753
FXUS62 KCHS 150102
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
802 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push offshore this evening. High pressure
will then return and prevail into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Tonight: Aloft, an upper low will pivot across the Mid-Atlantic
States and shift offshore while a large ridge expands across the
Central United States. At the sfc, a cold front will quickly press
east across the local area this evening, likely shifting offshore
across all areas by around midnight. With fropa, showers are likely
to end with a vast amount of dry air already depicted on water vapor
imagery and in the low-mid levels on the latest 00Z CHS sounding.
Given the setup, expect all locations to be dry by around midnight
with winds becoming northwesterly during the next few hours and
persisting through the night. The main issue will be some lingering
low-lvl stratus for a portion of the night, as currently depicted on
latest satellite imagery. Although there could be some tendency for
vsby reductions through midnight, cold air advection in wake of the
front and 1000 mb geostrophic flow around 30 kt indicates the threat
for fog to remain low. Low temps should range in the mid-upper 40s
inland to lower 50s closer to the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Closed mid level low will be traversing across the mid Atlantic
region at the start of the period along with a pocket of cool-ish
air air skirting southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina.
Behind the trough, building upper level ridge axis and attending
surface high pressure will be moving through the central/southern
Plains on Friday before building into the eastern/southeastern CONUS
through the weekend. In the wake of the system moving through the
region today, there may be some lingering cloud cover around early
Friday. But clearing skies are anticipated through the morning hours
leaving mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. Forecast soundings
suggest high temperatures on Friday will range from the middle to
upper 60s...a few ticks below normal. Lows Friday night will be
dipping into the 40s most areas away from the coast with lower to
middle 40s anticipated well inland.

Weekend weather: Aforementioned upper level ridging/surface high
pressure dominates the region through the weekend leading to rain-
free weather. Still cool-ish Saturday with highs in the upper 60s to
around 70 but back into the lower 70s by Sunday. Saturday
night/Sunday morning low temperatures will probably be the coldest
through the entire forecast period with lows in the upper 30s well
inland to middle 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level ridging and surface high pressure continues to dominate
through at least Monday and probably the daylight hours Tuesday as
well. The warming trend to back above normal continues with daytime
highs in the middle 70s Monday and middle 70s to near 80 by Tuesday.

Meanwhile, closed upper level trough is forecast to develop across
the Central Plains around midweek and further deepen across the
eastern/southeastern CONUS during the latter half of next week. As
this occurs, remnant low from TS Sara might get picked up by the
trough and work its way up the southeast coast during the
Wednesday/Thursday timeframe, although forecast confidence is fairly
low in that scenario panning out (still have to see just what
happens with TS Sara over the next few days). Either way, a period
of unsettled weather with the deepening trough is anticipated around
midweek and we could get a shot of fairly cool air for the latter
half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHS/JZI: MVFR cigs/vsbys are possible through 01/02Z tonight, but
conditions are expected to trend to prevailing IFR cigs by 03Z-04Z
and persist through about 07Z at CHS and 10Z at JZI. Conditions will
trend to MVFR for a few hours thereafter, then quickly become VFR by
around 14Z Friday. Gusty northerly winds up to 15-20 kt will be
common late Friday morning into Friday mid-late afternoon.

SAV: Tempo IFR cigs should arrive between 03Z-05Z this evening, then
prevail during the bulk of the night. Expect conditions to start to
improve back to MVFR within a few hours of daybreak, then quickly
become VFR by around 14Z Friday. Gusty northerly winds between 15-20
kt will be common late Friday morning into Friday mid-late
afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A cold front will sweep off the coast this evening with
cold air advection developing in its wake. This will result in
another wind surge overnight as cool/dry air promotes low-lvl mixing
into 1000 mb geostrophic winds around 30-35 kt. Northwest winds are
expected to increase to 20-25 kt across most local waters with even
a few gusts up to 30 kt across outer Georgia waters. Seas will also
build overnight, generally peaking between 3-5 ft across nearshore
waters and 4-6 ft across offshore Georgia waters. Given the setup, a
Small Craft Advisory is in effect across outer Georgia waters for
ongoing trends, followed by additional Small Craft Advisories
starting at various times this evening across nearshore waters (from
north to south in time). Conditions across the Charleston Harbor
should fall short of Small Craft Advisory level conditions, but
a few gusts up to 20-25 kt remain possible later tonight near
the harbor entrance.

Friday through Monday: Surface high pressure will build across the
eastern/southeastern U.S. through the weekend before shifting
offshore early next week. NW to N winds and seas will be elevated
Friday into Saturday, then trend lower Saturday night onward. Small
Craft Advisories will remain in effect for the Georgia and South
Carolina nearshore waters through Friday morning before gradually
expiring by Friday evening. Small Craft Advisory for the GA waters
beyond 20 nm will remain in effect through Saturday evening owing to
elevated seas. More tranquil conditions are expected Sunday through
Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated tide levels will continue Friday and through the
weekend along the entire southeast South Carolina and southeast
Georgia coast with the highest tide levels occurring with the
morning high tides. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is
anticipated although there is a risk for major coastal flood
levels with the Saturday morning high tide for Charleston and
Coastal Colleton Counties.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST Friday for AMZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for AMZ352.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM EST Friday
     for AMZ354.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...Adam
AVIATION...Adam/DPB
MARINE...Adam/DPB