425
FXUS62 KTAE 142342
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
642 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 123 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

A cold front is moving through the area this afternoon with only
light showers along and ahead of the front. Given the decreasing
coverage of showers, have lowered rain chances for the rest of this
afternoon into the evening to be at most 30 percent. Behind the
front, cooler air will arrive on northwesterly winds. Temperatures
tonight will be in the lower to middle 50s for most of the area with
upper 40s in our far northwest areas. This is still about 3 to 6
degrees above average for mid-November. Mainly sunny skies are
expected on Friday as high pressure builds in with highs in the
upper 60s to middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Mid-level ridging overhead and east to southeast flow at the
surface will prevail through early next week. This will kick off a
gradual warming and moistening trend in the wake of today`s cold
front. Highs will start in the low to mid 70s Saturday before
warming to the mid 70s to low 80s by Monday. Lows will warm from
the mid 40s to low 50s Friday night to the low to mid 60s Tuesday
night. Tuesday into Wednesday a very strong trough is forecast to
swing eastward across the CONUS, pushing a decently strong cold
front into the region. This system will bring our next chance for
meaningful rainfall and knock temperatures back down into the mid
60s to low 70s for highs and the 40s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

A cold front is now moving past the TLH and ABY terminals and will
get past VLD in the next 2 hours or so. The air mass is very moist
in advance of the front. Along the front, a localized mix of moist
pre-frontal air and cooler post-frontal air could briefly bring
2-5SM BR to ABY, TLH, and VLD. Behind the front, drier air is
filtering in.

There is a lot of post-frontal stratus further north in Georgia,
with many sites such as MCN and ATL reporting cigs below 1,000
feet. These clouds will try to push south overnight. Guidance is
giving mixed signals on how widespread the clouds will be late
tonight and Friday morning, so have hedged by showing scattered
stratus or stratocumulus clouds around sunrise. Where confidence
is highest at ABY, have shown BKN. A couple hours after sunrise,
drier air should readily wipe out any thin cloud layers. So Friday
afternoon will feature clear blue skies and northerly breezes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 123 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Winds clock around to the north behind the front this evening and
tonight, with another period fresh breezes tonight and Friday
morning. High pressure settling in north of the waters will clock
winds around to the east this weekend with a return to fair
boating conditions.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sara, located over the Western Caribbean Sea. It`s expected
to remain a tropical storm and move over the Yucatan Peninsula
early next week. The track of the system remains uncertain, and
it`s too soon to determine what impacts it could bring to the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. For now, fair boating conditions are
expected through Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 123 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

A cold front will exit the area later tonight with transport winds
becoming northerly around 10 to 15 mph Friday. This will lead to
good dispersions Friday afternoon across the area. Winds become
lighter out of the northeast over the weekend, causing dispersions
to drop to fair. Min RH values will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s
each afternoon. Fire weather concerns remain low.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 123 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

No meaningful rainfall is expected until around midweek next week
when a cold front moves through the area. Area rivers are in good
shape, and no flooding is forecast.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   53  71  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   54  73  53  75 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        50  71  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        50  69  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      53  70  48  73 /  20   0   0   0
Cross City    56  74  51  76 /  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  57  73  57  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield