953 FXUS62 KFFC 091758 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 158 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 - Scattered thunderstorms are expected in north and central Georgia today, with the highest severe weather threat expected between 3 PM and 11 PM. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday over central Georgia, but no severe weather threat. A relatively quiet morning to start the work week across north and central Georgia, with some patchy fog around as well as a few showers and weak thunderstorms. Under partly to mostly sunny skies, daytime heating will lead to sufficient instability (MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg) for increasing pop-up shower and thunderstorm activity by early this afternoon. While a few of these storms could be strong, the start of the severe thunderstorm threat will generally hold off until the 3-4 PM timeframe, and then last throughout the evening hours. This threat will be driven by a line/complex of thunderstorms that is expected to push into north and central GA by late afternoon and evening. There is inherent uncertainty in the timing and strength of this complex of storms, and that uncertainty will only be enhanced by how much convective activity develops over our area this morning and early afternoon. If convective activity is relatively muted ahead of the line of storms, that would create a more favorable environment and increase our severe threat. If we see a lot of shower and thunderstorm activity ahead of the line, it might create a large enough cold pool to weaken it as it moves in. Regardless of how the details play out, the primary severe weather threat would be damaging wind gusts, though quarter size hail and a brief spinup tornado are also possible, especially if the line is strong as it pushes through the area. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for all of north and central Georgia. One other thing we will be watching for today, given the potential for multiple rounds of convection and wind profiles supporting training convection, is a localized flash flood threat. While the overall risk for this is relatively low, it is worth mentioning, especially if the training convection were to occur over urban areas. After the line of storms moves through, a weak frontal boundary will begin to push into north Georgia late tonight into Tuesday morning. This will allow some drier air to filter in over the area, and reduce shower and thunderstorm chances for the day, especially in north Georgia. The drier air will not quite make it to central Georgia, creating a boundary for shower and thunderstorm activity to form along as warm and humid air sits to the south. While scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and early evening across this area (Columbus to Macon and east), the severe threat is low. Still, storms could produce gusty winds and frequent lightning. Culver && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Key Messages: - A stalled frontal boundary over Central GA will be the focus showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the work week. Lower rain chances over North GA. - Increasing rain chances areawide heading into the weekend as moisture returns across the Southeast. Isolated storms over Central GA may still be ongoing and/or coming to an end at the start of the long term period (Tuesday Night). Showers and storms in the vicinity and south of the stalled frontal boundary situated over Central GA will be the theme through Wednesday. Exactly where the boundary stalls remains less certain. Wherever it sets up, I suspect there will be a sharp cut off with chances for storms notably decreasing with northward extent. Latest global ensembles have the boundary stalling in the vicinity of Columbus to Macon to Sandersville. Can`t rule out a rogue strong or severe storm during this period given proximity to the baroclinic boundary and plenty of moisture in place. Though shear will be lacking. The primary hazard would be downburst winds. By Thursday, southerly flow will begin advecting more moisture to the forecast area resulting in more widely scattered shower and thunderstorm chances. Between Friday and Saturday, another mid- level disturbance moving quickly through the Ohio Valley will further enhance moisture return increasing shower and thunderstorm chances heading into the weekend. This looks to be the trend through the weekend with a few disturbances moving through the mid-level flow. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated, it is possible that a storm or two could take advantage of the moist and unstable environment and produce severe winds and/or some small hail. Widespread flooding is also not expected to be an issue this week but redevelopment over areas that have already experienced periods of heavy rainfall may cause isolated instances of flash and/or nuisance flooding. As a reminder, any storms that form will be capable of cloud-to-ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall, so be sure to monitor the forecast, especially if you have outdoor activities planned or are traveling in some capacity. Forecast daytime temperatures start off in the mid 80s (70s in the northeast GA mountains) and increase a degree or two each day until we`re back in the 80s to near 90 (mid 70s to low 80s in the northeast GA mountains) by the end of the work week. Overnight lows remain mild and pleasant with forecast values in the upper 50s in the mountains to low 70s across south-central GA. 07 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 152 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Challenging forecast over next few hours for metro TAF sites. Rainfall across AL has dissipated, meaning SHRA chances through 00Z are lowered, but TSRA chances starting around 00Z have increased a bit. Questions remain on if day time heating can allow for thunderstorm development, however. Higher confidence at CSG/MCN for TSRA tonight. Otherwise, winds are W to WSW at 8-12 kts, with some gustier winds into MCN and CSG approaching 20 kts. Cigs have also dissipated this afternoon into a developing cu field. MVFR to IFR cigs expected area wide tonight. Some possibility of fog development and lowered vsby. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium-low on convective forecast this evening. Medium high on cigs/vsbys tomorrow morning. Lusk && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 85 67 85 63 / 60 60 20 10 Atlanta 83 68 84 65 / 50 70 20 10 Blairsville 81 61 79 56 / 50 60 10 0 Cartersville 85 66 84 61 / 60 50 10 0 Columbus 85 68 86 67 / 70 70 50 20 Gainesville 85 67 83 63 / 60 60 10 0 Macon 85 68 86 66 / 70 70 60 30 Rome 85 66 85 62 / 60 50 10 0 Peachtree City 83 66 84 63 / 60 70 30 10 Vidalia 87 71 87 71 / 70 70 60 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...Lusk