318 FXHW60 PHFO 101305 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 305 AM HST Tue Jun 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A trough to the west and a ridge to the northeast will drive moderate east-southeast winds through today, then strengthen through the end of the week. Trade winds will focus clouds and a few showers across windward and mauka areas. && .DISCUSSION... Currently, this morning looking at radar a few showers are scattered across the island chain. A few plumes are ongoing to the south and west of the islands but these shouldn`t be a long term feature. Satellite shows typical easterly trade clouds with some high level cirrus streaming in from a decaying system far to the southwest. A surface trough to the west and a ridge to the northeast will drive moderate east-northeast winds across the state today. Clouds and scattered showers will impact windward and mauka areas. A hybrid sea breeze pattern is possible along western slopes with some clouds developing. Stable, zonal flow aloft will keep showers relatively light this week. The aforementioned trough will gradually weaken Wednesday through Friday with high pressure filling in north of the area. Trade winds across the islands will strengthen around midweek as the trough weakens. Trades will increase even further this weekend. Any showers and isolated pockets of rain should follow typical trends for this time of year with more showers in the overnight and early morning hours. With the increase in trades expected showers to favor windward and mauka locations across the chain as we head through this weekend. && .AVIATION... Light to moderate trades over the island chain today. A hybrid sea breeze pattern should develop clouds and a few SHRA over and along terrain. Downstream of each island, weak convergence will also bring the potential for more SHRA and low cigs. Windward and mauka low cigs and SHRA are also possible but should be brief. MVFR conds possible in heavier SHRA otherwise VFR prevails AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for all windward locations of all islands. Conds should improve into the morning hours. && .MARINE... High pressure far north northeast of the state will change very little over the next several days. Thus, expect moderate to locally strong trades to persist. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the typical windy areas around Maui County and the Big Island through Wednesday morning, but will likely need to be extended in time. Trade winds will become fresh to strong this weekend as a ridge north of Hawaii strengthens. The current south-southwest (200 degrees) swell will decline through Wednesday, leaving only tiny background swell energy in its wake. A small, moderate- period, south swell may pass through the waters by late this weekend, which could give a small bump up to south shore surf. Moderate trades will continue to generate choppy conditions through this weekend. Pulses of small short-period energy out of the north over the next several days will keep the north shore surf from going completely flat. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Walsh AVIATION...Walsh MARINE...Thomas