517
FXUS62 KCHS 070722
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
322 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

...THE RISK FOR IMPACTS FROM MILTON INCREASING LATER THIS WEEK
AS IT PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA COASTS...

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually weaken across the region on today.
A cold front will push across the area tonight into Tuesday as
Hurricane Milton strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico. The center
of Milton is forecast to track east across Florida on Wednesday,
tracking over the western Atlantic Wednesday night into
Thursday. High pressure should build across the region by late
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Through Daybreak: Morning surface observations show some patchy,
locally dense fog has developed across the far interior within
a decoupled boundary layer. The fog should not become too
significant since low-level moisture is shallow and 1000 hPa
condensation pressure deficits are marginal. Any fog will
quickly mix out after sunrise.

Today: Hurricane Milton will churn across the southwest Gulf of
Mexico while broad high pressure remains anchored across the
Southeast U.S and Deep South. The area will remain in the warm
sector ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest.
Despite the broad mid-level weakness aloft, there is no risk for
measurable rainfall given the increasingly dry airmass in
place. Plentiful sunshine coupled with 850 hPa temperatures near
15C and 1000-850 hPa thicknesses of 1405-1410 m will support
highs in the mid-upper 80s with lower 80s closer to the
immediate coast and upper 70s/near 80 at the beaches.

Tonight: The approaching cold front will push offshore early
Tuesday morning with little fanfare. The boundary layer should
decouple quickly after sunset resulting in calm to
light/variable winds. Clear skies, lowering dewpoints and a
calm/light wind field should support modest radiational cooling.
There are indications that the boundary layer may try and
recouple after FROPA which could curtail the full impact of
radiational cooling. Lows were nudged closer to the colder side
of the 07/00z guidance, but not as cold as some data would
suggest. Lows will range from the lower 60s well inland to the
upper 60s/near 70 at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. A few
upper 50s could occur, mainly in the Francis Marion National
Forest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday: Troughing aloft will prevail across the eastern CONUS,
while a shortwave trough ripples across the southeastern states
along the southern periphery of the large scale trough. At the
surface a cold front will push through the region.
Simultaneously Hurricane Milton will strengthen in the Gulf of
Mexico and progress east to northeastward towards the Florida
Peninsula. The large scale circulation around Hurricane Milton
will likely cause the aforementioned front to become stalled
near the southeastern coast, in the vicinity of the local
forecast area. Despite FROPA, conditions are forecast to remain
dry. High temperatures will reach into the mid 80s and building
cloud cover will allow overnight temperatures to remain rather
mild in the 60s.

Wednesday and Thursday: Hurricane Milton will continue to trek
east to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico towards the
Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. The current NHC forecast shows
Hurricane Milton making landfall along the Florida Peninsula
late Wednesday and emerging on the Atlantic side of Florida on
Thursday. Many forecast details across the local region will be
heavily dependent on the strength, timing, and placement of
Hurricane Milton. As the hurricane passes to the south of the
local area precipitation will spread from south to north
Wednesday night into Thursday. Depending on the placement of
Milton there will likely be a sharp precipitation gradient on
the northern edge. A minor shift northward/southward would
likely impact precipitation chances significantly across the
forecast area. Additionally, gusty NE winds will be possible
across the region with Milton`s passage to the south. Similar to
precipitation chances, a small shift northward/southward in the
track would result in noticeable changes to the wind forecast.
Higher confidence exists with the temperature forecast, with
highs in the mid to upper 70s Wednesday and low to mid 70s
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thursday night Hurricane Milton will continue east to
northeastward away from the southeast coast into the Atlantic
Ocean. Conditions across the forecast area will improve on
Friday, with any lingering precipitation confined to the marine
zones. Cooler high pressure will begin to build into the region.
High temperatures Friday are forecast to only reach into the
low 70s. Overnight temperatures Friday night will likely be the
coolest observed for a while, with mid to upper 50s along the
coastal counties and possibly some upper 40s far inland. A
rather nice weekend is forecast, with rain-free conditions and
gradually warming temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
07/06z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 08/06z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible
mid-week as Hurricane Milton crosses the Florida Peninsula and
emerges off the SE U.S. coast. Additionally, periods of gusty NE
winds will be possible mid-week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: Northeast winds will slowly diminish a bit
today as high pressure builds south. Winds will setting into the
10 kt or 10-15 kt range later this morning and continue into
tonight as a weak cold front shifts offshore. Seas will average
2-4 ft nearshore waters and 5-6 ft over the Georgia offshore
waters out 20-60 NM where a Small Craft Advisory remains in
force.

Tuesday: A cold front will approach the local waters from the
west as Hurricane Milton treks east to northeastward across the
Gulf of Mexico. The large circulation around Milton will likely
cause the approaching cold front to stall in the vicinity of the
local waters. Northeast winds will begin to surge as the
pressure gradient becomes pinched between the cold front and
Hurricane Milton. Seas will also begin to build, especially
across the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters. Small Craft
Advisories may be required for the nearshore GA waters in
addition to the ongoing advisory over the outer GA waters.

Wednesday and Thursday: Conditions across the marine zones will
deteriorate quickly with tropical storm conditions possible as
Hurricane Milton approaches and passes over the Florida
Peninsula. The forecast will be largely dominated by the timing,
placement, and strength of Hurricane Milton along the Florida
Peninsula. However, gusty NE winds are likely across the marine
waters, possibly gusting to around 50 knots across the GA waters
with it`s closest passage to the coast. Seas are forecast to
build to 15 to 20 feet in the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters.

Friday and Saturday: Conditions should begin to improve on
Friday as Hurricane Milton progresses further into the Atlantic
and away from the east coast. Gusty NE winds around 25 knots
will still be common Friday, and while seas will begin to
diminish they are still forecast to be 5 to 7 ft along the
nearshore waters and 8 to 10 ft across the 20 to 60 nm offshore
GA waters. Conditions will continue to improve into Saturday as
high pressure builds into the region.

Rip Currents: Long period swells generated by distant Hurricane
Kirk will continue to impact the beaches through Tuesday.
Periods of 15-16 seconds will be common with breakers as high as
3 ft today and 3-4 ft on Tuesday. A high risk for rip currents
is in place for both days to account for this.

High Surf: The risk for high surf with breaking waves of 5 ft or
higher along with significant beach erosion will increase later this
week as Milton emerges off the Florida East Coast. A High Surf
Advisory could be needed for the beaches by mid-week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flooding will be possible during high tides from
Tuesday through Thursday morning along the entire coast. Coastal
flooding appears most likely as Milton tracks across FL to the
western Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday. The greatest high tide
values may be observed Thursday early afternoon.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ117-119-139-
     141.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ048>051.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ374.

&&

$$