773
FXUS62 KTAE 232311
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
611 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

Ridging continues to dominate the pattern through the near
term portion of the forecast keeping conditions benign and festively
chilly as a wedge of cold air meanders over the forecast area. Warm
air via easterly flow will continue to spread over the region which
may serve to create some isentropic lift later this evening over our
south-central GA counties leading to isolated weak showers along the
I-75 corridor. Otherwise, we can expect to remain quite dry for the
remainder of this evening through tomorrow. Low temperatures tonight
will generally range from the upper 30s to low 40s for areas west of
the Flint River. Areas east can expect lows ranging from the low to
mid 40s, increasing with southeastern extent. Tomorrow will be
partly cloudy as moisture from the easterly flow creates some low to
mid level stratus across the region with high temperatures warming
somewhat into the low to mid 60s areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 304 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

Merry Christmas/Happy Hanukkah! Our present to you is a sky full of
clouds and rain.

The clouds will be present most of the period with the rain
slated to arrive after sunset on Christmas. Temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 60s to near 70 across the region ahead
of the rain on Christmas day. Christmas Eve will be near normal with
lows in the lower to middle 40s before rebounding into the upper 40s
to lower 50s Christmas night.

A subtle H5 ridge builds over the southeastern US on Christmas Day
ahead of an H5 shortwave traversing the southern Plains and Deep
South. This shortwave is forecast to slowly deamplify Wednesday
evening as it heads for the Ohio Valley, but not before sending a
slug of rain along the Gulf Coast Christmas Day into Christmas
night. This batch of rain runs into a wall of drier air over our
region, so it will be in a weakening state as it passes overhead
Wednesday night. Rainfall totals are generally expected to be around
0.10" Wednesday night with a low chance (10% to 20%) of 0.25" of
rain across southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. In other
words, not much rain is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

Some of the rain from Christmas night carries over into Thursday
morning, but the bulk of it should be out of here by Thursday
afternoon. Another batch of rain attempts to move through this
weekend thanks to another H5 shortwave passing well north of the
region. Ensemble guidance suggests this is the best chance (20% to
30%) at areas in southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle
picking up more than 1" of rain. We`re focused on that as much of
the region has only received 5% to 35% of their normal rainfall
amounts in the past 30 days. In fact, a number of our sites are
experiencing either their driest or second driest Decembers on
record thus far, so we need the rain.

Easterly to southeasterly winds prevail through the period and leads
to warmer than normal temperatures in the final weekend of the year.
Temperatures warm from near 70 THursday afternoon to the lower to
middle 70s this weekend. Overnight lows will follow a similar trend
as they go from the upper 40s to middle 50s Thursday night to the
upper 50s to near 60 Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

TAFs should remain generally VFR overnight. However, there is at
least some possibility of high MVFR cigs from time to time as
stratus moves from south to north. The most likely terminals for
this to occur would be ABY/TLH/VLD with lesser probs DHN/ECP. Will
generally erode this lower deck on Tuesday with mainly high
clouds prevailing through the end of the period. Winds will be
from the northeast at 5-8 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

Moderate northeast breezes continue through Tuesday night, as a
wedge of high pressure persists over the Mid-Atlantic. Winds turn
more easterly for the second half of the week as the high expands
across the western Atlantic.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

A wedge of cool air and high pressure are expected to persist
through midweek with easterly breezes continuing as a result. This
will also serve to keep mixing heights lower over the area yielding
areawide low dispersions tomorrow afternoon. Dispersions are
expected to slightly improve Wednesday, though they will still
remain poor. Lastly, easterly flow will continue to moisten the
airmass over the tri-state area featuring gradual improvements to
MinRH each afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 304 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

There are no flooding concerns over the next several days. The
chances of any one location receiving more than 1" over the next 7
days is 10% to 30% with the higher probabilities over southeastern
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   42  64  44  67 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   43  65  47  69 /   0   0   0  10
Dothan        37  63  40  64 /   0   0   0  10
Albany        37  62  37  64 /  20   0   0   0
Valdosta      40  64  42  67 /  10   0   0   0
Cross City    42  68  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  46  62  51  65 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...Reese