740
FXUS62 KFFC 091927
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
327 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025
...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Key Messages:
- Best timing for additional storms will be 6pm to 11pm. Environment
remains favorable for a few of these to be severe. Slight
Risk (level 2 out of 5) remains in effect for entire CWA. See
discussion below for conditional nature of threat.
- Clearing in north Georgia tomorrow, rain chances continue in
central Georgia.
This Afternoon into Early Evening:
Convective models are (understandably) struggling a bit this
afternoon given the plethora of convection, outflow boundaries,
differential heating boundaries, etc. that are in place across the
southeast. The weak convective line that pushed through north and
central Georgia has left a stable layer of air in place across the
state as noted by the lack of much of a cu field in its wake. Some
cloud cover from it continues to linger in especially north Georgia,
limiting day time heating. This system had a larger cold pool behind
it from storms overnight in central AL that has substantially
weakened as cloud cover further to the south has mixed out from it
and the surface airmass has begun to heat. Further complicating
things is the presence of convection to the south of the CWA that
has fired along a leftover moisture/CAPE gradient from storms
yesterday, and convection that has fired along the approaching
frontal boundary to the NW across TN. This all is creating a rather
complicated picture for convective chances this afternoon that is
going to be very conditional on 1) effectiveness of surface heating
for the remainder of the afternoon, 2) how much moisture is cut off
by convection to the south, and 3) how well the storms across TN are
able to remain organized despite pushing into an airmass that is
less than favorable for convective maintenance, especially from an
instability standpoint.
Highest confidence this evening in seeing storms, and especially a
severe storm, can likely be painted across central Georgia. This is
where the best instability has popped, with MLCAPE in excess of 1500
J/kg. Additionally, ongoing storms to the south may be able to
organize some cold pools that push outflow into the area that may
act as additional lift for evening to early overnight storm
development. Shear is one of the limiting factors in this area, as
it remains relatively weak with primary trough well to the north.
Primary concerns remain damaging wind gusts and an isolated storm
capable of producing 1" hail.
In northern Georgia, including the metro, recovery has been slow.
However, there are signs that the surface is becoming conducive to
convective development, with cu field noted back into northern AL.
Some convection elevated convection has begun to pop in parts of far
north Georgia where the cold pool has run up against some of the
mountains, though this will likely remain subsevere. Models are not
excited at the prospect of seeing the ongoing convection across TN
hold together into GA, instead keeping it to the north where better
instability and surface heating has occurred. So, we are likely
dependent on seeing the surface destabilize within Georgia or
eastern AL to get storms into the area this evening. This is
definitely a lower probability occurrence, given what current
observations look like, but if it does get going, we could certainly
see a few severe storms given shear profiles are a bit better
overall across northern GA in ATL. Primary concerns again here will
be some isolated damaging wind gusts. Hail threat may be lower,
given the more limited instability.
Overnight Into Tomorrow:
Showers and convection may continue into the overnight, especially
in central Georgia where models do hint at the possibility of some
continued redevelopment, though this would likely remain below
severe thresholds. Clearing should begin across north Georgia
tomorrow as the frontal system approaches by the morning hours.
Given the moist airmass in place, expecting we could see some patchy
fog and possibly even some areas of dense fog that develop tonight
across the CWA. Tomorrow will see continued thunderstorm and rain
chances across central Georgia where the frontal boundary is
expected to stall later in the day, creating a moisture gradient
across the state. Severe chances are very low, with almost no
shear in place and instability likely limited by the convective
overturning of the previous day warming the upper levels via
latent heat release. Won`t rule out seeing one or two storms get
a little aggressive, however. Drier conditions should settle in
across north Georgia, with the metro rain chances dependent on
just how far south and how quickly the frontal boundary sinks.
Highs tomorrow will be in the 80s across the state, but lows
tomorrow night will see big differences, with near 70s across
central Georgia, but sinking to the low 60s to even upper 50s
across north Georgia. Lovely for June in the south, for sure.
Lusk
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Key Messages:
- Higher than normal moisture is expected across the Atlanta metro
into central Georgia on Wednesday, spreading into north Georgia
by late Thursday.
- Enhanced moisture will continue to pool across Georgia through
the end of the week, under the influence of southerly flow
induced by a stalled frontal boundary and a subsequent series
of lows from over the Midwest.
- Rain chances will increase through the end of the week and
weekend.
Moisture levels over central Georgia will be near seasonal normals
on Wednesday; there is lower confidence of moisture levels over the
Atlanta metro. Model guidance suggests that a front will stall over
Georgia, though there is some uncertainty exactly where - either
over central or south Georgia. The further north solution of the GFS
puts the near-normal moisture over the Atlanta metro, while the
further south ECMWF has below-normal moisture over the Atlanta
metro. As such, there is below normal confidence in shower activity
for Wednesday.
Increasing moisture is expected through the end of the week,
however. Southerly flow will pull Gulf moisture over the
southeastern US, and moisture convergence will keep above-normal
moisture over Georgia through the weekend. Model guidance suggests
precipitable water values will increase each day. From the 12Z
sounding climatology, the 90th percentile of precipitable water for
the next week is around 1.65-1.70 inches; both the GFS and ECMWF
have values at or exceeding that starting Thursday afternoon over
most of Georgia, and pushing across north Georgia by Thursday night.
A series of disturbances are forecast to develop over the Midwest on
Thursday through Saturday, shifting over the eastern US and further
reinforcing the southerly flow bringing in Gulf moisture, as well as
also supplementing moisture and instability levels on their own.
Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase through the
end of the week and remain high through the weekend, with PoPs
around 70-85% across northern and central Georgia by Saturday.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 90s
through the second half of the week into early next week, while
overnight lows will be in the low 60s to near 70, increasing by
Friday to the mid 60s to low 70s.
CRS
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Challenging forecast over next few hours for metro TAF sites.
Rainfall across AL has dissipated, meaning SHRA chances through
00Z are lowered, but TSRA chances starting around 00Z have
increased a bit. Questions remain on if day time heating can allow
for thunderstorm development, however. Higher confidence at
CSG/MCN for TSRA tonight. Otherwise, winds are W to WSW at 8-12
kts, with some gustier winds into MCN and CSG approaching 20 kts.
Cigs have also dissipated this afternoon into a developing cu
field. MVFR to IFR cigs expected area wide tonight. Some
possibility of fog development and lowered vsby.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium-low on convective forecast this evening. Medium high on
cigs/vsbys tomorrow morning.
Lusk
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 67 84 64 88 / 50 20 10 20
Atlanta 68 85 66 88 / 50 20 10 20
Blairsville 61 80 56 83 / 60 10 0 10
Cartersville 66 85 62 88 / 50 10 0 10
Columbus 69 87 66 89 / 70 50 20 50
Gainesville 67 84 64 87 / 50 10 0 10
Macon 69 86 66 88 / 70 60 30 50
Rome 66 86 62 88 / 50 10 0 10
Peachtree City 66 85 63 88 / 50 30 10 20
Vidalia 71 87 70 89 / 60 60 50 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....CRS
AVIATION...Lusk