869
FXUS62 KFFC 110139
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
939 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025
...Evening Update...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025
Forecast remains on track for this evening. A couple of thunderstorms
are ongoing across north and central Georgia, but expect
lightning to continue to taper off over the next couple of hours with
the loss of diurnal heating. Otherwise, expect patchy fog to
begin to develop after midnight due to lingering moisture. Lows
should drop into the upper-50s to near 70, warmer in areas with
increased cloud cover.
96
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025
Key Messages:
- Scattered thunderstorms are expected through early evening. A
few storms will be strong, with a severe storm or two possible.
- Areas of fog expected overnight into early tomorrow (Wednesday)
morning, especially across central Georgia.
Scattered showers and storms have developed across metro Atlanta
and we have received a report of pea sized hail in the strongest
storm thus far. Localized damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning,
and heavy rainfall will also be hazards in strong storms today.
Storms may cluster together as the afternoon continues (as current
radar trends have begun to suggest) and track/redevelop toward
the southeast in tandem with a slowly sinking stationary front.
Will need to keep an eye on an increasing downburst/straight-line
wind threat as storms move into central Georgia, where SPC
mesoanalysis indicates ~1000 J/kg of DCAPE. Deep layer wind shear
is weak (<20 kts) so not expecting an organized severe weather
event to unfold.
Winds are progged to go light to calm overnight, and given the
soupy airmass in place, expecting that areas of fog will develop
(especially across central Georgia). The longwave trough currently
over the eastern third of the CONUS will shift eastward and
dampen through tonight, giving way to a shortwave ridge over the
Southeast tomorrow. The aforementioned stationary front is progged
to remain draped in the vicinity of the I-20 corridor, so have
maintained chance PoPs (30% to 50%) across central Georgia
tomorrow afternoon and early evening. Similar to today, storms are
expected to remain sub-severe, posing the typical summertime
storm hazards -- gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.
Martin
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025
Key Messages:
- Moisture levels across Georgia on Monday morning will be at
least near seasonal normals, trending towards above normal,
particularly for the Atlanta metro area into central Georgia.
- Enhanced moisture will continue to pool across Georgia through
the end of the week, under the influence of southerly flow
induced by a stalled frontal boundary and a subsequent series
of lows from over the Midwest.
- Rain chances will increase through the end of the week and
weekend.
Moisture levels are forecast to be at least near seasonal normals
on Thursday morning. However, additional moisture is forecast to
be pulled across Georgia in southerly flow. A weak wedge of high
pressure will cede to a frontal boundary stretched along the Gulf
coast, associated with a low over the Labrador Sea as well as a
weaker developing low over Texas, through the day on Thursday,
reinforcing the southerly flow. The GFS suggests that the frontal
boundary will be slightly further north compared to the ECMWF,
resulting in above-normal moisture to start the day. Regardless,
moisture levels are forecast to increase through the end of the
week.
Weak disturbances developing over the Midwest and shifting
eastward, as well as an approaching mid- to upper-level trough
will help maintain the southerly flow over the southeastern US.
There is good model consensus in higher-than-typical moisture
levels, with model guidance indicating precipitable water values
well above the 90th percentile for this time of year starting as
early as Thursday morning or as late as Friday afternoon. This
resultant increase in moisture is expected to fuel a subsequent
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. Increases continue
into the weekend, and the high levels of moisture are maintained
into at least early next workweek. As such, an active weather
pattern is forecast to persist into next week, with PoPs around
65-85% through the weekend.
CRS
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 744 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025
TSRA that impacted the airport thru issuance time will continue
to taper off/diminish to the southeast, leaving behind SCT-BKN
cigs at 4-10kft in its wake. Beyond that, primarily VFR exp thru
the pd. MVFR vsbys in FG/BR likely beginning 09-10Z thru 15-16Z.
Cannot rule out a pd of BKN IFR cigs (due in part to dense FG/BR)
around daybreak, but confidence is low. Best chances for TSRA on
Wednesday aftn will be relegated to CSG/MCN from 20-02Z. Winds to
continue to favor the W side at 7kts or less, but will likely go
CALM/VRB overnight.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence overnight/early morning ceilings/visibility
restrictions.
High confidence all other elements.
96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 69 85 65 88 / 10 100 10 10
Atlanta 70 84 67 88 / 0 100 10 10
Blairsville 58 78 57 82 / 10 60 0 0
Cartersville 68 80 62 88 / 0 20 0 0
Columbus 71 86 69 88 / 20 0 20 30
Gainesville 67 82 64 86 / 0 40 0 0
Macon 70 87 68 89 / 100 10 30 30
Rome 65 84 62 89 / 0 20 0 0
Peachtree City 69 84 65 88 / 50 0 10 20
Vidalia 72 88 71 89 / 100 80 50 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....CRS
AVIATION...96