121
FXUS62 KFFC 011035
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
635 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025
...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025
Key Messages:
- Dry with a hazy sky today and tomorrow (Monday) due to
wildfire smoke from Canada.
- Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms possible
across far north Georgia today.
For the vast majority of north and central Georgia, today will be
dry with a mix of sun and clouds. Like yesterday, the sky may
have a hazy/milky appearance as northwesterly flow continues to
funnel wildfire smoke from Canada southeastward. This smoke is
elevated well above the ground, so impacts to surface visibility
are not expected. Low temperatures will be in the mid-50s to
mid-60s this morning. High temperatures will be in the 80s, with
the exception of the cooler mountain terrain.
The 6/1 00z runs of the suite of HREF hi-res models (with the
exception of the HRW FV3, which tends to run "hot") suggest that
isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be confined
to far north Georgia this afternoon and early evening... generally
along and north of a line from Summerville (Chattooga County) to
Jasper (Pickens County) to Cleveland (White County). A disturbance
aloft currently diving southward across Kansas will continue
sliding southeastward across the Lower Mississippi River Valley
through the day, but it may not be proximate enough to aid in
ascent or divergence aloft for storms. Still, a storm or two could
produce gusty winds up to around 40 mph and heavy rainfall, as
HREF mean MUCAPE peaks at 500-1000 J/kg. HREF mean surface to 500
mb shear is meager (<30 kts) so not expecting storms to become
well organized. Consensus among the hi-res models is that mid-
level lapse rates will be meager as well. It is possible, but not
likely, that a storm or two could capitalize on this overall "meh"
environment and produce small hail. Any storms today will be
capable of cloud-to-ground lightning, so be sure to monitor the
forecast, especially if you have outdoor activities planned.
The larger-scale mid-/upper-level trough that has been situated
over the Eastern Seaboard will shift eastward tomorrow. A ridge
will build across the Southeast in response, bringing dry
conditions and a mostly sunny sky. Low temperatures tomorrow
morning will be in the lower 50s to mid-60s. High temperatures
tomorrow afternoon will be in the 80s to around 90 degrees. HRRR
Vertically Integrated Smoke suggests that wildfire smoke will
remain entrained in the flow over the Southeast tomorrow, so the
sky will likely still have a hazy/milky appearance.
Martin
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025
Key Messages
- Dry weather and near normal temperatures will persist
through midweek.
- Moisture will surge back northward by late week, leading to
increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage by next weekend.
Upper ridging will build eastward at the start of the long term,
leading to dry weather and generally quiet conditions for early to
midweek. Temperatures will run near to slightly above normal through
Wednesday. Highs will largely range from the mid 80s north to low
90s south with lows ranging through the 60s.
Changes arrive by Thursday into Friday as the ridge flattens and
surface high pressure translates eastward into the Atlantic,
allowing moisture to surge back northward. As such, PWATs surge back
toward 1.5"+ by Friday with scattered to widespread diurnal
convection returning. Even more widespread showers and thunderstorms
appear more likely by next weekend as a cold front drops toward the
Tennessee Valley. This should serve as a focus for increasing
rainfall coverage initially across north Georgia during this time.
The risk for at least a few strong/isolated severe thunderstorms may
also begin to increase next weekend, though details remain nebulous
at this juncture. High temperatures will remain generally in the mid
80s to low 90s range, though higher humidity will certainly make
things feel more summery. Low temperatures will also begin to creep
toward the 70s by next weekend.
RW
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Mid-/upper-
level clouds will increase by mid-morning to early afternoon with
a Cu field ~5 kft developing around 15z-16z. West winds will be
5-10 kts during the day and will then relax tonight. Like
yesterday, wildfire smoke from Canada is suspended high in the
atmosphere, so reductions to surface visibility are not expected.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.
Martin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 82 61 84 62 / 10 10 0 0
Atlanta 82 63 85 65 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 77 54 79 57 / 30 20 0 0
Cartersville 82 59 85 62 / 10 10 0 0
Columbus 84 63 89 66 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 81 61 84 63 / 10 10 0 0
Macon 84 62 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 82 60 85 61 / 10 10 0 0
Peachtree City 82 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 86 66 89 68 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Martin