968 FXUS62 KFFC 081128 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 728 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 223 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Key Messages: - A few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop late this morning through the afternoon primarily across central Georgia, with damaging winds being the main threat. - Potential for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms on Monday across north and central Georgia, with damaging winds again being the main threat. Today will start off with yet another warm and muggy morning across much of north and central Georgia. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing across NW Georgia but have remained fairly tame as they are moving through the cold pool left in the wake of yesterday`s storms. Looking further upstream, a complex of strong to severe storms ongoing across central AL may be our first concern of the day if it manages to stay together as it moves into central GA later on this morning. Current thinking is that this would track into areas along and south of a line from LaGrange to Macon. Depending on how fast the complex of storms moves through, additional strong to marginally severe thunderstorms may develop early this afternoon in east-central Georgia where sufficient instability would be with diurnal heating. The primary concern with all storms today would be damaging wind gusts. Areas to the north of where that line of storms tracks (most of North GA) may see a few brief showers or weak thunderstorms today but will otherwise be rain-free. The rinse and repeat pattern continues as another round of thunderstorms and severe weather threat will be possible across the area on Monday. Model guidance has quite a bit of variance on details, but in general the thinking is that a shortwave and associated complex of strong thunderstorms developing over the Southern Plains late tonight will push across the Deep South during the day on Monday. This system would potentially move into Georgia during the afternoon hours, coinciding with peak heating and diurnal instability. The Storm Prediction Center has all of north and central Georgia in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5), with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts, though hail up to quarter size and a brief spin up tornado would also be possible. Depending on when and where that initial line of storms moves through, we could see a second round of strong to severe storms develop or move into the area later on in the evening. Again it is worth mentioning (as has been the case the past several days), confidence in the timing and location of this severe threat is relatively low even though it is only ~24-36 hours out. Culver && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 223 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Key Messages: - Daily rain and thunder chances peaking each afternoon into the evening over the next 7 days. - Any storms that form will be capable of frequent lightning, gusty winds and producing efficient rainfall supporting the potential for localized flooding. No major updates to the extended forecast compared to the previous forecast. Diurnally enhanced convection occurring during the afternoon into the early evening will be the primary theme over the next 5 to 7 days mirroring the `summertime-like` pattern we all know and love... Showers and storms are likely to be on our doorstep or already ongoing at the start of the long term period (Monday Night) as a cold front inches across the Southeast. We`ll have to see how far the boundary makes it through the area, as this will be a primary focus area for storm development heading into Tuesday. Past experience suggests this may be in the vicinity of the I-20/I-85 corridor (portions of Central GA). The mid-level trough over the Great Lakes will also be lifting northeast on Tuesday. Current long term guidance suggests the frontal boundary will continue inching south eventually stalling somewhere over Southern GA back into parts of South AL/North FL. This baroclinic zone, wherever it sets up will be the main focus for convection through at least the end of the week. With this update, highest rain and thunder chances have shifted a little farther south to cover areas largely south of I-20 through at least Thursday with more isolated to widely scattered chances to the north. Looking towards the end of the work week, while too early to discern any specifics, another midlevel trough tracking eastward across the Southern Plains may support another round of more widespread showers and storms heading into the weekend. Daily rain and thunder chances through the week will peak during the afternoon and evening. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated, it is possible that a storm or two could take advantage of the moist and unstable environment and produce severe winds and/or some small hail. Widespread flooding is also not expected to be an issue this week but redevelopment over areas that have already experienced periods of heavy rainfall may cause isolated instances of flash and/or nuisance flooding. As a reminder, any storms that form will be capable of cloud-to-ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall, so be sure to monitor the forecast, especially if you have outdoor activities planned or are traveling in some capacity. Forecast daytime temperatures start off in the mid 80s (70s in the northeast GA mountains) and increase a degree or two each day until we`re back in the 80s to near 90 (mid 70s to low 80s in the northeast GA mountains) by the end of the work week. Overnight lows remain mild with forecast values in the upper 50s in the mountains to low 70s across south-central GA. 07 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 720 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 MVFR to IFR conditions to start the period as an area of SHRA/TSRA and low CIGs is moving over most sites. Conditions improve by 15Z as that moves east. Winds will remain SW-W at 8-12 kts with gusts near 20 kts until the evening hours. IFR CIGs may move over ATL after 08Z Monday, improving by 15Z. Another round of SHRA/TSRA possible Monday afternoon and evening. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Medium confidence in timing of SHRA/TSRA and CIG/VIS this morning. Medium confidence in CIGs Mon AM. High confidence in winds. Culver && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 85 66 86 68 / 50 0 50 60 Atlanta 84 68 84 68 / 70 0 60 70 Blairsville 81 59 81 61 / 50 0 50 70 Cartersville 86 65 85 65 / 60 0 60 70 Columbus 89 70 86 69 / 80 30 90 80 Gainesville 84 66 84 67 / 50 0 50 60 Macon 89 69 86 69 / 80 20 80 70 Rome 86 64 84 65 / 50 0 60 60 Peachtree City 84 67 84 67 / 70 10 70 70 Vidalia 90 72 87 71 / 70 50 80 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...Culver