617 FXUS65 KPIH 102312 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 512 PM MDT Thu Apr 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A warming trend is underway, with near-record warmth in the 70s to nearly 80 expected today and Friday. - A trough arriving Saturday will bring back a chance of rain, high elevation snow, and isolated thunderstorms, along with much cooler temperatures and very windy conditions. - High pressure will return next Monday, supporting dry conditions and above normal temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 157 PM MDT Thu Apr 10 2025 The short term forecast is all about trying to break some record high temperatures. We`re aiming for it today, with our records sitting in the upper 70s for Burley, Pocatello, Idaho Falls, and Challis. Here at the office, we`ve already reached 73 degrees The record high for Stanley today is in the mid 60s. The probability of a new record is highest in Burley where the NBM shows about a 90 percent chance of at least reaching 80 degrees. The latest data is showing about a 50 to 60 percent chance of reaching 80 at the Pocatello Airport, though that drops to about a 20 percent chance in town. It also shows a 50 to 60 percent chance of Stanley reaching 65 this afternoon. Afternoon winds will be gusting to around 20 to 25 mph with some stronger gusts around 30 mph on ridge tops in the Central Mountains. Our ridge of high pressure begins to shift eastward on Friday which will help Pocatello and Idaho Falls either stay at almost the same afternoon high temperatures as today or even warm a degree or two. Temperatures will drop a couple of degrees for Friday afternoon for areas farther west. As the ridge moves eastward, wind gusts will pick up a bit in the Central Mountains and upper Snake River Plain with gusts around 30 to 35 mph with some stronger gusts up on ridge tops. Let`s get into record highs and their percent chance of at least reaching that on Friday based on current NBM probabilities... Pocatello: 76 / 70 to 80 percent chance. Idaho Falls: 76 / 50 to 60 percent chance. Burley: 80 / 20 to 30 percent chance. Challis: 77 / 40 to 50 percent chance. Stanley: 66 / 20 to 30 percent chance. As Friday goes on, we will also see increasing cloud cover moving into the area as our next system begins to move into the area. We will also see the potential for some light mountain snow up in the Sawtooths and Central Mountains late Friday night as precipitation chances increase through the night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 157 PM MDT Thu Apr 10 2025 A low passing to our northeast through the weekend will keep some showers going along the Montana and Wyoming borders. We might even see a few thunderstorms around Island Park as well. While it will be noticeably cooler, the bigger risk may end up being blowing dust and/or strong crosswinds on Saturday. Current probability forecasts shows a high likelihood of exceeding WIND ADVISORY thresholds (gusts over 45 mph) for most of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. There is a 10-40% chance of exceeding 55 mph (just at HIGH WIND WARNING numbers) across the Arco Desert and Upper Plain. For the start of next week, we look to dry out again with high pressure building across our area. We will need to watch out for midweek and beyond. The pattern flattens out a bit as a weak wave and weakening low pressure to our south sweep through, bring the potential for some more showers and a brief cooldown. the trend in the models and our Blend of Models has been DOWNWARD with the chance of showers and that trend continues. With that, the Blend has trended some 20 degrees warmer...keeping things in the 70s vs 50s. The models are also trending toward a quicker return to high pressure, which is favored in 45-50% of the clusters. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 512 PM MDT Thu Apr 10 2025 A few gusts of 20 to 25 kts have developed in associated with afternoon heating. Expect those gusts to dissipate by 02Z or 03Z this evening. Otherwise mainly looking at scattered to broken high clouds drifting through tonight and during the day tomorrow. Winds expected to be mainly light overnight and tomorrow morning potentially some gusts to 20kts developing tomorrow afternoon. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AMM LONG TERM...Keyes AVIATION...13