306 FXUS65 KPIH 101138 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 538 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures continue for much of the week with some 90s low elevations, and some records possible Tuesday - A few isolated showers/storms possible today across the central mountains - Marginally severe storms possible on Wednesday && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 111 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 A weak shortwave will pass through the area to help trigger scattered showers and isoalted thunderstorms mainly from the central mountains into the upper Snake highlands. Most of the convection should diminish in the evening although a few light showers could persist through the night as mid level moisture streams through the region. A much stronger trough will arrive on Wednesday. Models show that there may be enough clearing in the afternoon combined with better mid to upper level dynamics in place for scattered marginally severe thunderstorms. Big questions are probably how much we clear out. Early indications from the 3km NAM and HRRR support the potential for stronger storms. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 111 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Pattern remains a little active on Thursday with another, but weaker shortwave moving through the central mountains. This will probably produce another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly across the mountains. Severe potential probably much lower with much weaker mid and upper level dynamics in play. As we move into the weekend, the flow turns southwesterly which should allow for warm conditions to continue. No significant systems are expected to pass through, so it looks mainly dry at this point. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 520 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Moisture moves into the area today from a weak shortwave in west southwesterly flow aloft. With heating, expect isolated showers and thunderstorms early this afternoon into the early evening. The 24-hr HREF Prob Thunder shows a 30 to 50 percent chance of tstms for KBYI and KPIH and a 50 to 70 percent chance of tstms for KSUN, KIDA, and KDIJ. Continued the PROB30 for thunderstorms for KSUN, KIDA, and KDIJ. Tstms chances will start around 19 to 20z and continue until around 2z. Outside of tstms, expect wind gusts this afternoon of around 15 to 22 kts. Thunderstorm outflows of up to around 30 to 35 mph are possible this afternoon into early evening.&& .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 111 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 High pressure with west southwesterly flow aloft will bring well above normal temperatures this afternoon. Some moisture will come through the high pressure today bringing afternoon isolated showers and thunderstorms to the area with best chances across the mountains in the Central mountains and the Montana Divide. A system will move through the area Wednesday bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into the evening. Strong outflows are expected with thunderstorms, especially on Wednesday. Temperatures will drop 4 to 8 degrees Wednesday and Thursday compared to today but temperatures will still be above normal. The area begins to dry out again towards the end of the week and into the weekend with temperatures rising back to the 80s and 90s by the weekend. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM...13 AVIATION...TW FIRE WEATHER...TW