410 FXUS65 KPIH 130452 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1052 PM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon ending after sunset. - Isolated showers and storms in the central mountains and Montana Divide region on Friday. - Above normal temperatures through the duration of the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 113 PM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Expect isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening in the southern mountains and near the Montana border with low precipitation amounts expected. Main threat will be outflow wind gusts to 40 mph and small hail. Strong southwest flow aloft continues tomorrow but expect drier conditions and less thunderstorm coverage again with again best chance near the Montana border but current grids avoid any activity Friday. Lows tonight in the 40s and 50s with highs Friday 70s mountains and 80s valleys. Lows Friday night again in the 40s and 50s. Expect breezier conditions Friday with sustained winds in the 10 to 20 mph range especially northern parts of the Snake Plain and towards the Montana border. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 113 PM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025 By Sat, the thunderstorm threat has moved out of everywhere but the extreme northeast end, even north of Island Park. This shifting eastward means the upper level ridge builds in for the weekend, and conditions return to well above normal by Sun, temperature-wise. Sun now is the warmest day of the week, with afternoon highs 12 to 17 deg F above normal. The breakdown of this upper level ridge starts to develop Mon, instead of Tue. However, this breakdown is not great, even by afternoon, as all clusters have positive height anomalies. It will be noted that the most advanced breakdown is the cluster for just over 40 percent of the solutions. Even Tue and Wed are not definitive on the breakdown of the upper level ridge with only 52 percent of the solutions showing any neutral or negative 500mb height anomalies. This leads to a forecast of perhaps some light showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly for mountains and highlands, with little else going on except clouds to keep temperatures near normal by Tue, which will be the coolest day this week. A warming trend develops by Wed with dry near-zonal flow. The only thing may be wind and the above normal temperatures to contend with for Wed and Thu. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1052 PM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Following scattered showers and thunderstorms today, dry conditions and mostly clear skies will return overnight into Friday morning as the final showers and storms depart northeast. A weak shortwave trough passing overhead on Friday will support an uptick in afternoon clouds, breezy winds with gusts peaking around 15-25 kts, and isolated showers and thunderstorms in the mountains further north and east. Have maintained a dry forecast for the time being at all terminals outside of KDIJ where a PROB30 -TSRA has been introduced Friday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Look for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening with moisture moving into the area in southwest flow aloft. Gusty outflow winds of around 30 to 40 mph are likely with any thunderstorms. Small hail is also likely with thunderstorms. High temperatures today will be in the 70s and 80s across the area. The area begins to dry out again by Friday and into the weekend with temperatures rising back to the 80s and 90s by the weekend. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GK LONG TERM...Messick AVIATION...MacKay FIRE WEATHER...TW