891 FXUS62 KFFC 121101 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 701 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Key Messages: - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today with a near zero severe thunderstorm threat. - Increasing moisture/humidity with widespread showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Today will mark the start of a transition to a wetter and more humid pattern that will last through the weekend. The primary drivers of this pattern will be a slow-moving upper level low over the southern Plains and a sprawling surface high over the western Atlantic. In response, low- to mid-level winds will turn southerly today and pump moisture into the area, with PWAT values rising to 1.82.1. This surge in moisture will support scattered showers on its own, but when combined with daytime heating and instability (10001500 J/kg MUCAPE), conditions will support numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. While the severe threat is near zero due to weak wind shear, a few strong storms with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain are still possible. A localized flooding threat could materialize if an area receives multiple rounds of showers and storms in a short period. Tomorrow, the upper-level low/trough will lift northeast over the Ozarks, reinforcing the south-southwest flow and the surge in moisture across Georgia. This will support even higher chances for showers and thunderstorms, which will become widespread during the afternoon and evening. Again, a few strong storms are possible with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain. There is also some potential for the environment to support a severe thunderstorm or two, primarily across northwest Georgia, where effective wind shear could increase to 2025 kt and instability (MUCAPE) could reach 15002000 J/kg. With PWAT values rising into the 1.92.2 range, there is again potential for localized flooding in areas that experience repeated rounds of showers and storms. Conditions will be warm and muggy, with high temps ranging from the mid 80s in north Georgia to the upper 80s to low 90s in central Georgia. Overnight lows will only fall to around 70. Culver && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Key Messages: - Enhanced moisture will continue across the region under the influence of southerly flow. - Diurnally driven rain chances expected through the extended period. - High temperatures expected near seasonal norms with with lows remaining 3-7 deg above. No major changes made to the extended period. By Fri night the Bermuda like surface ridge centered over the western Atlantic will have weakened a bit and pulled away slightly from the SC/GA/FL coast. With the this ridge weakening, very good gulf moisture streams around the ridge putting GA in good moist southerly flow. This ridge stays fairly stationary through the weekend keeping GA in a very wet pattern. By Mon, the ridge slides a bit further south allowing the over all flow to become a bit more westerly. This will let shortwaves over the Mid MS river valley to move in across the area Mon and Tues. As such, an active weather pattern is forecast to persist into next week, with PoPs around 65-85% each afternoon. PWs stay in the 1.5" to 2.5" range through the extended periods. Instability indices will also be diurnally driven with capes getting up into the 500-1500J/Kg range everyday. Because of the continued precip chances daytime highs will be mainly in the 80s to near 90 each day with night time lows in the 60s to near 70. 01 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 734 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Primarily low VFR to brief MVFR SCT-BKN CIGs through the period. Possible MVFR VIS in BR through 14Z for northern TAF sites. Best chances for -TSRA today will come between 18-24Z areawide, but may extend until midnight. Light and variable winds pick up out of the SE at 5-7kts by 14-15Z, before becoming light and variable again after 02Z. Could see a switch to SSW winds for a few hours at ATL this evening but confidence on that is low. MVFR to IFR CIGs or worse are likely after 08Z on Friday, improving by 15Z. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium confidence on CIGs and TSRA. High confidence all other elements. Culver && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 86 69 85 70 / 80 70 80 60 Atlanta 85 71 85 71 / 70 50 70 50 Blairsville 80 64 80 65 / 80 50 90 60 Cartersville 85 69 86 70 / 70 40 80 50 Columbus 90 71 89 71 / 70 40 80 30 Gainesville 83 69 83 70 / 80 60 80 60 Macon 89 70 88 71 / 70 60 80 40 Rome 85 69 86 70 / 70 50 80 50 Peachtree City 87 69 86 70 / 70 50 70 40 Vidalia 91 72 89 73 / 80 60 90 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...Culver