088
FXUS62 KTAE 121901
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
301 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Satellite-derived PW imagery shows an area of very moist air from
the Florida Keys into the Southeast Gulf and off the SW FL coast,
characterized by PW values of 2-2.2 inches. The 12z Key West
balloon sounding confirmed this by observing a 2.1-inch PW. In
the southerly flow rounding the west end of the Atlantic
subtropical ridge, this slug of moisture will spread northward
across our area on Friday, Friday night, and Saturday, before
departing on Saturday evening. Large-scale lift could be slightly
enhanced as the upper trough over Texas slowly lifts northeast
across the Mid-South and Mid-Mississippi Valley regions.
Ultimately, the pool of rich moisture will enhance convective
coverage through Saturday. Such a richly moist air mass can
contribute to torrential rainfall rates beneath the core of
thunderstorms. Ensemble-based guidance such as the HREF does not
point to abnormally high probabilities of rainfall exceeding flash
flood guidance, but any training or backbuilding cells in this
environment could bring a quick and localized 4-6 inches of rain,
which would be enough for isolated flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

On Sunday, we will lose any large-scale lift from the Mid-South
shortwave, as it deamplifies and exits east through the Ohio
Valley. The air mass will still be very moist as high Pwats and
mid-level moisture linger near the back edge of the incoming slug.

From Monday through Wednesday, the subtropical ridge axis will try
to sharpen near our latitude and strengthen along its western
periphery closer to Florida. Around the southern periphery of the
climatological and dominant ridge, dry mid-level air that is
currently north and northeast of Puerto Rico will start to filter
in across the region. By Wednesday, PW values will only be in the
1.6-1.7 inch range. This is still enough to support deep, moist
convection, but larger-scale subsidence under the ridge will keep
convection confined to more favorable seabreeze front locations.

With fewer thunderstorms to cool the atmosphere and strengthening
high pressure aloft, temperatures will edge upward next week. By
next Thursday, inland high temperatures in the mid 90s will be
common.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Summertime pattern across the terminals with the potential for
TSRA until around 00Z. This may lead to brief MVFR restrictions
with a low probability of IFR, especially DHN and VLD as shown
in TEMPO groups. Northward extent of TSRA a lower probability at
ABY, and mainly VCTS at ECP and TLH as the seabreeze lifts north,
although a quick amendment may be needed at the aforementioned
sites if a TSRA moves over the terminals. On Friday, stronger low
to mid-level southerly flow should initiate TSRA earlier in the
vicinity of ECP and TLH with a PROB30 group for TSRA; uncertainty
in timing, but have started with 14Z for now at both terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Gentle to sometimes moderate southeast breezes will prevail
through Saturday, while the subtropical Atlantic ridge axis
resides north of the waters. The ridge will migrate south across
the waters on Sunday, then persist across the Florida Peninsula
and the eastern Gulf on Monday and Tuesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will be the main threats to mariners, including
strong wind gusts, lightning and waterspouts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

A seasonably hot, moist and unstable air mass will be in place
through the middle of next week, with daily chances of showers
and thunderstorms. So the main fire weather concerns will be
thundertorm-related, specifically lightning along with erratic and
gusty winds near storms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Hydrology concerns over the next 7 days will consist of localized
nuisance runoff issues and isolated flash flooding.

A typical pattern of summer thunderstorms will persist for the next
week. Beneath the core of stronger thunderstorms, intense rainfall
rates have potential for localized runoff issues, especially in
urban and poor drainage areas. With torrential rain rates, storms
that linger over the same area for too long would bring isolated
flash flooding. Lastly, the air mass will be moistest on Friday and
Saturday, so rain rates and flash flood potential will peak then.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  89  74  87 /  30  70  30  90
Panama City   76  88  77  88 /  40  60  60  80
Dothan        72  89  73  87 /  40  80  30  80
Albany        72  89  72  87 /  60  70  40  80
Valdosta      72  89  74  89 /  50  80  30  80
Cross City    71  90  72  89 /  50  50  40  80
Apalachicola  78  86  77  85 /  50  70  60  90

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner