929
FXUS62 KFFC 131025
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
625 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025
...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025
Key Messages:
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be
expected again this afternoon and evening.
- Areas of heavy rainfall will bring an additional concern
for localized flash flooding where highest totals occur.
A moist tropical environment remains situated across the area amid
southwest flow providing PWATs 2+". A primary player in today`s
weather will be a weak low pressure presently situated across the
Alabama Gulf coastline which will propagate northeastward through
this evening. This disturbance will be an instigator of showers and
thunderstorms, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours, that
will spread initially from western Georgia northeastward. The deep
moisture in place will contribute to an ongoing concern for locally
heavy rainfall as we saw in some areas of northwest and north
Georgia yesterday. This heavy rainfall and associated localized
flash flooding threat will be highest in the northwestern half of
the CWA with more diffuse coverage expected farther southeastward.
As such, another Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall
from WPC is in effect today across far north Georgia in areas that
received the heaviest rainfall on Tuesday. A Marginal Risk covers
roughly the remaining northwestern two thirds of the area.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely persist into part of
the overnight hours with support from the aforementioned wave as it
progresses northeastward before a gradual downward trend in coverage
by early Thursday morning. PoPs during the day on Thursday will be
more on the order of typical widely scattered diurnal convection
without as clear an impetus as Wednesday. Still, with little in the
way of airmass change, locally heavy rainfall will remain a
possibility within the very moist environment.
High temperatures both today and Thursday will definitely be back to
our regularly scheduled summer program for mid August, ranging from
the upper 80s to mid 90s. In fact, maximum heat index values in east-
central Georgia will likely reach as high as 100-104 degrees -
certainly hot, but shy of Heat Advisory criteria.
RW
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025
Key Messages:
- Daily afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances through next week
(mainly diurnally driven).
- Temps rising to above normal into the weekend with highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s.
Discussion:
Mid-level ridging will be the main flow pattern through the long
term beginning Friday as we see the trough north of the area
continue pushing into the NE and the ridging push further into the
gulf. Meanwhile at the surface an inverted trough begins to move out
of the area setting the stage for a weaker flow pattern through the
end of the week. SW flow should turn more westerly as the area is
between the quasi-zonal flow to the north and the ridging to the
south into the weekend. Rain chances through Thursday remain
elevated at 50-60% across the area but by Friday chances begin to
decrease as much of the southeast is under the influence of ridging
aloft and high pressure at the surface. With a potential
troughing/weak low pressure center off the Carolina coast Saturday
into Sunday this may be enough moisture to allow for more scattered
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms instead of just isolated.
Temps will also begin rising into the weekend with highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s which is around 4-5 degrees above normal for
some areas. Will wait to see as it gets closer but Friday does show
signs of approaching heat advisory criteria for southeast central
Georgia.
Hernandez
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025
IFR to LIFR cigs have built in to most TAF sites this morning and
will largely persist through 14-15Z before improvement to MVFR.
VFR cigs become likely by 17-18Z. Sct SHRA/TSRA are most likely
20-02Z with some lingering activity possible through 06Z Weds. IFR
to perhaps LIFR cigs are again likely Weds AM, especially after
06Z. Winds remain SW to SSW at 3-7 kts.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence on cig and SHRA/TSRA timing.
High confidence on winds.
RW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 88 72 88 72 / 60 50 30 10
Atlanta 88 72 88 73 / 70 40 30 10
Blairsville 83 67 85 67 / 70 40 50 0
Cartersville 89 71 90 71 / 70 40 30 10
Columbus 89 73 91 74 / 80 50 40 10
Gainesville 88 72 88 72 / 70 40 30 0
Macon 91 73 89 73 / 60 60 30 10
Rome 88 71 89 71 / 70 30 30 10
Peachtree City 88 71 89 72 / 70 50 30 10
Vidalia 93 75 91 75 / 50 30 50 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...RW