023 FXUS65 KBOI 150930 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 330 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...An upper level trough will move by to our north today, sending a weak cold front through our area. Temperatures today will drop 5-10 degrees from yesterday, ending up near normal. Most areas will see northwest gusts of 20-30 mph this afternoon, but peak gusts of 30-40 mph are possible in the Upper Treasure Valley east of Boise this afternoon, as well as between Ontario and Baker City this evening. Breezy winds and low relative humidity will result in elevated fire weather conditions. Additionally, smoke from fires around the region will impact our area. The main contributor will be the Cram Fire in north-central Oregon which produced a large smoke plume that drifted southeast yesterday evening. Finally, while better moisture will remain generally east of our area, there will be just enough for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening along the higher terrain south of Twin Falls and in the central Idaho mountains east of McCall. Any storms could produce gusts of 40-50 mph. The upper trough will move east on Wednesday, resulting in dry northwest flow aloft. Temperatures will be similar to today with lighter winds and little to no chance of showers/thunderstorms across the area. On Thursday, an upper ridge over the southwestern US will build north, bringing hotter temperatures back to the area. Highs are expected to be around 5 degrees above normal, with a 30-60% chance of highs 100 degrees or higher in the Treasure Valley. Very limited monsoonal moisture may drift north on Thursday with the expansion of the ridge, resulting in a minimal (less than 10%) chance of showers/thunderstorms. .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Hot temperatures and a very low thunderstorm threat will continue on Friday as the upper level ridge and limited moisture remain in place. On Saturday, an upper level trough will start to deepen along the coast, with ensembles generally bringing the trough slowly inland to our north early next week. This will keep higher shower/thunderstorm chances to our north, but the trough should cool temperatures back to near normal. Moderate zonal to southwest flow aloft will bring breezy afternoon winds across much of the area through the period. && .AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Areas of wildfire smoke reducing visibility, especially across southeast Oregon near KBNO where MVFR conditions are possible. Isolated showers and thunderstorms east of KMYL and south of KTWF this afternoon and early evening. Any storms may produce gusts to 40 kt. Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt this morning, increasing to 10-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt this afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 15-30 kt. KBOI...Patchy smoke from area wildfires, but likely to remain VFR. Otherwise, mostly clear. Surface winds: W-NW 4-8 kt early this morning, increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt after 15/16Z. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...ST LONG TERM....ST AVIATION.....ST