352
FXHW60 PHFO 250128
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
328 PM HST Thu Jul 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate trade winds will ease slightly over the next couple of
days then restrengthen Tuesday or Wednesday. Limited shower
activity will be focused over windward areas into Saturday, and
with the exception a few showers on the South Kona slopes each
afternoon, leeward areas will be mostly dry. An increase in
mainly windward and mauka rainfall is possible late Saturday into
Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Stable and rather dry trade wind weather remains in place.
Moderate to locally breezy trades are down slightly from the past
couple of days as troughing well northwest and northeast of the
islands has led to the weakening of the local pressure gradient.
Expect trades to drop a notch Friday and Saturday as the gradient
further relaxes. Rainfall has been scant during the past 24 hours
and confined to windward slopes, along with a few showers over the
South Kona slopes of the Big Island. With a ridge aloft holding
near the state and little organized moisture noted in the trade
wind flow, expect the rather dry conditions to persist into
Saturday.

Trade winds will ease to gentle to moderate strength this weekend,
and shower chances will increase as a weak surface trough moves
near or over the islands. The trough, currently sitting about 500
miles east of Hilo, will be dissipating as it reaches the islands,
but its shallow associated moisture increase humidity and may
fuel higher chances for mainly windward showers on the Big Island
and Maui County late Saturday and Sunday, moving to Oahu and
Kauai Sunday and Monday.

Guidance continues to show strengthening trade winds Tuesday or
Wednesday. Uncertainty in the location and timing of developing
disturbances in the deep tropics south of Hawaii is a primary
source of decreased forecast confidence. That said, breezy and
drier trade wind weather is likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will gradually decrease
this afternoon and tonight with mainly VFR conditions across the
state. For tonight, we could see some isolated showers over
windward and mountain areas with brief mountain obscurations.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate low level turbulence over
and lee of island mountains. As the winds decrease later this
afternoon, AIRMET Tango will likely be cancelled.

&&

.MARINE...
A high pressure ridge north of the islands has started to
gradually weaken today, now producing moderate to fresh trades.
Thus, the Small Craft Advisory for the typical windy waters
around Maui County and Big Island has been cancelled. The ridge
will continue to weaken Friday, easing wind speeds into the gentle
to fresh over the weekend. Moderate to strong trades are expected
to return during the first half of next week as the ridge
strengthens northeast of the state and a tropical disturbance
tracks well south of the state.

Pulses of background long period south and southwest swells will
keep surf above flat levels along south and west facing shores
through the weekend. Back to back gale force lows east of New
Zealand are expected to send a series of small, long period south
swells that could begin to fill in late Tuesday and produce above
average surf along south facing shores through the second half of
next week. In addition, a couple of disturbances tracking well
south of the state from east to west Sunday into next week may
also send small, short to medium period south to southeast swells,
keeping south facing shores elevated.

Choppy rough surf along south and east facing shores of the Big
Island have been observed in part due to active ITCZ southeast of
the state and a small localized area of strong trades upstream of
the state due to a trough. Elsewhere east shore surf along east
facing shores should trend down into the weekend as winds locally
and upstream ease.

Afternoon water levels are still running about half a foot higher
around Maui County and the Big Island during the afternoon peak
high tide cycle. This could continue to cause minor flooding for
shorelines and low-lying coastal areas mainly around Maui County
and the Big Island. The Coastal Flood Statement has been extended
through Friday afternoon where waters level will still remain
slightly above or near minor flooding thresholds. Water levels
during peak high tide cycle should ease below thresholds by the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and stable conditions will persist into Saturday, but
locally breezy trade winds will ease slightly on Friday and
Saturday. A shallow area of moisture moving in from the east
should bring an increase in humidity late Saturday into Monday,
further decreasing fire weather concerns. Trade winds are expected
to restrengthen Tuesday or Wednesday, and developing dry
conditions may bring elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wroe
AVIATION...Kino
MARINE...Almanza
FIRE WEATHER...Wroe