178
FXUS66 KOTX 101115
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
415 AM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and locally breezy Thursday

- Warmer again with above normal temperatures this weekend and
  into next week

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
After a brief cool down on Thursday, warm temperatures will
return over the weekend into next week along with a continued
dry weather pattern. Winds will also be locally breezy at
times, especially across Central Washington.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday: For today there is a passing upper trough
that will slide to our north across southeast British Columbia.
The main impact from this will be to bring a shift from west
winds to north winds heading into the late afternoon and
evening. Channeling of winds down the Okanogan Valley will
result in breezy north winds for elevated fire weather
conditions. There will also be just enough instability over the
North ID Panhandle for a 20% chance of afternoon showers. Drier
air with this north wind push will allow for clearing skies
overnight heading into Friday. The increased sunshine on Friday
will result in warmer temperatures as high temperatures climb
back above normal in the upper 80s to mid 90s. The warming
continues over the weekend as highs climb into the 90s, with the
warmest locations Sunday close to the 100F mark. The flat ridge
and westerly flow will result in an enhanced cross-Cascade
pressure gradient leading to breezy late afternoon/evening west
winds across Central WA especially near the Cascade gaps.

Monday through Wednesday: The forecast gets a little more
uncertain as a ridge amplifies off the coast allowing a
potential wave to drop in from the northwest Monday into Tuesday.
65% of the 12z ensemble members show a weak wave dropping in
resulting in locally breezy north winds and elevated fire
weather conditions. 35% show a stronger north push, which would
result in elevated to critical fire weather concerns due to dry,
windy conditions especially for the Okanogan Valley and
Columbia Basin. The 00z ensemble means from the ECMWF and
Canadian support the stronger solution so this will continue to
be monitored. Following this, the offshore ridge begins to
flatten but mean ridging remains for warm and dry weather. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected to continue for all TAF
sites through 12z Friday. A weak weather system passing north
and east of the area on Thursday will bring a 20% chance of a
rain shower to the North Idaho Panhandle otherwise dry
conditions are expected. This will also bring about a wind
shift, from west-southwest tonight to north-northwest heading
into Thursday afternoon and evening. Winds will also be locally
breezy on Thursday, with gusts of 15-20 kts, except 25 kts at
KEAT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
that VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites. The Hope
and Western Pines Fires over NE Washington could advect some
smoke into the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene area late Thursday
afternoon into the evening with the northwest wind shift.
But given decreased heat on satellite tonight, and that the
smoke would more likely be aloft, surface visibility is not
expected to remain above 6 miles. JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        83  55  88  59  92  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  81  54  87  58  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        79  51  84  54  88  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       89  63  94  64  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       80  45  87  49  92  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      78  50  84  53  87  57 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        77  57  84  61  87  64 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     88  58  93  60  97  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      85  63  93  68  95  71 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           84  55  92  62  96  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$