741 FXUS65 KBOI 140915 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 315 AM MDT Mon Apr 14 2025 .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...A ridge of high pressure will slowly build through the week, bringing warm temperatures and dry conditions to the region through Wednesday. The warmest temperatures will occur on Tuesday as the ridge axis positions itself over the Intermountain West. Highs in the Treasure Valley will reach near 80F by Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will cool slightly on Wednesday, with an upper level low digging into the Pacific Northwest by Wednesday evening. Light showers will begin late Wednesday across higher terrain, with current forecasted precipitation chances around 20-40%. .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday... The low pressure system over the PacNW on Wednesday will then combine with the low off the coast of Southern California, merging into one larger trough and allowing for much cooler temperatures on Thursday. Model runs have steadily weakened this system, with the ECMWF and Canadian ensembles keeping the low center further east, effectively lowering precipitation chances. Model precipitable water values look to be lower than previous forecasts as well, barely scraping the 50th-60th percentile of normal for this time of year. Thursday and Friday still look to bring light rain and snow showers to higher terrain, but there is better agreement in limited precipitation over the valleys. The low will then move to the south of our area, allowing for a ridge to quickly build back in for the weekend. Sunday sees model disagreement on the next incoming trough. Some models show limited precip and a return to more zonal flow, while other runs push much cooler air into the region with widespread showers. && .AVIATION...VFR with some mid level clouds in the Magic Valley. Surface winds: SE-E 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft: variable 10 kt or less, shifting to S-SW 10-20 kt by Mon/22Z. KBOI...VFR with lingering haze mixing out by the afternoon. Surface winds: SE 5-10 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...SA LONG TERM....SA AVIATION.....SA