890
FXUS62 KCAE 162049
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
449 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper ridging will be in control of our weather through
Saturday, leading to a prolonged dry period with steadily
warming temperatures. Rain chances increase early next week as
an upper trough approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Key Message:

- Not as cold tonight

Surface high pressure will settle in to the Carolinas tonight,
providing another colder than normal night. However, with cold
advection laying off the gas, temps will only be a few degrees
below normal overnight, despite winds going essentially calm,
except for maybe a little northerly drainage wind.

It`s not impossible that there will be a touch of river fog by
daybreak in the area, but chances are 20% or less, so I won`t
put it in the deterministic forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Upper ridging in control of our weather through the short term
  as high pressure moves offshore.

- A dry warm front lifts through the region on Thursday with
  above normal temperatures expected on Friday.

Upper ridge axis centered over the Great Plains at the start of
the period builds eastward Thursday through Friday night. By the
end of the short term period, the ridge axis will be across the
southeast stretching from the FL Panhandle NE into the
Carolina. At the surface, high pressure to our north shifts
east and should be anchored near Bermuda by daybreak Saturday.
The period begins with clear skies followed by increasing mid to
high level cloudiness as a warm front lifts through the region
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Northeast winds at the
start of the day will shift southeast and eventually south in
response to the lifting warm front and high pressure shifting
east. Southerly flow then continues into Friday. This will have
an impact on temperatures as they will gradually climb each day.
Temperatures in the 70s across the region on Thursday will rise
into the with forecast highs on Thursday in to 70s warming to
lower to middle 80s by Friday afternoon. Temperatures will
remain above normal through the weekend. Overnight temperatures
will also be above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Seasonably Hot and Dry conditions this weekend.

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms early next week.

Upper ridge remains in control of our weather through Saturday
with closed H5 heights over the southeast/Fl on Saturday. Some
differences in speed of next system affecting the region by
Sunday into early next week with the deepening and gradually
moving eastward and ridging weakening and slipping eastward.
However, expect much above normal temperatures are expected
this weekend, with Saturday likely being the hottest of the two
weekend days. There should be more clouds around on Sunday as
the next storm system approaches from the west, but it appears
that rain chances will hold off until at least Monday. As
mentioned, model guidance diverges regarding the timing of the
next storm, but showers and thunderstorms will be possible to
close out the extended period. Hot and dry conditions this
weekend with temperatures moderating closer to normal into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions continue this afternoon with light 5-10 kt winds
that have been a little squirrely but mainly out of the north
northwest to west. Tonight, winds become light and variable to
calm at some spots with some possible passing high clouds. A bit
of ground fog at AGS/OGB cannot fully be ruled out, but the dry
airmass in place limits these odds and keeps mention of this
out of the TAF at this time. Light winds then turn out of the
northeast Thursday morning before becoming more easterly into
the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Not much change in the extended
with limited chances for restrictions. Some patchy fog maybe
possible into Friday morning as moisture starts to slowly
increase but confidence in this is low at the moment.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$