219 FXUS62 KFFC 110227 AAB AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1027 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 ...Evening Update... .UPDATE... Issued at 1011 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 The Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight from roughly I-20 down to a line from Columbus to Macon. The discrete storms earlier this afternoon have congealed into a line with bowing segments this evening. The hazards will continue to be hail (some quarter size) and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. Mid-level lapse rates ahead of this complex of storms is 7.0-7.5 C/km, although CAPE has largely decreased. The storms are maintaining steam in part thanks to the left exit region of a jet streak curving around the base of the trough aloft, which is aiding in ascent. The complex of storms will continue tracking southward through the overnight hours, exiting the southern tier of the CWA by the early morning hours. Martin && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 A cold front will move south across the CWA overnight and into tomorrow. Ahead of the frontal passage, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of north and central portions of GA this afternoon and evening. The hi-res models continue to be pretty consistent with the timing and with the general trends. A weak line of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move across northern portions of the state early this afternoon. A second, stronger and more organized, wave of convection is likely later this afternoon into the evening hours. The organized convection axis has shifted somewhat south from yesterday`s runs...mainly along a path between metro ATL and Columbus and areas southeast. Afternoon/evening storms will have modest CAPE values (good heating/50s dewpoints) and steep lapse rates. Forecast soundings also show a decent inverted V structure, good for gusty storms. Still expecting large hail and damaging wind gusts as the primary severe weather hazards. Models continue to weaken the secondary wave of storms as it moves into central portions of GA this evening. Seems reasonable with the loss of heating and getting away from the main dynamic forcing to the north. Upper moves across the TN valley tomorrow. Models do tend to underestimate the amount of cloud cover as these types of systems move by, so have upped the sky grids a bit to compensate. Also, some scattered shra possible as the low may provide just enough lift. NListemaa && .LONG TERM... (Saturday morning through next Wednesday) Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Key Messages: - The potential exists for overnight frost formation north of Interstate 85 and patchy sub freezing temperatures in the mountains this weekend. - Dry weather is favored in the region between Saturday and Thursday. This Weekend: An area of surface high pressure will build into the Southeast over the weekend. This will combine with dry northwest flow aloft to produce fairs skies, mild temperatures and dry weather. Weakening surface pressure gradients should also lead to lighter winds in the region (especially on Sunday). Radiational cooling should be significant both Friday night and Saturday night and this may lead to some frost/freeze concerns across northern Georgia. On Saturday morning it looks like the coolest temperatures will be limited to the sheltered areas in the mountains of northeast Georgia. Then on Sunday morning the potential for at least Frost Advisory level conditions exists along and north of Interstate 85. For the northeast Georgia mountains there is a 50% chance of a Frost Advisory (overnight lows below 36 degrees) Friday night into Saturday morning, and a 50% chance of a Freeze Warning (overnight lows below 32 degrees) Saturday night and Sunday morning. Along and north of Interstate 85 there is a 40% chance of a Frost Advisory Saturday night and Sunday morning. High temperatures will struggle on Saturday due to continued northwest winds and the resulting CAA. As a consequence afternoon high temperatures should wallow in the lower 60s across north Georgia and claw their way into the upper 60s in central Georgia. High temperatures of this magnitude would be 7 to 12 degrees colder than seasonal averages. A transition to westerly winds, continued low relative humidity and sunshine should allow high temperatures to climb to within 1-3 degrees of seasonal averages on Sunday. Everywhere except the mountains can anticipate afternoon highs in the 70s. Considerations for Next Week: An upper level trough tracking through the Great Lakes early next week should bring southerly winds and WAA back to Georgia. Temperatures should respond accordingly by rising into the lower 80s Monday afternoon. Attention then turns to a potential cold frontal passage Tuesday or Tuesday night. This may lead to midweek temperature declines, with 70s favored on Wednesday. Trends in the GEFS and EPS guidance continue to pull back on the rain chances, with more than 90% of ensemble members keeping rain amounts under 0.10 inches in north Georgia. The odds of accumulating precipitation in central Georgia are less than 5%. Albright && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 742 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Severe thunderstorms are moving SSE across north Georgia along and north of I-20. Hail -- some large -- is occurring with these storms. Expect convection to continue for the next several hours. Have a TEMPO for TSRA at ATL and the other metro sites until 04z, at AHN 01z-05z, and at MCN and CSG 04z-08z as the convection shifts southward. Gusty, erratic winds can be expected in TSRA. Mid-level ceilings (from ~4 kft to ~10 kft) are expected after the convection overnight with FEW/SCT MVFR clouds possible. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium confidence on ceilings overnight into tomorrow (Friday) morning. High confidence on all other elements. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 50 73 50 67 / 0 20 70 30 Atlanta 49 74 52 65 / 0 30 70 40 Blairsville 41 65 44 57 / 0 50 60 30 Cartersville 45 73 47 63 / 0 30 70 30 Columbus 46 77 53 71 / 0 10 60 30 Gainesville 47 71 49 63 / 0 30 70 30 Macon 47 76 54 71 / 0 10 60 20 Rome 42 73 47 63 / 0 40 70 30 Peachtree City 41 76 49 67 / 0 20 60 40 Vidalia 52 79 57 75 / 0 10 30 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....Albright AVIATION...Martin