626
FXUS65 KBOI 161558
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
958 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.DISCUSSION... Today remains the warmest day of the week as
temperatures will reach the high 60s to low 70s. Looking at
satellite, the cold front that will move through the region
later today is currently entering eastern Oregon, moving
southeast. High-res models show instability building in mostly
in the western Magic Valley and near the ID/NV boarder. There
remains a low (10-20%) chance of thunderstorms along the ID/NV
boarder. Current forecast looks to be on track.

&&

.AVIATION...Generally VFR. After Wed/21Z, localized MVFR/IFR in
snow showers for west-central ID. Rain showers and slight
chance (15%) of thunderstorms expected along NV/ID border, with
outflow winds up to 25-35 kt. Surface winds: W to N 10-20 kt
with afternoon gusts 20-30 kt. Gusts increasing tonight. Winds
aloft at 10kft: W to NW 15-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: W-NW 8-15 kt with afternoon gusts to
20-25 kt. Increasing gusts tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...Zonal flow will bring
warm and dry weather ahead of a pattern shift tonight. Highs
will be about 5 degrees lower from yesterday, still a tad above
normal for most locations. Clouds will gradually increase this
evening, as a cold low pressure system descends into the region
from British Columbia. By nightfall, snow showers will begin
over the West Central Mountains with a rain-snow mix over the
Magic Valley as breezy northwest winds overwhelm the whole
region. Some instability exists as the initial cold front moves
in, so a low chance of thunderstorms has been added to the
forecast to account for a stray late evening thunderstorm in the
mountains/ID-NV border.

This low will then dive down to the southeast, keeping the
majority of the precipitation over in Eastern Idaho. Cold
temperatures, about 5-10 degrees below normal, will occur on
Thursday with the best chance for precipitation staying near the
ID-NV border and Central ID Mountains. Some hi-res models are
hinting at a strong snow shower occurring over the Magic Valley
during late Thursday-early Friday. Light rain-snow mix or snow
could occur over the Magic Valley, but accumulations will be
limited, with about a 10% chance of any snow accumulation in the
lower elevations near Twin Falls by Friday morning. A ridge
will then build in from the West on Friday afternoon, bringing
slightly warmer temperatures and widespread drying.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...The quick passing
ridge will bring slightly warmer temperatures for the region on
Saturday. The Treasure Valley will reach the low to mid 60s,
with higher elevations hitting the low 50s. A weak shortwave
will then move through late Saturday, bringing another cool down
with higher precipitation chances for mountains on Sunday. A
broader trough will stay fixed near the US-Canada border through
early next week, with most of the moisture staying to our north
and east. Cooler near normal temperatures with cloudy
conditions will prevail through the middle of next week, with
low forecast confidence in any measurable precipitation for the
region.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.x.com/NWSBoise

DISCUSSION...NF
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....SA