797 FXUS62 KFFC 132347 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 747 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Continued robust southwesterly flow from the cutoff low over the gulf will bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Coverage will be patchy with a summer-like pattern, though high PWATS and the approaching low will drive generally increasing coverage through the weekend. Thunderstorms this afternoon are likely to be more organized than yesterday with a passing shortwave currently over western AL and TN alongside effects from sea breeze convection from the southeast. A few light showers have already begun to pop across central and north GA where SFCCAPE values currently sit at nearly 2000-3000 J/Kg. Storm potential is expected to peak each afternoon with diurnal heating and taper off through the late evening. A few storms could become strong with locally heavy rainfall (could lead to localized flash flooding), frequent lighting (an issue for many who plan to be outside this weekend), and locally gusty winds (40-50mph). Widespread or organized severe is not anticipated at this time with DCAPE values less than 900 J/Kg, but water loading could lead to a very isolated threat for damaging winds. While temperatures won`t be anything too impressive, dewpoints in the 70s and highs in the 80s will mean apparent temperatures reach into the 90s by the end of the weekend. Stay hydrated and be aware of how much time you spend outdoors. SM && .LONG TERM... (Sunday morning through next Thursday) Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 With persistent troughing extending from the Great Lakes towards the Lower Mississippi River Valley, southwesterly upper level flow will remain in place over the region on Sunday and into next week, which will keep conditions wet and humid across north and central Georgia. Continued advection of warm and moist air from the Gulf will keep dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and precipitable water values mainly between 1.75 and 2 inches during the weekend and through the early parts of next week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be higher than normal each day given this ample moisture. Convective activity will be largely diurnally driven, with low PoPs through much of the mornings, increasing through the early afternoons, and peaking between 60-70% in the mid to late afternoon hours each day. The southern end of a surface low (to the east of the trough) advancing through the Tennessee Valley region on Sunday afternoon is expected to provide additional lift and contribute to locally higher PoPs across the northern tier. While the threat for organized severe weather will be low, a few storms each day could become strong and capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds. Furthermore, with high PWATs, these storms will be efficient rainfall producers, which could lead to isolated flooding concerns. As the wet pattern continues, antecedent soil conditions will become more saturated in locations that see heavy rainfall accumulations over the course of multiple days, and the probability for flash flooding will progressively increase as a result. Patchy fog will also be possible during the overnight and early morning hours, particularly where soils are saturated from previous rainfall and cloud cover dissipates. Considering the chances for showers and thunderstorms each day and the associated cloud cover, high temperatures will run near normal for mid-June on Sunday, in the 80s across the majority of the area area. Temperatures will begin to climb in the early portions of next week, particularly to the south of the Fall Line, where highs will rise into the low to mid 90s. These temperatures, combined with the aforementioned dewpoints, will contribute to maximum heat indices of 98-103 degrees in portions of central Georgia on Monday through Thursday. Low temperatures will closely reflect the dewpoints, and will run about 4-8 degrees above daily normals each morning. King && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 740 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Chance for lingering -TSRA impacts at ATL thru 03Z tonight. A pd of IFR (and perhaps LIFR) cigs is psbl between 09-14Z for northern TAF sites, and cannot rule out some low-VFR to MVFR vsbys in tandem, but confidence is relatively low. Beyond that, primarily SCT-BKN low VFR to MVFR cigs exp thru the pd. VCSH likely beginning as early as 15-16Z, with best chances for -TSRA on Saturday aftn between 18-24Z areawide, but may extend after sunset depending on where initiation occurs. Winds will remain light (4-5kts or less) out of the SW overnight, picking up at speeds of 5-8kts -- outside of any TSRA -- from 15-16Z on. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium confidence all elements. 96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 70 85 69 85 / 50 70 50 70 Atlanta 71 85 70 85 / 50 70 50 70 Blairsville 65 80 64 80 / 80 80 70 90 Cartersville 70 87 68 86 / 60 80 70 80 Columbus 72 87 71 88 / 40 70 40 70 Gainesville 70 83 69 84 / 50 80 60 80 Macon 71 88 71 88 / 50 80 30 70 Rome 69 86 69 84 / 60 80 70 80 Peachtree City 70 86 69 86 / 50 70 50 70 Vidalia 73 88 72 91 / 60 70 30 70 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SM LONG TERM....King AVIATION...96