382
FXHW60 PHFO 260656
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
856 PM HST Mon Nov 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool northeasterly winds and a high pressure ridge over the island
chain will keep stable conditions, cool nights, and relatively dry
humidity levels across the state through much of this week. Trade
winds will strengthen a bit and shift from a more easterly
direction from Thursday into Saturday. Expect a few more clouds
and brief passing overnight to early morning showers, mainly over
windward and mountain areas as these trade winds return. Trade
wind speeds will decline once again early next week in a fairly
stable regime.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The satellite imagery this evening shows a stable weather pattern
with a subtropical jet stream in the upper levels just south of
the Big Island. A small band of low clouds upstream of the
islands in Maui County might keep some extra clouds along the
windward areas of Molokai and Maui into Tuesday. Elsewhere mostly
clear and mostly sunny skies will continue through much of this
week.

A stable and dry light wind weather pattern will continue through
Wednesday with strong subsidence (downward vertical motions)
under the influence of a high pressure ridge aloft. Afternoon
onshore sea breeze winds will develop over all islands in this
light wind pattern. Relatively dry moisture levels across the
state will allow for increased radiational cooling (releasing heat
into space),resulting in below normal overnight to early morning
temperatures statewide through at least Thursday morning. The
strong subsidence aloft will keep temperature inversion heights in
the 4,000 to 5,000 foot range through Wednesday. Resulting in
limited low clouds in this stable pattern with almost no chance of
rainfall.

Trade winds will increase slightly and veer from a more easterly
direction from Thursday into the weekend allowing for a small
increase to humidity levels. Overall atmospheric conditions will
remain fairly stable and dry weather trends will continue into the
upcoming weekend. Trade winds will trend lower once again early
next week with limited clouds and showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
Weak northerly flow over the state will bring scattered
low clouds with a few light showers tonight, mainly windward
areas. This will also lead to localized land breezes tonight with
sea breezes during the day. Some brief MVFR ceilings will be
possible with any clouds or showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions
should prevail. Trade winds are expected to gradually return on
Tuesday afternoon.

No AIRMETs are in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate northerly winds will gradually shift out of the
northeast and increase into the moderate to fresh category Tuesday
through midweek as high pressure builds north of the area. Expect
localized wind accelerations reaching moderate to fresh levels
near and along some east and west facing coasts through the late
morning and afternoon periods, while the background north to
northeast flow persists. Winds may ease next weekend with a
potential front passing to the north.

Surf along exposed north and west facing shores will remain up
into Thursday, due to a mix of a fresh, long-period west-
northwest swell and a couple of fading, shorter period north-
northwest and north-northeast swells. This newly arriving west-
northwest swell that has been filling in this evening will peak
Tuesday into Tuesday night below the advisory levels, then lower
Wednesday through Thursday. Toward the end of the week, a larger
long-period west-northwest swell is expected due to a storm-
force low developing around 1500-2000 NM west-northwest of the
islands tonight through Tuesday. If conditions develop as
forecast, surf heights could reach warning levels late Friday into
early Saturday before easing during the remainder of the weekend.

Surf along east facing shores will remain up through the weekend
due to a lingering short-period north-northeast swell and a new
short-period northeast swell expected late Thursday through the
weekend. Heights will peak Friday into the weekend well below the
advisory level as this northeast swell arrives and peaks.

Surf along S facing shores will remain near seasonal averages
this week, driven by a mix of short period SE and background
long period SSW swells. Early next week, an out-of-season SSW
is possible. This swell is expected to originate from a recent
broad gale passing southeast of New Zealand. This active trend may
persist through the first week of December as a similar system
passing near New Zealand is forecast to follow later this week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
We do not foresee any critical fire weather conditions developing
through the first half of next week as wind speeds will remain
below critical thresholds. Dry relative humidity levels may
briefly touch fire weather criteria over drier leeward zones this
week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin
AVIATION...Shigesato
MARINE...Gibbs