785
FXHW60 PHFO 110135
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
335 PM HST Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure far north and northeast of the state will maintain
moderate to locally breezy trades through Friday, with winds
starting to weaken over the weekend. Expect to see fairly typical
summertime weather into next week as clouds and showers favor
windward and mauka areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1032 mb surface high remains well north and northeast of the
Hawaiian Islands, with moderate to locally breezy trades blowing
across the state this afternoon. Satellite imagery continues to
show clouds moving into windward and mauka areas, with a band of
moisture moving towards Maui County. Radar imagery shows some
enhanced showers embedded in this moisture that is currently
moving into Molokai. Expect this band of moisture to shift towards
Oahu and Kauai tonight bringing a slight increase in clouds and
showers. Otherwise, expect fairly typical summertime conditions
tonight.

Guidance continues to show the high slowly drifting north over the
weekend and into next week, with winds weakening a bit starting
Saturday. It also shows no organized bands of moisture upstream of
the islands, with a fairly typical dry and stable summertime air
mass over the region. As such, expect clouds to favor windward
and mauka areas, with passing showers moving in at times through
the forecast period. Kona Slopes of the Big Island will also
continue to see the typical summertime afternoon showers as the
sea breeze develops across leeward Big Island.

The one wrinkle to the forecast will be the evolution of an upper
level disturbance to the north of the islands. This disturbance
could help to enhance instability over the western half of the
state which could bring some enhanced showers this weekend and
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Fresh to locally strong winds will persist into the weekend.
AIRMET Tango is posted for tempo moderate turbulence below 8000
feet leeward of mountains for all Hawaiian islands due to winds
and the stable atmosphere.

A band of incoming low clouds and showers will impact Maui County
late this afternoon and tonight, and spread to Oahu later
tonight. AIRMET Sierra is posted for tempo mountain obscurations
above 2500 feet along windward sides of Maui and Molokai. This
AIRMET will likely be needed for windward Oahu later tonight, and
possibly Kauai early Friday morning. Prevailing VFR conditions
expected for Big Island.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure far northeast of the Hawaiian waters will drive
moderate to locally strong trade winds through Friday. As such,
the Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the typical windy waters
around Maui County and Big Island through Friday afternoon.
Trades will ease slightly later this weekend into early next week
as the high moves further away to the north.

The recent small, long period south swell will continue its
decline through tomorrow. Two more small, long period south
swells are scheduled to arrive Friday night into Saturday and
Sunday night into Monday. The first of these swells will likely
only lead to a minor bump in surf, while the second is expected
to be a little more noticeable. However, south-facing shore surf
will likely remain below the summer average through the next
several days.

East-facing shore surf will remain rough and choppy as moderate
to locally strong trades blow through Friday, then drop a notch as
the trades ease slightly later this weekend into early next week.
A very small northwest swell originating behind a front hanging up
far northwest of the islands is expected to arrive early next
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through Friday,
then weaken slightly over the weekend and into next week.
Afternoon relative humidity remains near summertime normals,
with fairly typical fire weather conditions expected.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ahue
AVIATION...Foster
MARINE...Farris
FIRE WEATHER...Ahue