802 FXUS62 KCHS 121924 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 324 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A series of upper level disturbances will affect the area through the weekend. Meanwhile, high pressure will expand over the western Atlantic and persist through next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Through Sunset: Convection is persisting across our area, especially along and near the inland moving sea breeze. SPC Mesoscale Analysis still indicates minimal bulk shear and effective shear 20-25 kt. DCAPE values are generally less than 500 J/kg, while MLCAPE is in the 2,000-2,500 J/kg range. With all of this in mind, the overall severe threat is low. But we could still have a strong to marginally severe storm where boundary interactions can work to enhance updrafts. Storm motion remains very slow, which means means there will be a threat of locally heavy rainfall and possibly a few instances of minor flooding. Tonight: The mid-levels will consist of us being on the western periphery of sub-tropical ridging. At the surface, High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic, with it`s periphery extending into our area. Any remaining convection should dissipate after sunset, followed by a dry overnight for land areas. Lows will be mild, mainly in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... A somewhat more active weather pattern will continue through Sunday across the Southeast. While the area will be on the western side of Atlantic high pressure, the upper ridge axis will be far enough offshore to allow numerous shortwaves to ripple through the area, providing an additional focus for convection. The greatest coverage will be during daytime hours when greater instability exists, however the airmass should maintain enough theta-e to support a few showers or tstms through the overnight hours as well. The convective parameters do not look particularly impressive so we don`t expect a widespread threat for severe weather. Nevertheless, given the season, we can never completely rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm with damaging winds and/or large hail. Highs will slowly warm each day with values in the low 90s in spots by Sunday. Heat indices should remain below advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The upper ridge axis is expected to shift west early next week with a deep layered ridge building over the Southeast. Precipitation coverage is expected to move back to a more typical summertime pattern with mainly scattered afternoon/evening showers and tstms. High temps are expected to climb toward the middle of next week, with heat indices pushing well above 100 each afternoon. We could need Heat Advisories for portions of the SC Lowcountry and southeast GA Tuesday through Thursday where heat indices rise above 108 degrees. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 1930Z Update: Convection is ongoing along and near the sea breeze this afternoon. As it gradually moves inland for the next few hours, there could be very brief impacts to the three TAF sites. But the probabilities will lessen as the convection moves further inland. Convection decreases in the evening, with the overnight expected to be dry. Another round of sea breeze convection is expected Friday morning and afternoon. Extended Aviation Forecast: Brief flight restrictions are possible in showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Tonight: Atlantic High pressure will yield SE winds this evening, veering to the S overnight. Sustained winds should be 5-15 kt. Though, there could be higher gusts along the land/sea interface. Seas should average 2-3 ft. Friday through Wednesday: Conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...JRL MARINE...JRL