897
FXUS62 KFFC 130704
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
304 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025
...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Key Messages:
-Daily shower and thunderstorm chances remain high
-Main hazards will be heavy rainfall and frequent lightning
-Flooding risk increases as grounds become saturated
The region is wedged between a fairly broad/flat yet weak Bermuda
ridge aloft extending from the Atlantic to FL and a cut off low to
the west over the southern plains. The result is a modest SW flow
aloft around the 2 features ushering in deep moisture. PWAT values
running 1.75"+ put the region in the 90+ percentile for this time
of year. Model guidance continues to point to likely pops each day
in the short term likely triggered during afternoon heating once
convective temps are reached. One interesting but subtle parameter
is the forecast mid level lapse rates both Fri and Sat across the
region. Models generally agree on above climo values in the 6.3 to
6.5 deg c/km range which falls in the 75th percentile. Forecast
surface instabilities should also serve to invigorate convection
each day with values running 2500-3500 j/kg. It all should be
enough to ensure that frequent lightning is possible with any
storms similar to what was observed Thursday evening. In addition,
and while the SPC outlook only shows General Thunder, there is a
risk for a few severe storms due to strong winds/microburst. Winds
aloft are relatively weak so would not expect anything widespread
or organized like last Saturday, but cannot rule out a few
isolated severe.
Will need to watch Saturday closely as the remnant upper low
begins to lift NE and into the TN valley. Height falls while
subtle and any wave, weak or not, within the SW flow on the east
side of the low would be enough to trigger a few more severe
storms than expected. As previously mentioned, instability looks
sufficient to support a severe storm and actually slightly more
favorable Saturday over Friday. There are hints of that in the
NAM3k with a MCS moving into TN early Sat AM and the outflow
triggering storms across N AL on Saturday. Worth watching
particularly given the large number of outdoor activities set up
for the weekend. Regardless..with the high PWAT values, rainfall
rates with any storms will be high thus the potential for flash
flooding increases each day we remain in this pattern.
KS
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Key Messages:
- Enhanced moisture will continue across the region under the
influence of southwesterly flow.
- Diurnally driven rain chances expected through the extended
period.
- High temperatures expected near seasonal norms with with lows
remaining 3-7 deg above.
No major changes made to the extended period. By Sat night the
Bermuda like surface ridge centered over the western Atlantic will
have weakened a bit and moves a bit further south with its axis over
central FL and the northern Gulf. This puts the southeastern US in
good Southwesterly flow and good gulf moisture streaming across the
area through the extended periods. This ridge stays fairly
stationary through the middle of next week keeping GA in a very wet
pattern. This will let shortwaves over the Mid MS river valley and
the gulf to move in across GA keeping diurnally driven precip
chances elevated. As such, an active weather pattern is forecast to
persist into next week, PoPs expected in the 65-85% range each
afternoon. PWs stay in the 1.5" to 2.5" range through the extended
periods. Instability indices will also be diurnally driven with
capes getting up into the 500-1500J/Kg range everyday.
Because of the continued precip chances daytime highs will be mainly
in the 80s to lower 90s each day with night time lows in the 60s to
lower 70.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025
remnant showers moving out and mainly affecting AHN, otherwise
winds have settled to 3kts or less most sites with cloud debris
and low clouds setting up. With low dewpoint depressions could see
some fog develop along with some IFR cigs. Have inserted a tempo
to account for that possibility which is in line with various
guidance suggesting the possibility. Friday will be a rinse and
repeat kind of day with TSRA chances increasing in the afternoon.
Prob30 groups in after 18z but guidance suggests chances lingering
into the 02-04z timeframe. Will need to hone in on a timeframe in
the next package but certainly thinking later afternoon early
evening similar to today. Winds will be shifting to the SSW side
by 12z and should remain that side through the forecast.
//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on CIGS and TSRA timing
High confidence all other elements.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 84 69 85 70 / 70 60 80 50
Atlanta 85 71 86 70 / 60 40 80 50
Blairsville 79 65 81 65 / 80 60 90 70
Cartersville 86 69 87 69 / 60 40 90 60
Columbus 88 71 88 72 / 60 30 80 30
Gainesville 82 70 84 70 / 70 60 90 60
Macon 88 71 88 71 / 70 50 80 30
Rome 85 69 87 69 / 60 40 90 60
Peachtree City 87 69 86 70 / 60 40 80 40
Vidalia 89 72 88 73 / 80 50 90 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...KS