178 FXUS66 KOTX 101115 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 415 AM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and locally breezy Thursday - Warmer again with above normal temperatures this weekend and into next week && .SYNOPSIS... After a brief cool down on Thursday, warm temperatures will return over the weekend into next week along with a continued dry weather pattern. Winds will also be locally breezy at times, especially across Central Washington. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Sunday: For today there is a passing upper trough that will slide to our north across southeast British Columbia. The main impact from this will be to bring a shift from west winds to north winds heading into the late afternoon and evening. Channeling of winds down the Okanogan Valley will result in breezy north winds for elevated fire weather conditions. There will also be just enough instability over the North ID Panhandle for a 20% chance of afternoon showers. Drier air with this north wind push will allow for clearing skies overnight heading into Friday. The increased sunshine on Friday will result in warmer temperatures as high temperatures climb back above normal in the upper 80s to mid 90s. The warming continues over the weekend as highs climb into the 90s, with the warmest locations Sunday close to the 100F mark. The flat ridge and westerly flow will result in an enhanced cross-Cascade pressure gradient leading to breezy late afternoon/evening west winds across Central WA especially near the Cascade gaps. Monday through Wednesday: The forecast gets a little more uncertain as a ridge amplifies off the coast allowing a potential wave to drop in from the northwest Monday into Tuesday. 65% of the 12z ensemble members show a weak wave dropping in resulting in locally breezy north winds and elevated fire weather conditions. 35% show a stronger north push, which would result in elevated to critical fire weather concerns due to dry, windy conditions especially for the Okanogan Valley and Columbia Basin. The 00z ensemble means from the ECMWF and Canadian support the stronger solution so this will continue to be monitored. Following this, the offshore ridge begins to flatten but mean ridging remains for warm and dry weather. JW && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected to continue for all TAF sites through 12z Friday. A weak weather system passing north and east of the area on Thursday will bring a 20% chance of a rain shower to the North Idaho Panhandle otherwise dry conditions are expected. This will also bring about a wind shift, from west-southwest tonight to north-northwest heading into Thursday afternoon and evening. Winds will also be locally breezy on Thursday, with gusts of 15-20 kts, except 25 kts at KEAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence that VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites. The Hope and Western Pines Fires over NE Washington could advect some smoke into the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene area late Thursday afternoon into the evening with the northwest wind shift. But given decreased heat on satellite tonight, and that the smoke would more likely be aloft, surface visibility is not expected to remain above 6 miles. JW ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 83 55 88 59 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 81 54 87 58 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 79 51 84 54 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 89 63 94 64 98 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 80 45 87 49 92 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 78 50 84 53 87 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 77 57 84 61 87 64 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 88 58 93 60 97 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 85 63 93 68 95 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 84 55 92 62 96 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$