987
FXUS62 KFFC 141853
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
253 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025
...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025
Key Messages:
- Southwesterly flow continues through the weekend with diurnally
driven convection each afternoon and evening. Strong thunderstorms
will be possible, with frequent lightning and gusty winds being the
main threats.
- Localized flooding risk increases through the weekend with
numerous showers and thunderstorms and saturated soils.
The region remains situated between a weak Bermuda high to the east
and troughing to the west extending towards the Lower Mississippi
River Valley. As a result, a southwesterly flow pattern persists
over Georgia as the forecast period begins, which continues to bring
warm, moist air from the Gulf into the forecast area. As a result,
dewpoints will remain in the low 70s in north Georgia and mid 70s in
central Georgia and precipitable water values will remain largely
between 1.7 and 2.2 inches. As low clouds from earlier this morning
have scattered out and temperatures rise, diurnally driven
convection has begun, with numerous showers and thunderstorms
ongoing in east-central Georgia (with enhancement from the sea
breeze) and scattered showers and thunderstorms elsewhere. With
SBCAPE anticipated to increase to between 2500-3500 J/kg, the
coverage of storms is expected to increase through the late
afternoon hours.
As the aforementioned trough moves northeast, hi-res guidance
continues to indicate modest 0-1 km shear and loosely organized
convective clusters in Tennessee/north Alabama advancing into north
Georgia this evening into tonight. A few storms this afternoon
through tonight will have the potential to become strong to severe.
With DCAPE values between 600-1000 J/kg and deep atmospheric
moisture contributing to precip-loading in storm downdrafts,
stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty, damaging winds.
Furthermore, all storms will contain frequent lightning, which could
pose a threat to outdoor activities this afternoon and evening.
Finally, as the wet southwesterly flow pattern continues, antecedent
soil conditions are becoming more saturated in locations that have
seen heavy rainfall accumulations over the course of several days.
With high PWATs, stronger storms will be efficient rainfall
producers, which could lead to localized flooding concerns
considering saturated soils.
Patchy fog and low cloud ceilings will likely during the overnight
and early morning hours on Sunday, particularly in locations where
soils are saturated from previous rainfall and cloud cover
dissipates. The trough axis will lift northeast of Georgia over the
course of the day on Sunday, though little to no change will occur
in the southwesterly flow regime as the trough is absorbed into the
main flow. Convection on Sunday will be diurnally-driven once again,
this time with the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms
being focused across north Georgia closest to the base of the
trough. Once again, a few storms will have the potential of becoming
strong, capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
heavy rain. Considering the chances for showers and thunderstorms
each day and the associated cloud cover, high temperatures will run
near normal for mid-June today and Sunday, in the 80s across the
majority of the area. Low temperatures will closely reflect
dewpoints, and range from 3-7 degrees above daily normals.
King
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025
Key Messages
- The persistent diurnally-enhanced stormy weather pattern will
linger through the bulk of the week.
- Locally heavy rainfall will be possible each day.
- The forecast may take a turn toward drier, hotter conditions
by next weekend.
Our wet and stormy pattern will remain in place through the coming
work week. PoPs will remain elevated above climatological
normals with scattered to widespread diurnally-enhanced convection
each day. This stormier weather comes to us courtesy of a persistent
trough situated in between areas of high pressure over the
western Atlantic and extending eastward from the Southwest US. Deep
moisture will continue to extend across the local area within
southwest flow aloft, keeping PWATs elevated in the 1.5 - 2" range.
Given this very moist environment, locally heavy rainfall will
remain a general concern each day. While widespread flash flooding
issues are not anticipated, training or slow-moving thunderstorms
could lead to localized street flooding and/or flash flooding
potential. Fortunately, despite June afternoon/evening SBCAPE
of 1500-3000 J/kg, little in the way of shear will limit any
widespread severe potential. Still, localized strong downburst winds
will be possible in the more intense storms each afternoon and
evening.
While this aforementioned pattern more or less hangs strong through
the end of the week, signs of change are potentially in the offing
by next weekend. There is broad ensemble support for intensifying
midlevel ridging over the eastern US, potentially bringing lower
rain chances but also hotter temperatures by the end of the forecast
period next weekend.
Temperatures will be on a gradual upward trend through the week.
Highs will initially be primarily in the upper 80s across north
Georgia and low 90s in Middle Georgia early week. Probabilities for
highs in the lower 90s in north Georgia to the mid 90s in Middle
Georgia will then increase by late week. Given persistent low-to-mid
70s dewpoints, heat index values will tack on a couple of degrees to
the air temperature, though these are forecast to remain below
Advisory criteria at this point. Lows will remain in the low 70s for
most.
RW
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025
Showers and thunderstorms have developed across portions of
central and north Georgia, and will continue to increase in
coverage through the late afternoon, warranting a TEMPO for TSRA
from 18-22Z at MCN and 20-00Z at all other TAF sites. Ceilings
will remain mainly low VFR between 030-040 this afternoon, though
MVFR level ceilings will be possible with any TSRA. Another round
of SHRA/TSRA could traverse north Georgia between 00-04Z
overnight, with impacts most likely across the northern ATL metro
sites. Clouds will briefly scatter out after midnight, though IFR
ceilings and patchy fog is anticipated to develop once again
between 09-10Z and remain through mid-morning on Sunday.
Prevailing winds will be SW through the period at 10 kts or less.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.
King
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 69 87 70 88 / 40 60 30 60
Atlanta 70 86 71 87 / 60 60 30 70
Blairsville 64 81 64 81 / 60 80 30 80
Cartersville 68 87 69 87 / 70 60 30 70
Columbus 70 88 71 89 / 40 60 30 70
Gainesville 69 85 70 86 / 50 60 30 70
Macon 70 89 72 89 / 30 60 30 70
Rome 69 86 69 86 / 70 60 30 80
Peachtree City 68 87 69 87 / 50 50 30 70
Vidalia 72 91 73 92 / 40 60 40 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...King