785 FXHW60 PHFO 110135 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 335 PM HST Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure far north and northeast of the state will maintain moderate to locally breezy trades through Friday, with winds starting to weaken over the weekend. Expect to see fairly typical summertime weather into next week as clouds and showers favor windward and mauka areas. && .DISCUSSION... A 1032 mb surface high remains well north and northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, with moderate to locally breezy trades blowing across the state this afternoon. Satellite imagery continues to show clouds moving into windward and mauka areas, with a band of moisture moving towards Maui County. Radar imagery shows some enhanced showers embedded in this moisture that is currently moving into Molokai. Expect this band of moisture to shift towards Oahu and Kauai tonight bringing a slight increase in clouds and showers. Otherwise, expect fairly typical summertime conditions tonight. Guidance continues to show the high slowly drifting north over the weekend and into next week, with winds weakening a bit starting Saturday. It also shows no organized bands of moisture upstream of the islands, with a fairly typical dry and stable summertime air mass over the region. As such, expect clouds to favor windward and mauka areas, with passing showers moving in at times through the forecast period. Kona Slopes of the Big Island will also continue to see the typical summertime afternoon showers as the sea breeze develops across leeward Big Island. The one wrinkle to the forecast will be the evolution of an upper level disturbance to the north of the islands. This disturbance could help to enhance instability over the western half of the state which could bring some enhanced showers this weekend and early next week. && .AVIATION... Fresh to locally strong winds will persist into the weekend. AIRMET Tango is posted for tempo moderate turbulence below 8000 feet leeward of mountains for all Hawaiian islands due to winds and the stable atmosphere. A band of incoming low clouds and showers will impact Maui County late this afternoon and tonight, and spread to Oahu later tonight. AIRMET Sierra is posted for tempo mountain obscurations above 2500 feet along windward sides of Maui and Molokai. This AIRMET will likely be needed for windward Oahu later tonight, and possibly Kauai early Friday morning. Prevailing VFR conditions expected for Big Island. && .MARINE... High pressure far northeast of the Hawaiian waters will drive moderate to locally strong trade winds through Friday. As such, the Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the typical windy waters around Maui County and Big Island through Friday afternoon. Trades will ease slightly later this weekend into early next week as the high moves further away to the north. The recent small, long period south swell will continue its decline through tomorrow. Two more small, long period south swells are scheduled to arrive Friday night into Saturday and Sunday night into Monday. The first of these swells will likely only lead to a minor bump in surf, while the second is expected to be a little more noticeable. However, south-facing shore surf will likely remain below the summer average through the next several days. East-facing shore surf will remain rough and choppy as moderate to locally strong trades blow through Friday, then drop a notch as the trades ease slightly later this weekend into early next week. A very small northwest swell originating behind a front hanging up far northwest of the islands is expected to arrive early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through Friday, then weaken slightly over the weekend and into next week. Afternoon relative humidity remains near summertime normals, with fairly typical fire weather conditions expected. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ahue AVIATION...Foster MARINE...Farris FIRE WEATHER...Ahue