955
FXUS66 KOTX 312359
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
459 PM PDT Sat May 31 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong winds Saturday afternoon and evening will bring an elevated
risk for rapid fire spread along with isolated power outages
and hazardous boating conditions in central Washington.
- Elevated fire weather risk Sunday afternoon.
- Dry weather pattern continues through next week.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong winds Saturday afternoon and evening with a dry cold
will result in elevated fire weather conditions. Very dry
conditions and continued breezy winds on Sunday will keep fire
weather conditions elevated. Temperatures will remain near to
above average for Sunday through much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tomorrow: Mostly dry cold front crossing the Puget sound
and charging east early this afternoon. 1 PM pressure gradient for
PDX-GEG measured 11.6 mb, which is on par with the model depictions.
SEA-EAT sitting at 13.2 mb, far above the 8.5-9.5 mb gradient models
had this morning. This is reflected at Ellensburg where they have
already gusted to 56 mph 2-3 hours ahead of schedule. Confidence
increasing for Wenatchee to see wind gusts in the 45-55 mph range
this afternoon and evening. With that in mind, no changes to the
wind advisory. Mostly dry conditions expected with this front
passage unfortunately. Relative humidity values in the teens to low
20 percent range will bring an elevated risk for rapid fire spread
between 4-7PM, with RHs beginning to increase later in the evening.
Isolated power outages, light objects blowing around, patchy blowing
dust, and choppy lake conditions will also be a concern with these
winds. Winds will start to ease off after sunset below advisory
criteria but stay breezy. Dry air behind the front will keep
humidity values low in the teens to low 20s Sunday despite
temperatures being 10-15 degrees cooler in the 70s and low 80s.
Breezy conditions in the Okanogan valley and Cascade gaps with gusts
up to 30 mph and low humidities will contribute to elevated fire
weather conditions again tomorrow. Still monitoring strong
radiational cooling potential in the northeast valleys Sunday night.
The NBM gives Colville a 30 percent chance for low temp below 37
degrees Monday morning with everywhere else below 10 percent.
Monday through Saturday: A strengthening ridge offshore will act as
a block to our west for any incoming storm systems next week.
Temperatures will slowly increase from the 70s and 80s Monday to the
80s and 90s by Saturday. Winds will be breezy through the week with
embedded waves passing through southern Canada. Expecting little to
no precip the next 7 days. db
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Winds across the Inland Northwest are gusting with
sustained in the teens and 20s kts and gusts into the upper 30s
to mid 40s. Winds will be strongest across central Washington
through 05Z, including KEAT, KEPH, KMWH, KOMK with sustained
winds between 20 to 30 knots and wind gusts between 35 to 45
knots. For KGEG, sustained winds will be between 18-25 knots
with wind gusts up to 35 knots. Winds will calm overnight. Some
areas can have brief periods of breezy conditions Sunday
afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions. There is high confidence (90% chance) for
peak wind gusts greater than 40kt at KEPH and KEAT with medium
confidence (50-60% chance) for KMWH and KOMK.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane 48 73 47 73 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 48 71 45 72 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 45 69 42 69 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 54 77 49 76 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 42 72 36 73 41 76 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 49 73 44 72 44 75 / 10 0 0 10 0 0
Kellogg 48 69 47 67 48 71 / 0 0 0 10 0 10
Moses Lake 46 78 48 79 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 50 77 50 77 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 45 74 45 77 48 81 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Waterville Plateau-
Wenatchee Area.
ID...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.
&&
$$