405 FXHW60 PHFO 111311 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 311 AM HST Wed Jun 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A trough to the west and a ridge to the northeast will drive moderate east-southeast winds through today, then strengthen through the end of the week. Trade winds will focus clouds and a few showers across windward and mauka areas. && .DISCUSSION... Currently, this morning looking at radar a few showers are scattered across the island chain. A few plumes are ongoing to the south and west of the islands but these shouldn`t be a long term feature. Satellite shows typical easterly trade clouds with some high level cirrus streaming in from a decaying system far to the southwest. A surface trough to the west and a ridge to the northeast will drive moderate east-northeast winds across the state today. Clouds and scattered showers will impact windward and mauka areas. A hybrid sea breeze pattern is possible along western slopes with some clouds developing. Stable, zonal flow aloft will keep showers relatively light this week. The aforementioned trough will gradually weaken Wednesday through Friday with high pressure filling in north of the area. Trade winds across the islands will strengthen around midweek as the trough weakens. Trades will increase even further this weekend. Any showers and isolated pockets of rain should follow typical trends for this time of year with more showers in the overnight and early morning hours. With the increase in trades expected showers to favor windward and mauka locations across the chain as we head through this weekend. && .AVIATION... Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue across the island chain through this evening, then strengthen slightly tomorrow. Clouds and showers will tend to favor windward and mauka areas as pockets of moisture roll in on the trades, particularly during the overnight to early morning hours. Outside of any brief showers, VFR conditions will generally prevail through tomorrow. No AIRMETs are currently in effect this afternoon. Overnight, AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration may be needed for windward areas if shower coverage expands and persists. && .MARINE... High pressure remains nearly stationary far northeast of the islands through the week re-centering to north and strengthening this weekend. As a result, fresh to locally strong trades will become strong on a more widespread basis during the weekend into early next week. The Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island through Thursday. Surf along south facing shores will slowly decline over the next couple of days before a small, moderate period south swell fills in Friday into the weekend. Surf along east facing shores will remain moderate and choppy due to moderate trade wind swell, and surf along north facing shores will remain tiny through the forecast period. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Walsh AVIATION...Walsh MARINE...Shigesato