584
FXHW60 PHFO 090131
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
331 PM HST Sun Jun 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light to moderate trade winds trade winds will shift out of the
east to east-southeast Monday and Tuesday as a surface trough
develops several hundred miles northwest of Kauai. Pockets of
moisture moving along the trade wind flow will focus showers over
typical windward slopes, while daytime sea breezes bring some
chances for leeward showers on Monday and Tuesday afternoon.
Trade winds will gradually strengthen Wednesday through Friday
and likely be breezy next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A rather stable, light to moderate trade wind flow remains in
place this afternoon. A surface trough lies between Hawaii and
somewhat strong high pressure farther north, causing the local
pressure gradient and resulting trade winds to weaker than usual,
and a mid-level ridge sitting over the islands is maintaining
stable conditions with an inversion based near 7,000 ft. A narrow
slot of reduced moisture is producing minimal rainfall along
windward areas this afternoon, and aside from scattered showers
over the Kona slopes of the Big Island and Ulupalakua area of
Upcountry Maui, leeward areas are dry. Shower activity over
leeward Maui will dissipate quickly around sundown and will
diminish overnight on the Big Island. Shower activity over
windward areas will remain light, with the exception of a
possible uptick near Kauai and Oahu near sunrise.

Subtle changes are expected Monday and Tuesday. A surface trough
will develop roughly 600 miles northwest of Kauai and cause local
trade winds to veer out of the east to east-southeast, possibly
causing afternoon leeward sea breezes to be more extensive on
Kauai and Oahu. The inversion will weaken over these islands as
well, suggesting higher chances for afternoon showers over
leeward terrain.

Trade winds will strengthen and shift back to a more typical
direction Wednesday through Thursday as low pressure to the
northwest fills and surface high pressure builds far northeast of
Hawaii. A stable, moderate to locally breezy trade wind flow will
bring typical rainfall to mainly windward areas. Breezy trades are
favored for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
A hybrid sea breeze and light to moderate trade wind pattern will
continue through tonight, with afternoon sea breezes giving way to
land breezes tonight along terrain-sheltered western slopes. Trade
wind speeds will gradually increase through the day Monday, becoming
locally breezy over the eastern half of the island chain by Monday
night. Relatively dry conditions will continue, with brief passing
showers possible over windward and mountain areas, favoring the
overnight through early morning hours. VFR conditions will prevail.
No AIRMETs are in effect, nor expected through 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...
A high pressure ridge will remain far north of Hawaii over the
next several of days, then set up northeast of the state towards
the end of the week. A trough developing northwest of the state
will briefly cause the trade winds to veer toward the east-
southeast on Monday. As the trough moves away, trades will
gradually strengthen Tuesday into Wednesday with moderate to
locally strong trade winds returning by the middle of the week.
Small Craft Advisory could return to the typical windy areas
around Maui County and the Big Island as early as Tuesday or
Wednesday. As the ridge strengthens, widespread fresh to strong
trade winds are possible this weekend.

The current south-southwest (200 degree) swell peaked last night
into this morning and will continue to slowly decline through the
middle of the week. A small south-southwest swell is possible
Friday into the weekend.

Surf along east facing shores will remain moderate as the short-
period northeast swell holds through Monday. Trade winds will
gradually strengthen throughout the week, which will bring an
increase of rough and choppy waves towards the second half of the
week. Windswell will continue to increase over the weekend due to
strong trade winds.

A trough located north of the state could produce small short-
period energy out of the north Tuesday through the middle of the
week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wroe
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...Kino