sunday. Models continue to show a weak wave moving over the area early next week bringing very low precipitation chances, but looks to drop temperatures slightly bringing back 70s and 80s. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cropp LONG TERM...Cropp AVIATION...TW FIRE WEATHER...TW