649 FXUS65 KPIH 111850 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1250 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal risk for severe storms today. - Isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. - Flash flood watch over Wapiti burn scar in Custer County this afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1238 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Upper level short wave trof continued to progress east through Idaho this afternoon. Is kicking off fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms with likely the most widespread at trof passage from 2 pm through 6 pm. After 6 pm should be mainly limited to eastern mountains with the main threat wind gusts over 40 mph and small hail. There is a chance for an isolated severe storm and area remains in a marginal risk. Lows tonight in the 40s and 50s. Expect thunderstorm redevelopment Thursday afternoon but not nearly as widespread as today and mainly limited to the mountains. Coverage mainly isolated throughout the day. Highs Thursday in the 70s mountains and 80s valleys. Lows Thursday night in the 40s and 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025 The upper level ridge at the end of the near term forecast continues to block lows to the north through the weekend. On Mon, there is a 28 percent chance of the upper level ridge beginning to break down, but 72 percent chance the ridge is still in place. A flatter flow develops on Tue for the majority of solutions, with a 12 percent chance of an open wave being directly overhead. The flat flow continues to be the majority solution, which could lead to light showers and thunderstorms. On either end of the solution spectrum, there is a slightly less than 15 percent risk of that upper level trough still lingering and similarly for a new upper level ridge to build into forecast area. The southerly airflow ahead of the potential trough on Mon will make that day the warmest of the period. Temperatures are in the middle to upper 80s with some small areas reaching 90 deg F at the lower elevations, and upper 70s to lower 80s in the central Idaho mountains. The flatter flow should provide some cloudiness starting Tue to take the edge off temperatures, by 1 to 4 deg F. by Wed it appears the preponderance of the solutions is to return to warming. With the zonal flow period on Tue-Wed, would expect breezy to windy conditions possible, mainly on ridges and in the eastern Magic Valley and lower Snake River plain. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025 TSRA probabilities for the afternoon have increased to the point where PROB30 groups are useful. -SHRA has gone nearly categorical for some this afternoon. By 11/22Z, skies will start to clear from west to east, so first is KBYI, then KSUN, KPIH, KIDA, then KDIJ by 12/03Z. Skies for most will be literally clear, with another feature generating clouds late tonight. KIDA also has a risk of getting some clouds below 2500ft AGL. Wind will be moderately strong in thunderstorms, with gusts to 35KT-40KT. Precipitation has the potential to be moderate to heavy at times, with Precipitable Water as high an inch in the KPIH/KIDA area. Expecting a return of TSRA on Thu afternoon, but no risk of severe TS. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1256 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025 A strong system/trough will move through the area today bringing widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms late this morning into the early evening. Moderate to strong outflows and moderate to large hail are expected with thunderstorms. Also, expect moderate to heavy brief rainfall with thunderstorms. Isolated flooding is possible, especially for the Wapiti burn scar north of Stanley. Temperatures will drop 4 to 8 degrees (70s to 80s) today and Thursday compared to yesterday but temperatures will still be above normal. Isolated thunderstorms are expected Thursday as well. The area begins to dry out again towards the end of the week and into the weekend with temperatures rising back to the 80s and 90s by the weekend. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ072. && $$ SHORT TERM...GK LONG TERM...Messick AVIATION...Messick FIRE WEATHER...TW