827 FXUS62 KCAE 121831 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 231 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... The region begins to transition to a more summerlike pattern into the upcoming weekend. Hot and humid conditions, along with less organized and more typical pulse storms are expected. This pattern is expected to persist through the first half of next week. Additionally, very hot temperatures and dangerous heat indices are possible by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Typical summertime scattered convection expected this afternoon into this evening with heavy rain and gusty winds possible. Surface high remains offshore this afternoon with the upper ridge axis almost directly overhead. A diffuse surface trough remains stalled across the forecast area today and is not expected to move very much. The daytime cumulus field continues to build among temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 and dewpoints in the low 70s. The seabreeze got things going on the earlier side today, with scattered convection now beginning to enter the southeast Midlands. CAM guidance suggests this will be the primary focus for our summertime pulse convection today, however the aforementioned surface trough may also come into play over the next few hours as overall coverage increases and outflow boundaries start to serve as additional sources of forcing. A weak shortwave is progged to move through the mid level flow later this evening with more a focus toward the Upstate, so the official PoP/Wx forecast hedges toward these areas with higher precip chances toward sunset. Given PWAT values between 1.8" and 2" with relatively slow storm motions, precip loading may lead to heavy rainfall and strong downbursts as the primary threats with storms today. The shortwave may allow for convection to last a bit into the overnight period, but most precip should end from southeast to northwest overnight. We`ll watch for the development of another stratus deck late tonight, particularly in places which receive some heavier rainfall amounts, and lows will be quite mild again with poor radiational cooling, generally only in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Summer-like conditions with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. A somewhat more active weather pattern will continue through Saturday night across the Southeast. While the area will be on the western side of Atlantic high pressure, the upper ridge axis will be far enough offshore to allow numerous shortwaves to ripple through the area, providing an additional focus for convection. The greatest coverage will be during daytime hours when greater instability exists, however the airmass should maintain enough theta-e to support a few showers or tstms through the overnight hours as well. The convective parameters do not look particularly impressive so we don`t expect a widespread threat for severe weather. Nevertheless, given the season, we can never completely rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm with damaging winds and/or large hail. Highs will slowly warm each day with values around 90 degrees in spots by Saturday. Heat indices should remain below advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Message(s): - A gradual warming trend with daily chance for showers and thunderstorms. - Heat index values approaching or exceeding 100 degrees toward the middle of next week. The upper ridge axis is expected to shift west late weekend into early next week with a deep layered ridge building over the Southeast. Precipitation coverage is expected to move back to a more typical summertime pattern with mainly scattered afternoon/evening showers and tstms. High temps are expected to climb toward the middle of next week, with heat indices pushing well above 100 each afternoon. Heat Advisories could be needed for portions of the SC Midlands starting as early as Tuesday where heat indices rise above 108 degrees. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SCT-BKN clouds 3-5kft MSL afternoon as the cumulus deck increases and SCT -SHRA/-TSRA develop across the area into this evening. Convective coverage is expected to be slightly greater than Wednesday, with a general southeast to northwest movement along the sea breeze. Surface winds should remain SLY/SELY at less than 10 kts, though some higher gusts are possible with the stronger -TSRA. Additionally, brief MVFR CIGS/VSBYS are possible with TSRA given high moisture and potentially heavy rainfall. Precip chances diminish into this evening with the loss of daytime heating, with guidance suggesting another round of stratus and associated MVFR/IFR restrictions after 13/08z through daybreak Friday. Restrictions are most likely for locations which receive rainfall today. Winds will be light and variable overnight, increasing in the mid to late morning to around 8 kts while any lingering CIGS gradually scatter out as well. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Brief restrictions are possible each afternoon and evening with typical summertime thunderstorms into early next week. Patchy early morning fog and stratus may also cause some restrictions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EC NEAR TERM...EC SHORT TERM...BRS/CHS LONG TERM...BRS/CHS AVIATION...EC