410
FXUS62 KCAE 172352
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
652 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread showers are expected Thursday as a cold front moves
through, along with some gusty winds which will into Friday.
Drier weather and a steady warming pattern is then expected into
the weekend and the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):

- Clouds lower and thicken tonight with rain chances increasing
  towards daybreak.

A shortwave trough will slowly move through the Mississippi
River Valley tonight with southwesterly flow developing across
the region. At the surface, winds will be calm or light
southeasterly around offshore high pressure. PWATs will increase
through the overnight hours setting up the development of rain
towards daybreak as isentropic lift increases, especially south
and east of the Columbia area. Clouds will also lower and
thicken during the near term as the next storm system
approaches. The increasing cloudiness should limit cooling
tonight with forecast lows in the lower to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Widespread showers expected Thursday ahead of a strong
  surface front.

The mid-level pattern across the eastern US will continue to
amplify on Thursday as a deep trough digs east and downstream
ridging increases. A leading shortwave will advect northeastward
out of the gulf by early Thursday along with a surge of
strengthening moisture advection. This will quickly enhance
isentropic lift over the area as PWAT`s jump to around 1.25" and
rain chances become likely from roughly 6am onward; HREF
members are in good agreement with a slug of moderate rain
moving northward throughout the morning as this shortwave
quickly lifts north and surface dews points climb into the 50`s.
HREF members are also consistent in showing a weak drier layer
that will advect north for late morning, so we could see a brief
reduction in rain chances before becoming widespread in the
afternoon again. Diabatic cooling and a lack of strong near
surface southerly flow will allow for some in-situ wedging to
develop especially across the western Midlands and Upstate, so
temps will run a bit cooler than guidance before southerly
advection strengthens in the afternoon. Rain chances will
continue into the evening before the surface front arrives, but
by that point, moisture and forcing will be limited. The
pressure gradient will however quickly strengthen behind the
surface front and gusty winds over 30 mph are likely into Friday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Cool and dry conditions expected Friday and Saturday,
  followed by a modest warm up into next week.

Cold advection will dominate on Friday behind the front but
some downsloping will offset and limit daytime high temps. So we
will still climb to around average despite the front. Winds
will remain gusty into the afternoon thanks to some notable
mixing, with gusts over 30 mph likely. Beyond Friday, the
pattern looks remarkably unremarkable. The pattern aloft will
flatten out before deep ridging builds well to our west and we
will sit under a fairly benign airmass. NAEFS and EC EFI
highlight the lack of anything anomalous expected into the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions start the forecast period then restrictions
expected to impact terminals after 12z.

High clouds continue to spread over the area ahead of an
approaching front. Increasing low level moisture overnight will
lead to the development of MVFR restrictions in stratus
developing in the Coastal Plain and spreading northwestward.
Guidance in reasonable agreement bringing MVFR cigs during the
11z-15z time frame and continuing through the day with possible
lowering to IFR at times with rain showers also resulting in
MVFR vsbys through the morning into afternoon hours. Lower
confidence in vsby restrictions at AGS/DNL as they may be on the
fringe of initial rain band but prefrontal rain expected during
the day so vsbys should be reduced by afternoon. Winds near
calm overnight then picking up from the east-southeast after 15z
and possibly shifting more southerly later in the day ahead of
the approaching front.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread rain and restrictions
likely continue into Thursday night before drier air moves in on
Friday behind a cold front, slowly bringing an end to
restrictions. Drier air looks to remain in place for the weekend
with lower chances for restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$