027
FXUS65 KBOI 090228
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
828 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.DISCUSSION...Skies will be mostly clear tonight into Wednesday
as dry southwest flow aloft continues. High temperatures
Wednesday will be similar to today in most areas, or around 10
to 15 degrees above normal. However, a weak and dry cold front
will start to move into SE Oregon and far western Idaho in the
afternoon with temperatures cooling a few degrees in these
areas. Additional cooling will take place Thursday as the front
pushes through. Breezy winds in the higher terrain and dry
conditions will result in elevated fire weather conditions on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Areas of smoke near wildfires degrading
visibility in the central Idaho mountains and portions of SE
Oregon. Surface winds: variable around 10 kt or less, except SW
10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt Wednesday afternoon across the
higher terrain. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 15-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR under clear skies. Surface winds: SE 6-11 kt,
becoming NW 4-8 kt Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...Fairly dry SW
flow aloft will continue through the short term period. There is
just enough moisture in this flow to enable convection in the
far SE portion of the CWA today...namely in/near southern Twin
Falls County. Anything that forms over our area should move
east by 6 PM MDT, with gusty winds the primary impact. A weak
shortwave trough will move by to our north Wed, helping to
increase winds and clouds but not bringing any precipitation.
Wind gusts on the peaks of the central ID mtns will reach 25-35
mph in the afternoon, with gusts 20-30 mph in/near Owyhee
County. Otherwise, winds will generally be out of the W to NW at
5-15 mph. Wed will be dry and warm, with highs from the upper
70s to the lower 80s in the lower elevations. Thursday will be
cooler by 5-10 degrees thanks to a weak cold front that will
move through Wed night, but Thu will still be 5-10 degrees above
normal.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...SW flow continues through
the long term period, with above-normal temperatures. A small
closed low is forecast to move onshore near the OR/CA state
line late Sat, but weaken as it moves ENE toward our area.
Models differ on the strength and longevity of this feature,
with just enough of the ensemble members bringing light
precipitation to the area to warrant a low chance (10-25%) PoP
late Tuesday. Temps are expected to remain 10-15 degrees above
normal, which translates into highs in the 70s to near 80 for
lower elevations.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...ST
AVIATION.....ST
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....SP