602
FXUS62 KFFC 121848
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
248 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025
...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms peaking during the
afternoon through the next week. A few may be strong gusty
winds, localized heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.
- Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend may lead to brief localized flooding and lightning may
pose a hazard to outdoor activities.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025
Vertically stacked southwest flow continues to push abundant
moisture into the region with PWATS this morning of 1.87" and model
guidance indicating values upwards of 2" through the next 5-days. The
stalling cut off low over the western gulf the TX/LA coast will
continue to provide broad and weak lift across the southeast.
Combining the moisture, warm June temperatures, and lift means
thunderstorms chances nearly every day, peaking in the afternoon
each day. Storms will likely be scattered in nature, however most
people will likely see at least a sprinkle.
CAPE values each afternoon are likely to exceed 1000-1500 J/Kg.
DCAPE values this morning were already over 400 J/Kg suggesting
afternoon values each afternoon could easily exceed 900 J/Kg. This
would allow storms to develop brief, but strong, gusty winds.
Otherwise the main hazards will be frequent lightning and locally
heavy rainfall. So whether your favorite outdoor activities are
Georgia classics like floating down the river, participating in
outdoor sports, or getting bit by mosquitos make sure to be weather
aware.
SM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025
As the long term period begins on Saturday, a 500 mb trough will
extend from the Midwest towards the Lower Mississippi River Valley,
which will keep Georgia underneath southwesterly flow aloft as it
slowly advances eastward. Continued advection of warm and moist air
from the Gulf will keep dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and
precipitable water values between 1.75 and 2 inches during the
weekend and through the early parts of next week. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be higher than normal each day given
this ample moisture. Convective activity will be largely diurnally
driven, with low PoPs through much of the mornings, increasing
through the early afternoons, and peaking between 60-80% in the mid
to late afternoon hours each day. The southern end of the shortwave
advancing through the Tennessee Valley region on Sunday afternoon is
expected to contribute to locally higher chances still across the
far northern tier. While organized severe weather is not expected, a
few storms each day could become strong and capable of producing
frequent lightning and gusty winds. Furthermore, with high PWATs,
these storms will be efficient rainfall producers, which could lead
to isolated flooding concerns. Patchy fog will be possible during
the overnight and early morning hours, particularly where soils are
saturated from previous rainfall and cloud cover dissipates.
Considering the chances for showers and thunderstorms each day and
the associated cloud cover, high temperatures will run near normal
for mid-June this weekend, in the 80s across the area. Low
temperatures will closely reflect the dewpoints, and will run about
4-8 degrees above daily normals. Temperatures will begin to climb in
the early portions of next week, particularly to the south of the
Fall Line, where highs will rise into the low to mid 90s. These
temperatures, combined with the aforementioned dewpoints, will
contribute to maximum heat indices of 100-105 degrees in portions of
central Georgia on Monday through Wednesday.
King
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025
Primarily low VFR to MVFR through afternoon. Scattered shra tsra
developing across region and will continue through at least 1Z.
Cigs fall overnight to IFR with some scattered LIFR psbl
particularly in NE Georgia. Winds mostly light from SE turn to SW
tomorrow afternoon. Variable within or near thunderstorms.
Thunderstorm chances return tomorrow afternoon.
//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on PoP timing.
High confidence all other elements.
SM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 69 84 69 85 / 60 60 60 80
Atlanta 70 85 71 86 / 50 50 50 80
Blairsville 64 79 65 81 / 60 70 60 90
Cartersville 69 86 69 87 / 50 60 60 80
Columbus 71 88 71 88 / 40 60 40 80
Gainesville 69 82 70 84 / 60 60 60 80
Macon 70 88 71 88 / 50 60 50 80
Rome 69 85 69 87 / 40 60 60 80
Peachtree City 69 87 69 86 / 50 50 50 70
Vidalia 71 89 72 88 / 60 80 50 80
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...SM