154 FXUS65 KPIH 152337 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 537 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Weak low pressure will bring a threat of precipitation and thunderstorms to areas from Sun Valley north to the Montana border on Monday. - Breezy over Craters of the Moon and the Arco Desert. - Windy on Friday, then turning much cooler for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1234 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025 While tonight is expected to be quiet with the thunderstorm and shower activity staying north in Montana, an approaching upper level trough will bring a slight chance to chance level threat to the northern half of the forecast area, as early as Mon morning. Any showers or thunderstorms should disappear during the early evening. This low will have little effect on temperature, bringing things slightly colder, on the order of 1 to 3 deg F. Wind will increase, but only the Craters of the Moon NM and the Arco Desert will see wind exceed even 15 mph, save for mountain ridges. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Weak shortwave finishes traversing through East Idaho on Tuesday, with mainly isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon for the Island Park/Yellowstone region. Tuesday also still looks to be the "coolest" day of the week with highs generally around 80 for most lower elevation locations. Temperatures rebound for Wednesday and Thursday, potentially reaching mid-90s for some areas Thursday, mainly the Eastern Magic Valley and Snake River Plain. Gusty winds continue for each afternoon. The next system approaches the PacNW coast Friday as a deep closed low just off the coast. Winds increase across the region, and NBM means are already pushing Wind Advisory for portions of the Upper Snake Plain Friday afternoon. As the low is projected to swing across the region for the weekend, temps cool off and we see increased chances for precipitation. There is still quite a spread across precipitation chances and temperatures. The ensemble clusters all agree on a trough for the weekend, varying in depth and slightly in timing. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 537 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Upper-level clouds will continue to build into eastern Idaho out of the southwest overnight and throughout the day Monday as conditions remain dry. Light winds will return overnight ahead of a diurnal increase during the daytime hours Monday, with gusts peaking around 15-25 kts. Best shower and thunderstorm development for Monday afternoon/evening looks to remain confined to the Central Mountains and Continental Divide, however the HREF model probability of thunder does show a 10-20% chance at KPIH, KIDA, and KSUN and 30-40% chance at KDIJ, but only less than a 10% chance at KBYI. Given variability in model guidance on timing and placement of shower and thunderstorm development with the bulk of model guidance keeping activity away from terminals, have kept with a dry forecast for now as we evaluate the latest model guidance for future TAF issuances. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lemhi region this afternoon. Areal coverage for isolated thunderstorms extends further south into the central mountains and perhaps the southern highlands Monday afternoon. Peak gusts this afternoon and Monday afternoon will likely be 20 to 25 mph and minimum humidities in the teens to low 20s. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Messick LONG TERM...DMH AVIATION...MacKay FIRE WEATHER...13