333 FXUS62 KFFC 110012 AAA AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 812 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 A cold front will move south across the CWA overnight and into tomorrow. Ahead of the frontal passage, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of north and central portions of GA this afternoon and evening. The hi-res models continue to be pretty consistent with the timing and with the general trends. A weak line of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move across northern portions of the state early this afternoon. A second, stronger and more organized, wave of convection is likely later this afternoon into the evening hours. The organized convection axis has shifted somewhat south from yesterday`s runs...mainly along a path between metro ATL and Columbus and areas southeast. Afternoon/evening storms will have modest CAPE values (good heating/50s dewpoints) and steep lapse rates. Forecast soundings also show a decent inverted V structure, good for gusty storms. Still expecting large hail and damaging wind gusts as the primary severe weather hazards. Models continue to weaken the secondary wave of storms as it moves into central portions of GA this evening. Seems reasonable with the loss of heating and getting away from the main dynamic forcing to the north. Upper moves across the TN valley tomorrow. Models do tend to underestimate the amount of cloud cover as these types of systems move by, so have upped the sky grids a bit to compensate. Also, some scattered shra possible as the low may provide just enough lift. NListemaa && .LONG TERM... (Saturday morning through next Wednesday) Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Key Messages: - The potential exists for overnight frost formation north of Interstate 85 and patchy sub freezing temperatures in the mountains this weekend. - Dry weather is favored in the region between Saturday and Thursday. This Weekend: An area of surface high pressure will build into the Southeast over the weekend. This will combine with dry northwest flow aloft to produce fairs skies, mild temperatures and dry weather. Weakening surface pressure gradients should also lead to lighter winds in the region (especially on Sunday). Radiational cooling should be significant both Friday night and Saturday night and this may lead to some frost/freeze concerns across northern Georgia. On Saturday morning it looks like the coolest temperatures will be limited to the sheltered areas in the mountains of northeast Georgia. Then on Sunday morning the potential for at least Frost Advisory level conditions exists along and north of Interstate 85. For the northeast Georgia mountains there is a 50% chance of a Frost Advisory (overnight lows below 36 degrees) Friday night into Saturday morning, and a 50% chance of a Freeze Warning (overnight lows below 32 degrees) Saturday night and Sunday morning. Along and north of Interstate 85 there is a 40% chance of a Frost Advisory Saturday night and Sunday morning. High temperatures will struggle on Saturday due to continued northwest winds and the resulting CAA. As a consequence afternoon high temperatures should wallow in the lower 60s across north Georgia and claw their way into the upper 60s in central Georgia. High temperatures of this magnitude would be 7 to 12 degrees colder than seasonal averages. A transition to westerly winds, continued low relative humidity and sunshine should allow high temperatures to climb to within 1-3 degrees of seasonal averages on Sunday. Everywhere except the mountains can anticipate afternoon highs in the 70s. Considerations for Next Week: An upper level trough tracking through the Great Lakes early next week should bring southerly winds and WAA back to Georgia. Temperatures should respond accordingly by rising into the lower 80s Monday afternoon. Attention then turns to a potential cold frontal passage Tuesday or Tuesday night. This may lead to midweek temperature declines, with 70s favored on Wednesday. Trends in the GEFS and EPS guidance continue to pull back on the rain chances, with more than 90% of ensemble members keeping rain amounts under 0.10 inches in north Georgia. The odds of accumulating precipitation in central Georgia are less than 5%. Albright && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 742 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Severe thunderstorms are moving SSE across north Georgia along and north of I-20. Hail -- some large -- is occurring with these storms. Expect convection to continue for the next several hours. Have a TEMPO for TSRA at ATL and the other metro sites until 04z, at AHN 01z-05z, and at MCN and CSG 04z-08z as the convection shifts southward. Gusty, erratic winds can be expected in TSRA. Mid-level ceilings (from ~4 kft to ~10 kft) are expected after the convection overnight with FEW/SCT MVFR clouds possible. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium confidence on ceilings overnight into tomorrow (Friday) morning. High confidence on all other elements. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 50 67 43 66 / 70 30 30 0 Atlanta 52 65 44 64 / 70 40 40 0 Blairsville 44 57 36 59 / 60 30 30 0 Cartersville 47 63 39 63 / 70 30 30 0 Columbus 53 71 46 68 / 60 30 30 0 Gainesville 49 63 43 65 / 70 30 30 0 Macon 54 71 47 69 / 60 20 20 0 Rome 47 63 41 63 / 70 30 30 0 Peachtree City 49 67 41 65 / 60 40 40 0 Vidalia 57 75 50 71 / 30 10 10 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....Albright AVIATION...Martin